Two tickets to the Final Four have been punched. We’ve got two more to go today.
The 2026 NCAA Tournament has been everything we hoped it would be. It’s a shame to see it winding down, but the games have been so riveting, we might as well enjoy the ones that are left. Here are my picks for today’s regional final doubleheader. Next stop, Indy!
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 2 UConn
Seth’s Analysis
I saw some info tweeted by College Basketball Report that surprised me. It listed the free throw differentials of all the teams remaining in the Elite Eight. Arizona led the way at plus-65. Illinois was second at plus-49, and Duke was right behind at +44. Bringing up the rear was UConn at minus-10. That includes Friday’s 67-63 win over Michigan State, where the Spartans shot 18 free throws (and made 13) to UConn’s 16 (10 makes).
This is a reflection of how the Huskies performed all season. They rank 305th on KenPom in offensive free throw rate and 306th in defensive free throw rate. When you see those numbers, it’s amazing they’ve won as many games as they have.
If that’s an indication of how this game will go, then Duke is going to win anyway. The Blue Devils rank No. 2 on KenPom in defensive free throw rate, and though they’re 101st in offensive free throw rate, they are No. 2 in height, No. 5 in offensive rebound percentage and No. 7 in two-point percentage (60.3). Much like UConn, St. John’s is a strong, physical team, but Duke outscored the Red Storm 40-28 in the paint and attempted 16 more free throws. The Huskies have one of the top post scorers and rebounders in the country in Tarris Reid, and though Dan Hurley has not used freshman reserve Eric Reibe much of late, Reibe is probably going to need to be more of a factor in this game, especially if Reed gets into foul trouble.
This would be a great game for UConn freshman guard Braylon Mullins to pop off. He only had 8 points against the Spartans, but while he has had an up and down season, Mullins does seem to love the big moment. In the end, though, Duke is just better, bigger, and more battle tested. The Blue Devils have played a brutal schedule, squirmed out of many difficult situations, and stared into the abyss twice now in this NCAA Tournament, against Siena in the first round and the Red Storm in the Sweet Sixteen. Junior point guard Caleb Foster’s heroic effort less than three weeks after undergoing foot surgery embodies what this team is all about. This is a glamorous regional final between two ultra bluebloods, but Duke’s advantage at the free throw line will prove decisive.
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 6 Tennessee
Seth’s Analysis
At some point, when you’re playing Michigan, a big part of your strategy is hope. In other words, hope they have a terrible shooting night. In the Wolverines’ three losses this season, they shot a combined 21 for 74 from three (28.3 percent). And they still lost each game by single digits. Alabama had no choice but to deploy that strategy in the Sweet Sixteen Friday night, but the Wolverines, who rank 30th nationally from behind the arc at 36.9 percent, made 13 of 27 from three. Senior forward Yaxel Lendeborg made 4 of his 5 attempts and finished with 23 points, 12 rebounds, 7 assists and 2 steals. The Wolverines blanketed the Crimson Tide on the glass (46-32), beasted them in the paint (34-20) and cruised home to a 90-77 win.
Tennessee also dominated Iowa State on the boards during its 76-62 win Thursday night. The Cyclones aren’t a dominant rebounding team anyway, and they were especially vulnerable playing without 6-foot-9 senior forward Joshua Jefferson. The Vols out-rebounded Iowa State 43-22 and pulled down 16 offensive rebounds on 29 missed field goals. Throw in a stellar offensive night from talented but inconsistent freshman forward Nate Ament (18 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists) and you have the makings of a convincing 76-62 win.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Tennessee will not have quite the same success on the glass and in the paint in this one. Yes, the Vols are the best offensive rebounding team in the nation, per KenPom, but Michigan has far more size up front than Iowa State, or just about anyone else the Vols have played this season. On the other hand, Tennessee has the size and physicality to match up with Michigan across the board in a way that few teams can. Tennessee ranks No. 11 on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency.
So this is shaping up to be strength-on-strength, but Michigan has an offensive gear that Tennessee does not have, and the Wolverines have several long, strong wing defenders they can rotate on Ament. Tennessee will fight and keep things competitive, but Michigan will pull away with late free throws.
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