There is a metric on KenPom called continuity, which measures the percentage of a team’s returning minutes from the season before. It is a hot-button topic in the NIL era, as the rise of the transfer portal has led to increasingly extreme roster turnover. Average continuity is at an all-time low this year, down from 39.1 percent last season to 34.0. The prevailing thought is that if the talent disparity isn’t too significant, high continuity presents a major advantage. But has the power of continuity been overrated?
The results this season indicate so. Along with ten other schools, Kentucky has a continuity score of 0.0, meaning its roster is completely new. For that reason, coupled with the transition from John Calipari to Mark Pope, the Wildcats were projected to finish eighth in the SEC and viewed more as a fun experiment than a legitimate threat to make a run in March. Yes, Kentucky lost to Arkansas over the weekend, but it also has wins over Duke, Florida, Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Tennessee. The success of Pope’s offense (ranked third in the country in points per game and 11th in assists per game) has dispelled the notion that continuity equates to chemistry.
The evidence goes well beyond Kentucky. Every player in Duke’s rotation outside of Tyrese Proctor and Caleb Foster is either a freshman or a transfer. Memphis, Illinois, Vanderbilt and Louisville – four programs that have far exceeded expectations – rank 315th, 345th, 347th and 352nd in continuity, respectively. Maryland, one of the hottest teams in college basketball right now, starts just one returner. St. John’s sits atop the Big East with a lineup that consists of several transfers and freshmen (270th in continuity).
The advantages of high continuity tend to show most during the first month of the season, as newly-constructed teams are in the early stages of gelling. And yet, schools like Gonzaga, which has a continuity percentage of 72.7 (fourth in the nation), lost to Kentucky and West Virginia (another team with 0.0 continuity) before mid-December. Likewise, a Houston team that returned four starters dropped three games in November, albeit all to Quad 1 opponents. The Cougars also lost to Texas Tech, which starts three transfers, on Saturday.
Maintaining some degree of continuity certainly helps, but what we’re seeing this season suggests it is far from necessary to be successful. Programs with strong cultures and good coaches can assemble winning teams relying mostly on the portal, as long as they recruit the right players.
Rick Pitino has St. John’s (19-3, 10-1) in the driver’s seat in the Big East. His son, Richard Pitino, has New Mexico (18-4, 10-1) atop the Mountain West. I believe both coaches will lead their teams to conference regular season titles. Led by sensational junior guard Donovan Dent, the Lobos are one of my favorite sleepers for the NCAA Tournament (more to come on them soon).
Hoops HQ’s bracketologist Brad Wachtel wrote last week that Gonzaga is not a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. A win at Saint Mary’s on Saturday would have helped its cause tremendously, but it couldn’t get the job done. Despite all of the Bulldogs’ struggles to this point, I still believe they have the ability to keep their streak of nine straight Sweet 16 appearances alive.
Gonzaga has the tenth most experienced roster in college basketball, an elite coach, high-level shooting, solid rebounding, an improving defense and one of the nation’s best point guards in Ryan Nembhard. All of its seven losses came down to the wire (three were in overtime), so its 16-7 record is a bit deceiving.
Another bubble team I have my eye on: Indiana. Things are trending up in Bloomington, even though the Hoosiers have lost five of their last six. They hung with Purdue at Mackey Arena on Friday and should have beaten red-hot Maryland a week ago. Their upcoming schedule is brutal, but that also means they have plenty of opportunities to boost their resume: at Wisconsin, vs. Michigan, at Michigan State, vs. UCLA, vs. Purdue, vs. Penn State, at Washington, at Oregon, vs. Ohio State. With sophomore wing Mackenzie Mgbako and senior big man Oumar Ballo playing better of late, I believe the Hoosiers will emerge from that gauntlet with the necessary wins to creep into the NCAA Tournament.
What Tom Izzo and Michigan State have done this season is very impressive, but this team is about to fall in the Big Ten standings because of its difficult remaining schedule and one glaring deficiency: its lack of shooting. Michigan State suffered its first conference loss on Saturday, 70-64, at USC. The Trojans played what Eric Musselman called “paint ball” on defense, packing the interior and daring the Spartans to shoot from the perimeter. The strategy worked as the Spartans made just five threes (on 15 attempts) compared to USC’s seven, a difference that was perfectly reflected in the final score. On the season, Michigan State ranks 349th in three-pointers per game, 329th in three-point attempts per game and 351st in three-point percentage. Look for other teams to employ Musselman’s strategy (or at least some iteration of it) against MSU going forward.
I know everybody hates replay reviews, but the NCAA should really implement the NBA’s “Challenge” rule. There are too many controversial foul calls in close games.
Also, the definition of a “Flagrant 2” clearly needs to be loosened. Officials should have more freedom to decide whether the foul in question was intentional or not. Texas Tech forward J.T. Toppin never should have gotten ejected for this. And if a player receives a second technical foul for harmless taunting, like Hunter Sallis did in Wake Forest’s loss to Louisville, he should not be ejected. Or, better yet, we should just refrain from calling technical fouls for harmless taunting.
We need a college basketball version of NFL Redzone for Saturdays and John Fanta should be the host!
Game of the Weekend: Arkansas 89, Kentucky 79
What an unforgettable night in Lexington. John Calipari was showered with boos upon entering Rupp Arena, but his team silenced the crowd. Junior wing Adou Thiero, sophomore guard D.J. Wagner and sophomore forward Zvonimir Ivisic, all of whom followed Cal from Kentucky to Arkansas, combined for 52 points. Senior guard Johnell Davis, a transfer from FAU, pitched in 18 points and six assists. As a team, the Razorbacks shot 55 percent from the field and 52 percent from three. “It’s hard to win here,” Calipari said afterwards. “I gotta be honest with you, I looked up a couple times and I thought we were losing because I kept looking at Kentucky instead of Arkansas.”
Player of the Weekend: Kadary Richmond, Guard, St. John’s
Richmond hit the game-winning jumper in St. John’s 68-66 victory over Providence at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. The highly touted transfer from Seton Hall finished with 24 points, eight rebounds, eight assists and three steals and nailed both of his attempts from behind the arc.
Five Games to Watch This Week
Monday at 9:00 p.m. ET on ESPN: Iowa State at Kansas
Both these Big 12 powerhouses suffered brutal losses over the weekend. Iowa State lost by 19 at home to Kansas State and Kansas blew a 21-point lead – the largest in program history – to lose at Baylor. Who will bounce back in Lawrence?
Tuesday at 6:30 p.m. ET on FS1: Marquette at St. John’s
The two top teams in the Big East square off at the World’s Most Famous Arena. Fascinating matchup between Kam Jones and Kadary Richmond.
Tuesday at 10:00 p.m. ET on Peacock: Michigan State at UCLA
After losing four straight games to begin league play, UCLA has won five in a row. Let’s see if the Bruins can keep it rolling against the No. 1 team in the Big Ten.
Friday at 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX: St. John’s at UConn
The likely return of Liam McNeeley. Dan Hurley vs. Rick Pitino. The atmosphere at Gampel will be incredible for this one.
Saturday at 4:00 p.m. ET on ESPN: Florida at Auburn
The game of the week. A pair of national title contenders with elite offenses meet in The Jungle.
Additional Weekend Notes
- Injury news: Northwestern guard Brooks Barnhizer is out for the rest of the season with a foot injury. Tennessee guard Zakai Zeigler missed Saturday’s win over Florida due to a knee injury sustained against Kentucky on Tuesday. His status is day-to-day. Forward Igor Milicic Jr. was also out against the Gators due to illness. Rutgers guard Dylan Harper (ankle) and Kentucky guard Lamont Butler (shoulder) were sidelined all week. There is no indication when either will be back. According to Dan Hurley, UConn forward Liam McNeeley, who has been out for a month, should be at full strength for the Huskies’ game against St. John’s on Friday. Jeremy Roach (concussion) and Langston Love (ankle) did not play this weekend, but both were listed as game-time decisions. The Bears could really use them back since guard V.J. Edgecombe suffered an ankle injury against Kansas and no timetable for his return has been provided.
- Speaking of Baylor-Kansas, the Jayhawks blew a 21-point lead in Waco, eventually losing 81-70. As The Field of 68 pointed out, it was the second time in a week that Kansas has dropped a game in which it had a 97 percent win probability or higher in the second half.
- Senior wing Coleman Hawkins has been widely criticized for his struggles at K-State this season, but the high-profile transfer shined in the Wildcats’ shocking win over Iowa State on Saturday: 17 points, seven rebounds, three assists and four steals.