Welcome to Bubble Watch

Selection Sunday has arrived and we still have some unanswered questions regarding the bubble. Colorado State defeated Boise State in the Mountain West Conference championship game to steal a bid from another potential at-large team. It was unlikely Colorado State would earn an at-large bid had it lost, so someone had its dreams crushed. Life on the bubble is not for the faint of heart! With regards to Boise State, it could in fact be one of those teams who becomes affected. The Broncos have six wins against at-large teams, which is a strong number, and really need to hope we don’t see any more bid-stealers on Sunday.

So, who has a chance to become a bid-stealer on Sunday? Well, if Memphis loses to UAB in the AAC championship game, we will see one fewer at-large bid. Also, if VCU fails to beat George Mason in the Atlantic 10 championship game, there is at least a chance that the Rams still get an at-large bid. As a result, if you’re a team on the bubble, you are rooting hard for Memphis and VCU on Sunday.

Here is how I view the bubble right now. There are six teams for two spots in the field. These teams are Xavier, Texas, Indiana, Boise State, North Carolina and UC Irvine. Below are the strengths and weaknesses of each resume.

Xavier – Strengths: 43 SOR, 48 WAB, won at Marquette, no bad losses, 3 wins vs at-large teams Weaknesses: 1-9 Q1, 60 KPI, 6-9 r/n record

Indiana – Strengths: 35 KPI, 46 WAB, won at Michigan State, no bad losses Weaknesses: 4-13 Q1, two wins over at-large teams, 9-13 Q1/Q2, 5-9 r/n record

Boise State – Strengths: 6 wins over at-large teams, 8-8 Q1/Q2, 11-8 r/n Weaknesses: Quad 4 loss, 52 SOR

Texas – Strengths: 7 Q1 wins, no bad losses, 45 WAB Weaknesses: 285 NCSOS, 10-15 Q1/Q2, 12-15 Q1-Q3, 54 SOR, 58 KPI

North Carolina – Strengths: 36 SOR, WAB, 5 NCSOS Weaknesses: 1-12 Q1, 0-10 Q1A, 55 KPI, 1 win over at-large team

UC Irvine – Strengths: 4-3 Q1/Q2, 18 wins away from home (most in nation), 39 KPI Weaknesses: Three Q3 losses, 55 SOR, 1 win over field

Here are Sunday’s bubble games:

VCU vs George Mason: There’s a chance VCU gets an at-large bid with a loss

Memphis vs UAB: A UAB win would mean one fewer at-large bid

As usual, I’ve broken the Bubble Picture down into four categories:

“Invitations Sent” are teams that are all but 100 percent assured of receiving an at-large bid even if they don’t win another game.

“Invitations Printed” are teams that are safely in the field for now, but still have work to do.

“On the List…for Now” are teams that are in the clear at the moment, but could fall out due to a couple of bad losses.

“The Uninvited” are teams that would be very unlikely to receive an at-large bid if the tournament field were selected today.

Before continuing, it’s important to note the following:

Result-Based Metrics (SOR, KPI, WAB): these metrics help determine inclusion into the field
Predictive Metrics (BPI, Ken Pom, Torvik): these metrics play a role in the seeding of teams

Regarding the NET Quadrants, a Quad 1 game meets one of the following criteria:

A home game against an opponent ranked 1-30 in the NET
A neutral court game against an opponent ranked 1-50
An away game against an opponent ranked 1-75

First, here’s a real-time look at my cut line:

Last Four Byes

1.
Utah State
2.
Arkansas
3.
Oklahoma
4.
Vanderbilt

Last Four Teams In

1.
West Virginia
2.
San Diego State
3.
Indiana
4.
Boise State

First Four Teams Out

1.
Xavier
2.
Texas
3.
North Carolina
4.
UC Irvine

Next Four Teams Out

1.
Ohio State
2.
Dayton
3.
Nebraska
4.
Wake Forest

ACC

Invitations Sent: Duke (No. 1 seed), Clemson (5), Louisville (6)

Invitations Printed: None

On the List…for Now: None

The Uninvited: North Carolina (First 4 Out), Wake Forest (Next 4 Out)

North Carolina fell to 1-12 against Q1 opponents when it fell to Duke for the third time this season. The Tar Heels own just one win over the field (UCLA), but still have top 40 resume metrics which continues to give them a pulse.

Big East

Invitations Sent: St. John’s (2), Marquette (8), UConn (8), Creighton (8)

Invitations Printed: None

On the List…for Now: None

The Uninvited: Xavier (First 4 Out)

Xavier finished the regular season strong, but bowed out in its first game in the Big East Tournament against Marquette. Now the Musketeers must wait and hope there aren’t a ton of bid-stealers. Xavier is just 1-9 against Q1 opponents, but does have three wins over at-large teams (UConn, Creighton, at Marquette). Sporting a strong SOR ranking at No. 40, Xavier needs teams some help from other bubble teams to increase its chances for a bid.

Big Ten

Invitations Sent: Michigan State (2), Wisconsin (3), Oregon (4), Maryland (4), Purdue (5), Michigan (5), UCLA (6), Illinois (6)

Invitations Printed: None

On the List…for Now: Indiana (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: Ohio State (Next 4 Out), Nebraska (Next 4 Out)

Indiana lost its first game in the Big Ten Tournament to Oregon and now the Hoosiers will be sweating it out until Selection Sunday. They own a strong victory at Michigan State, but are just 4-13 versus Q1 opponents and only have two wins over at-large teams. The Hoosiers are going to need some help. And if we happen to see multiple bid-stealers, I don’t see them receiving a bid.
Ohio State lost its opening round game to Iowa in the Big Ten Tournament. The Buckeyes finish the season at 17-15 with wins over Kentucky, Texas, Maryland and at Purdue. That overall record is a significant issue and will likely be the reason they’re kept out of the field.
Nebraska lost six of its last seven games to end the regular season. After losing at home to Iowa on Sunday, the Cornhuskers failed to reach the Big Ten Tournament. As a result, there’s nothing else they can do to improve their standing for the NCAA Tournament. They picked a bad time to play their worst basketball of the season.

Big 12

Invitations Sent: Houston (1), Texas Tech (3), Iowa State (3), Arizona (4), BYU (6), Kansas (7)

Invitations Printed: Baylor (9), West Virginia (12)

On the List…for Now: None

The Uninvited: None

SEC

Invitations Sent: Auburn (1), Florida (1), Alabama (2), Tennessee (2), Kentucky (3), Texas A&M (4), Ole Miss (5), Missouri (7), Mississippi State (9)

Invitations Printed: Georgia (9), Oklahoma (10), Arkansas (10), Vanderbilt (10)

On the List…for Now: None

The Uninvited: Texas (First 4 Out)

Oklahoma picked up a huge win over Texas to end the regular season. It opened the SEC Tournament against Georgia and I believe the Sooners secured an at-large bid when they beat Georgia. The good thing for Oklahoma is that conference record (6-12) is not even a part of the team sheet.
Texas ended the regular season with a brutal home loss to Oklahoma, but bounced back nicely in the SEC Tournament with wins over Vanderbilt and Texas A&M. The Longhorns have seven Q1 wins, but are just 12-14 against Q1-Q3 opponents. They will be sweating it out through Selection Sunday.

OTHER CANDIDATES

Invitations Sent: Memphis (7), St. Mary’s (7), Gonzaga (8), New Mexico (9) Utah State (10)

Invitations printed: None

On the List…for Now: San Diego State (12), Boise State (12)

The Uninvited: UC Irvine (First 4 Out), Dayton (Next 4 Out)

VCU will play in the Atlantic 10 championship game on Sunday and still has a chance for an at-large bid should it lose to George Mason. The Rams are 3-1 against Q1 opponents and 7-5 versus Q1 and Q2 opponents. The one glaring issue on their resume is that they do not own any wins against at-large teams. While I think it’s unlikely they receive an at-large bid, I do believe there is a chance as every bubble team has a significant flaw.
San Diego State already has two very impressive wins on the season against Houston and Creighton both on a neutral court. It also beat New Mexico, UC San Diego and won at Boise State. It has a 4-4 record against Q1 opponents and possess top 40 result-based metrics. The Aztecs NET ranking of No. 49 isn’t particularly strong, which is why they are slotted as only a No. 10 seed at the moment. This is a team that should receive an at-large bid due to the fact that their best wins are over teams which are at or near the top of their respective conferences.
Boise State had an extremely poor showing against Colorado State in the MWC finals and is now up in the air for an at-large bid. The Broncos beat San Diego State in the quarterfinals and No. 1 seed New Mexico in the semis of the Mountain West Tournament. The win over the Lobos elevated the Broncos into my field as that’s now six wins over at-large teams and an 8-8 record versus Q1 and Q2 opponents. They need to hope for no more bid-stealers on Sunday.
Dayton has wins over UConn, Marquette and at VCU. The Flyers lost in the quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament to St. Joe’s and in all likelihood ended any chance of receiving an at-large bid.
UC Irvine has the nation’s best 18 wins away from home. Is that enough to receive an at-large bid? Well, after losing to UC San Diego in the Big West final, the Anteaters are about to find out.