INDIANAPOLIS — Two teams, one game, one more prediction to go.
Let’s end this thing right.
That goes for Michigan and UConn, and also for me. I started picking games back in early November. I ramped it up for the NCAA Tournament three weeks ago. And now, for the last time in this 2025-26 college basketball season, I get to let you know who the winner will be, and by how much, when the ball is tipped Monday evening in Lucas Oil Stadium.
Once more, with feeling, here is my pick against the spread for the NCAA championship game.
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 1 Michigan
Seth’s Analysis
It’s tempting to say that because Michigan embarrassed a great Arizona team by 18 points even though Yaxel Lendeborg played just 14 minutes because of his ankle and knee injuries that they don’t need Lendeborg to be at full strength, or perhaps even available, to win this game. That may be true, but the situation is certainly suboptimal. Lendeborg isn’t just Michigan’s best player, he’s one of the best players in the country. He is the engine that makes this team go at both ends of the floor — a scorer, a shooter, driver, a lockdown defender, a powerful rebounder, and most of all, a devastating finisher in transition. When a team gets to Monday night, it wants all hands on deck.
All indications are that Lendborg will be available. Whether he’ll be effective remains to be seen. But even if he can give the Wolverines 20 or so good minutes, that will be vital, especially when it comes to defending UConn’s senior center Tarris Reed, a former Wolverine who has averaged 21.0 points, 13.0 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.8 blocks in the NCAA Tournament and went for 17 points and 11 rebounds in Saturday night’s 71-62 win over Illinois.
Lots of teams have size, but Michigan’s size is just … different. You could see it in the way 7-foot-3 junior center Aday Mara’s presence at both rims cut Arizona’s vaunted front line down to size. Mara had 26 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 blocks in the win. When you combine his size and his length with his light feet and soft hands, he is an unstoppable force. Then when you pair him with 6-foot-9 250-pound sophomore forward Morez Johnson Jr., Michigan becomes virtually unbeatable. This is, to say the least, a big problem for UConn.
The Huskies have their own injury issue to deal with. Coach Dan Hurley revealed on Sunday that junior guard Solo Ball sprained his foot during the Illinois win and has the foot in a boot. Hurley said Ball’s status is uncertain for Monday, but I would be shocked if he didn’t at least try to give it a go. Again, being able to play is much different than being at full strength. Ball and Silas Demary Jr. will need to be on point defensively to match up with Michigan’s backcourt of Elliot Cadeau, Nimari Burnett and Trey McKenney. Michigan ranks 25th nationally in three-point shooting at 37.1 percent and shot 14 of 27 against one of the best defensive teams in the country on Saturday. If they’re making shots, they’re unbeatable.
There are two ways in which UConn can pull off this upset. The first, as always, is to shoot lights out from three. The Huskies have guys who can pop off (especially Braylon Mullins and Alex Karaban) but that’s not really what this team does. UConn is ranked 139th nationally in three-point shooting and take just 40.7 percent of their shots from behind the arc, per KenPom. They average 8.3 made threes per game. They may have to make twice that many to win this game, but it’s hard to imagine Hurley altering his team’s personality at this stage. They are who we think they are.
The other thing that UConn can try to do is to make this game tough, grinding and physical. That was Arizona’s strategy, and you can see how well that worked. Perhaps UConn will have more success, but the Huskies don’t quite have the Wildcats’ depth in the frontcourt. They need more than anything to keep Reed out of foul trouble. That’s not impossible, but it ain’t easy, because you know Mara, Johnson and Lendeborg will attack him over and over again.
My final concern with UConn is the one that I’ve had all along: free throw shooting. The Huskies rank below 300 on KenPom in both offensive free throw rate and defensive free throw rate. They have shot significantly fewer free throws than their opponents during the tournament, and shot six fewer against Illinois. The Illini are tall, but they don’t play to their size the way Michigan does. No one does.
Some matchups require much data and astute analysis, but we don’t need to overthink this one. We all saw what we saw Saturday night, and it’s the same thing that we have seen for most of the season. Michigan is big, skilled, fast, determined, smart, and incredibly cohesive. They aren’t just beating good teams, they’re embarrassing them. UConn really needs Michigan to play poorly, but the Wolverines didn’t come this far to play less than their best. The Lendeborg injury is a concern, but not enough to go against the obvious choice.
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