Conference play has begun for some leagues, while several power conferences are still a few weeks away. Non-conference totals and sides have been especially profitable for us, and we’re well positioned with a handful of futures as well.
Let’s take a look at some plays for the weekend that we’re putting our money on.
Oakland Team Total Under vs. Michigan State – Saturday
Unders in East Lansing has been the way to go in recent years and we lean that way again for this matchup. We’re going to play Oakland’s team total under here. The Spartans are allowing 62.6 points per game at home, which is one of the lowest among power conferences. It’s not only in their buy games where they are winning in dominant fashion. They hosted Arkansas, Iowa, and Duke, holding all three to a season low in points. Sparty ranks No. 5 in KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency and they’ll sit around that spot all season. Oakland has had some big time scoring showings, but we saw their struggles against Houston (45 points) and Northern Iowa (63 points), which have comparable defenses to Michigan State’s. Look for the Spartans to swarm Oakland in this matchup.
Louisville Team Total Over vs. Montana – Saturday
This is a prime bounce back spot for the Cardinals’ offense. Tennessee held Louisville to just 62 points in Knoxville, which was a season low. They now get to return home for a matchup with Montana, which has struggled with teams that play at a high pace. The Grizzlies rank 268th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. Stanford scored 91, UNLV scored 93, Oakland scored 95, and Montana Tech scored 82 against them. Montana Tech is typically solid in the NAIA ranks, but allowing that team to score 82 in your home gym says a lot about your defense. Mikel Brown Jr. missed Louisville’s last matchup and we haven’t heard much about his status leading up to this weekend. If he isn’t 100 percent, it’d make sense for Pat Kelsey to let him sit again. Regardless, Kelsey should get a lot from his guys on the offensive end.
North Carolina -3.5 (-110) vs. Ohio State (DraftKings) – Saturday
Not enough credit has been given to UNC for holding up without Seth Trimble. And they’ll get him back for this important game. The Tar Heels have been stout on the defensive end and have some growing to do scoring against better teams. Trimble gives them their best defender back and a reliable scorer. Henri Veesaar has been a great addition from the transfer portal and could be the difference in this matchup. UNC has had a number of tests already including a big win over No. 19 Kansas while Darryn Peterson was healthy.
Seth's Picks: Kentucky vs. St. John's, Duke vs. Texas Tech and More
Dec. 19th: Seth Davis makes his picks for Saturday’s top games, including Kentucky vs. St. John’s, Duke vs. Texas Tech, and Purdue vs. Auburn
Pittsburgh to Cover vs. Penn State – Sunday
It has been a solid start to the season for Penn State, but a lot of that has to do with its strength of schedule. The Nittany Lions have also struggled defensively. They’re 0-3 against the Power 5 with losses to Providence by 12, Indiana by 41, and Michigan State by 4. Things haven’t gone well for Pittsburgh, either. The Panthers lost a number of games to schools that were double-digit underdogs. The Jeff Capel era is probably coming to an end, but he needs this win in a big way. We trust Pitt’s offense more in this spot, and the Panthers should find success against a bad Penn State squad.
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