Bracketology 2026: Men’s NCAA Tournament Projections

For example, No. 1-seeded Navy lost to Boston University yesterday in the semifinals of the Patriot League Tournament. The Midshipmen had an awesome season and likely would have been a No. 14 seed in the NCAA Tournament had they won the conference tournament. Instead, the representative out of the Patriot League (either Boston University or Lehigh) will now likely be a No. 16 seed playing in Dayton. March can be rewarding or devastating, but one thing for certain is it’s always stressful. And we wouldn’t want it any other way.

Here are some thoughts regarding today’s bracket:

• A team I did not expect to show up so favorably after yesterday’s brutal day of bubble games is Stanford. The Cardinal entered last week as one of the Next Four Teams out, but picked up a nice win on the road against a struggling NC State squad. Stanford now has the most Quad 1 wins of any team on the bubble; it also is 9-8 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents. The only other bubble teams over .500 against Quad 1 and 2 are Santa Clara and New Mexico. The Cardinal do have three Quad 3 losses, but with a WAB ranking of No. 49, this team is my last team in the field today.
• After picking up an excellent win last week at Iowa State, Texas Tech has now dropped two games in a row, losing to TCU at home and on the road at BYU. Neither is a bad loss, but many other teams in the Red Raiders projected seed vicinity won over the weekend. Particularly one team, Vanderbilt, notched a win on the road at Tennessee. That win boosted the Commodores onto the No. 4 seed line, while dropping Texas Tech to a No. 5 seed.
• Wisconsin played at Purdue on Saturday and came away with its third significant road win of the season. The Badgers also have victories on the road at Michigan and at Illinois. They are sitting pretty as a No. 6 seed at the moment, but I definitely have a little bit of an urge to bump them up to a No. 5 seed due to these incredible wins. We’ll see how this week goes, but the selection committee does have a history of rewarding teams with so many strong wins.
• With the news of Caleb Wilson being declared out for the rest of the season, I bumped North Carolina down to a No. 6 seed. I think the selection committee would have given the Tar Heels the benefit of the doubt if Wilson was planning on returning for the NCAA Tournament, but now I think their predictive metrics will play a big role with their seeding.
• No team has improved its seed more over the last two weeks than UCLA. The Bruins were out of the field pretty recently, but have won four of their last five games, with victories over Illinois and Nebraska. It was important they added wins over at-large teams and they got two really good ones. UCLA is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament and I have them all the way up as a No. 8 seed with the ability to improve if things go well in the Big Ten Tournament.
• TCU is another team that was nowhere near the bubble back in early February. The Horned Frogs reeled off eight of their last nine games with wins over Iowa State and at Texas Tech. Suddenly, that Quad 4 loss to New Orleans doesn’t stand out so much anymore! TCU is currently slotted to play in an 8/9 game, but a loss early in the Big 12 Tournament could knock it down to a double-digit seed.
• Miami (OH) did the unthinkable and finished the regular season undefeated. Should the RedHawks go on to win the MAC Tournament, I could see them moving up to a No. 9 or No. 10 seed. I currently have them as a No. 11 seed, as their predictive metrics are hovering around 90. And remember, Miami (OH) will be in the NCAA Tournament, so if it loses in its conference tournament, that means there will be one fewer at-large bid to hand out.
• NC State and SMU are playing their worst basketball at the absolute worst time. Both of these ACC teams are hanging on to their at-large bids mainly because the rest of the bubble has performed so poorly. I think NC State is in slightly better shape, but I would be really worried if either of these teams (especially SMU) end up losing their first game in the ACC Tournament.

Last 4 Byes

Ohio State, Missouri, NC State, Texas

Last 4 In

Santa Clara, VCU, SMU, Stanford

First 4 Out

Indiana, Auburn, California, Virginia Tech

Next 4 Out

New Mexico, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Cincinnati

Bracketology

16 Howard Bison

16 Boston University Terriers

11 VCU Rams

11 Stanford Cardinal

16 UMBC Retrievers

16 Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

11 Santa Clara Broncos

11 SMU Mustangs

Midwest (Chicago)

Philadelphia

1 Michigan Wolverines

16 Long Island Sharks

8 Georgia Bulldogs

9 Utah State Aggies

Portland

5 Texas Tech Red Raiders

12 South Florida Bulls

4 Alabama Crimson Tide

13 Utah Valley Wolverines

Tampa

6 Louisville Cardinals

11 Texas Longhorns

3 Nebraska Cornhuskers

14 North Dakota State Bison

Philadelphia

7 Clemson Tigers

10 Missouri Tigers

2 UConn Huskies

15 Wright State Raiders

South (Houston)

Tampa

1 Florida Gators

16 Queens Royals

8 Villanova Wildcats

9 UCF Knights

Buffalo

5 Arkansas Razorbacks

12 High Point Panthers

4 Kansas Jayhawks

13 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

Portland

6 BYU Cougars

11 VCU Rams / Stanford Cardinal

3 Gonzaga Bulldogs

14 Troy Trojans

Buffalo

7 Miami Hurricanes

10 Texas A&M Aggies

2 Michigan State Spartans

15 Tennessee State Tigers

West (San Jose)

San Diego

1 Arizona Wildcats

16 Howard Bison / Boston University Terriers

8 UCLA Bruins

9 Saint Louis Billikens

Greenville

5 Tennessee Volunteers

12 Yale Bulldogs

4 Virginia Cavaliers

13 Liberty Flames

Oklahoma City

6 Wisconsin Badgers

11 Santa Clara Broncos / SMU Mustangs

3 Iowa State Cyclones

14 East Tennessee State Buccaneers

St. Louis

7 Saint Mary's Gaels

10 NC State Wolfpack

2 Illinois Fighting Illini

15 Portland State Vikings

East (Washington, DC)

Greenville

1 Duke Blue Devils

16 Bethune-Cookman Wildcats / UMBC Retrievers

8 TCU Horned Frogs

9 Iowa Hawkeyes

San Diego

5 St. John's Red Storm

12 Northern Iowa Panthers

4 Vanderbilt Commodores

13 Hofstra Pride

St. Louis

6 North Carolina Tar Heels

11 Miami Ohio Red Hawks

3 Purdue Boilermakers

14 UC Irvine Anteaters

Oklahoma City

7 Kentucky Wildcats

10 Ohio State Buckeyes

2 Houston Cougars

15 Merrimack Warriors

Bids by Conference

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