Welcome to the first edition of the Hoops HQ Bubble Watch. If you think it’s too early to be launching this exercise, you haven’t paid close attention to the calendar. We are just a few days away from the start of February, which means we are less than seven weeks away from Selection Sunday. The closer we get to the Big Day, the faster the pages in the calendar are going to start to turn – and the more every game counts.

This is especially true for teams that would be on the proverbial NCAA Tournament bubble if the tournament were selected and seeded today. This is the time of the season when one bad loss for a mid-major team could potentially end its chances for an at-large bid, while a dynamic week for a high-major team could take a team from not being mentioned to being squarely on the bubble. The swings will be wild. So will the ride.

I’ve broken the Bubble Picture down into three categories:

“On the List…for Now” are teams that are in the clear at the moment, but could fall out due to a couple of bad losses.

“Invitations Printed” are teams that are all but 100 percent assured of receiving an at-large bid should they need one.

“The Uninvited” are teams that would be unlikely to receive an at-large bid if the tournament field were selected today.

Before continuing, it’s important to note the following:

  • Result-Based Metrics (SOR, KPI, WAB): these metrics determine inclusion into the field
  • Predictive Metrics (BPI, Ken Pom, Torvik): these metrics play a role in the seeding of teams

Regarding the NET Quadrants, a Quad 1 game meets one of the following criteria:

  • A home game against an opponent ranked 1-30 in the NET
  • A neutral court game against an opponent ranked 1-50
  • An away game against an opponent ranked 1-75

First, here’s a real-time look at my cut line:

Last Four Teams In

  • 1.
    Pittsburgh
  • 2.
    Ohio State
  • 3.
    UCF
  • 4.
    Drake

First Four Teams Out

  • 2.
    ASU
  • 3.
    Wake Forest
  • 4.
    Indiana
  • 5.
    Xavier

ACC

Invitations Printed: Duke (No. 1 seed)

On the List…for Now: Clemson (6), Louisville (6), Pitt (Last 4 In)

Uninvited: Wake Forest (First 4 Out), North Carolina (Next 4 Out), SMU

  • Clemson is solidly in the field right now. The Tigers hold wins over Kentucky, Wake Forest and at Pitt. Most importantly, their result-based metrics avg 24.6. As long as it continues to beat the teams it’s supposed to beat (and there are many in the ACC that it should beat), Clemson will be in good shape.
  • Louisville absolutely dominated Wake Forest on Tuesday night. The Cardinals entered the day ranked No. 25 in the NET, while Wake Forest was No. 71. The NET is more geared towards being a predictive metric and it seemed to be spot on with this one.  The biggest strength for Louisville right now are its five Q1 wins and top 20 result-based metrics. Of the Cardinals eleven remaining regular season games, TEN are against teams that won’t be receiving an at-large bid. Go take care of business.
  • Pittsburgh has a concerning resume to me. The Panthers are just 1-6 vs Q1 opponents with its lone key win coming on the road against another bubble team in Ohio State. Pitt is off to a good start in a make-or-break week as it defeated UNC 73-65 on Tuesday night. While it’s an important win, it wasn’t enough to elevate the Panthers out of being one of the last four teams in the field.
  • The biggest attribute on the resume of Wake Forest is a SOR (strength-of-record) rank of 27. The Demon Deacons are just 1-6 vs Q1 opponents with its lone win coming against Michigan on a neutral court. Even if Wake cracks the field, it will be difficult for them to not end up as a First Four team in Dayton thanks to poor predictive metrics (NET: 71, T-Rank: 78).
  • North Carolina is 0-7 against Q1A opponents and just 1-8 vs Q1. What’s saving the Tar Heels right now is the fact that it’s played a top 5 NCSOS and have the metrics of a team that should be a 9 or 10-seed. Beating BC in OT certainly didn’t help the Tar Heels cause nor did losing to fellow bubble team Pitt on Tuesday night. They need QUALITY wins. And, oh look, they get to play at Duke on Saturday!
  • SMU won’t be taken seriously until it beats somebody of note. Interesting remaining schedule too. The Mustangs get Pitt, Wake Forest and Clemson all at home and every road game left is winnable. This team needs to stockpile wins.

Big East

Invitations Printed: Marquette (2)

On the List…for Now: St. John’s (6), UConn (7), Creighton (8)

The Uninvited: Xavier (First 4 Out), Villanova

  • St. John’s is up to No. 15 in the AP Poll, but currently sits as just a 6-seed in the NCAA Tournament picture. Reason? Quality wins. The Johnnies have just one win over the field (New Mexico) and one Q1 win (at Xavier). Even though the Big East is down, there are still a good number of opportunities that remain on the Red Storm’s schedule to improve its overall seeding.
  • UConn is just 3-3 since Liam McNeeley injured his ankle. The Huskies need him back to get out of this mediocre funk it’s in. One thing to note, assuming McNeeley comes back healthy, the Huskies will be judged by how they play with him on the floor. This very well could impact their seeding in a positive way.
  • Creighton is currently in good shape as an 8-seed. The Blue Jays have wins over Kansas, St. John’s and at UConn. With solid metrics across the board, they still might want to avoid a slip-up to a Big East bottom dweller. 
  • Xavier is on the outside looking in at the moment, but the Musketeers are lurking. Massive opportunity Wednesday at Creighton. They’ll put themselves squarely on the cut-line if they pull off the upset. 

Big Ten

Invitations Printed: Purdue (2), Michigan State (3), Oregon (4), Illinois (4), Wisconsin (4), Michigan (5) 

On the List…for Now: Maryland (8), UCLA (8), Ohio State (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: Indiana (First 4 Out), Nebraska (out), Iowa (out), Northwestern (out), USC (out), Penn St (out)

  • Maryland had arguably the best week of any team in college basketball last week. Going on the road, especially in a league like the Big Ten, and winning at Illinois and at Indiana is no easy task and has done wonders for its resume. The Terps are owners of a No. 28 SOR rank and went from the Last 4 In/First 4 Out conversation, to being safely in the field for now.
  • UCLA has seemingly righted the ship after losing four games in a row by winning four in a row. The Bruins went on the road Monday night and beat rival USC, a team that has been playing much better of late. UCLA’s next three games will be played at Pauley Pavilion with two of them coming against Oregon and Michigan State. A couple of wins there will boost the Bruins up multiple seed lines.
  • Ohio State took care of business Monday night against Iowa and improved its record against Q1/Q2 teams to 5-8. Not great, but the Buckeyes have the ever-so-important key wins at Purdue and against Kentucky and Texas on neutral courts. Ohio State doesn’t need top tier wins, it just needs quantity to rise up in seeding.  

Big 12

Invitations Printed: Iowa State (1), Houston (3), Kansas (3) 

On the List…for Now: Arizona (6), Texas Tech (7), West Virginia (7), Baylor (10), UCF (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: Arizona State (First 4 Out), BYU, Cincinnati, TCU, Utah

  • Arizona came up with its best win of the season on Monday night as the Wildcats took down Iowa State in overtime. Winners of ten of eleven, the Wildcats are now 4-6 vs Q1 and 10-0 against all other quadrants. The ceiling for this team remains high due to its strong predictive metrics (BPI: 8, POM: 14, T-Rank: 11), but it’s going to need to continue to add high-level wins in order to move up the board. 
  • Only three teams in the country have more Q1A wins than West Virginia. The Mountaineers have arguably been college basketball’s biggest surprise team with wins over Iowa State, Gonzaga (n), Arizona (n) and at Kansas. However, they’re in a bit of a slump right now, having lost 3 of 4 and 4 of 6. Holding steady as a No. 7 seed, West Virginia with another Q1A opportunity as it hosts Houston on Wednesday.
  • Baylor has a lot of work left to do. The Bears are 0-5 vs Q1A opponents, 2-6 Q1 with only one win against the current field (St. John’s). Ample opportunities remain in Big 12 play, but they’re going to need to come through with multiple quality wins to feel good about reaching the Dance.
  • Getting quality wins away from home is one of the best ways to impress the selection committee and UCF has done that with wins at Texas Tech and at Arizona State. Couple that with a win over Texas A&M, a strong NCSOS and a 31.0 avg result-based metric and the Knights find themselves in the last four in for now. Biggest weakness of this resume are the predictive metrics – those must improve to get out of playing in Dayton. A hard fought loss at Kansas on Tuesday night surely helps those metrics.
  • Arizona State is on the outside looking in right now due in large part to its 2-7 Q1 record and 6-8 Q1/Q2 record. The Sun Devils do have some good wins (St Mary’s, New Mexico, at WVU), but not top tier wins. It’s a resume similar to Ohio State, but the quality of wins are a notch below the Buckeyes.

SEC

Invitations Printed: Auburn (1), Alabama (1), Tennessee (2), Florida (2), Kentucky (3), Texas A&M (4), Mississippi State (5), Ole Miss (5), Missouri (7)

On the List…for Now: Oklahoma (9), Vanderbilt (9), Texas (10), Georgia (11)

The Uninvited: LSU, Arkansas

Is it really possible the SEC gets THIRTEEN teams into the field? Yes, it is. However, my guess is it’s probably not likely. That being said, 9 of the top 13 teams will all be in barring a complete collapse.

  • Texas played itself into the bracket by defeating Texas A&M over the weekend. The Longhorns still have a decent number of negatives on its resume, including a poor NCSOS (279) and KPI (55), as well as being under .500 against Q1 and Q1/Q2 opponents. A significant positive for Texas is that its predictive metrics should give it a nice boost seed-wise if the upward trend of knocking off teams in the field continues.
  • Vanderbilt picked up a much needed win vs Kentucky over the weekend. The Commodores are now 2-2 vs Q1A opponents and boast a top 25 SOR. The part of the resume that scares me is the 337th NCSOS which will become a factor if Vanderbilt ends up on the bubble in March.
  • Georgia is one of the few SEC teams whose resume is trending in the wrong direction. The Bulldogs are in a funk right now and are just 2-6 vs Q1 with no significant road wins yet. One feather in its cap is that they have not lost a game to a Q2/Q3/Q4 opponent. Result-based metrics are still a solid 37.3. 

OTHER CANDIDATES

Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, VCU, Dayton, Utah State, Memphis, San Diego State, Drake, North Texas, UC Irvine, Boise State, UC San Diego, New Mexico, McNeese, Oregon State

Invitations printed: Memphis (5)

On the List…for Now: Utah State (8), Gonzaga (9), St. Mary’s (9), San Diego State (10), New Mexico (10), Drake (Last Four In)

The Uninvited: VCU, Dayton, North Texas, UC Irvine, Boise State, UC San Diego, McNeese, Oregon State

  • Wait, Gonzaga isn’t a lock? This is not a misprint. The Bulldogs are just 2-5 against Q1 opponents and failed to beat any upper-echelon seeded teams in non-conference play. While they are No. 15 in the NET, we have to remind ourselves that NET determines seeding and not inclusion. Gonzaga has the No. 52 SOR which is a problem. Only two teams received an at-large bid last year who had a worse NET than what it currently has. Drake currently sits as my last team in the field. The Bulldogs are 2-0 vs Q1 and 3-1 vs Q1/Q2 opponents and have a really nice win over Vanderbilt on a neutral court which is looking better by the day. Almost of equal importance is having the No. 40 strength-of-record which is a number that typically represents an at-large team. With all that being said, Drake is going to have a difficult time maintaining its position in the field as the Missouri Valley does not provide any significant opportunities for it to enhance its resume.