Seth Davis’ Never-Too-Early Preseason Top 25

For the time being, my goal is to take out the guesswork and establish some protocols. I am not looking to anticipate what might happen or probably will happen. My aim is to assess what we know for sure. Here are my rules of thumb:

• Besides seniors who have exhausted their eligibility, I am including among the departed players those who are projected by Hoops HQ NBA Draft expert Jonathan Wasserman to be a first- or second-round pick. 
• If a player has eligibility left and has not declared his intentions to transfer or enter the draft, he is listed among the program’s returnees.
• I did not try to project what certain programs will do based on their coach or NIL/revenue budget. Those teams will rise in the rankings as they add players from the portal.
• Moving forward, players who declare themselves eligible for the draft but are not projected by Wasserman to be selected will be listed as returnees unless they have announced their intentions to stay in the draft. As we get closer to draft day, I will allow for my intel to move certain players to the departures list.
• For recruiting rankings, I am using the 247Sports Composite, both for where the school’s class ranks as a group as well as the rankings for the individual players. Those ranks are in parentheses below.

Here, then, is the (correct) order of the Top 25 teams in men’s college basketball heading into next season. As things change, things will change.

1. MICHIGAN STATE

Losing: Jaxon Kohler, Trey Fort, Carson Cooper, Denham Wojcik

Retaining: Jeremy Fears, Kur Teng, Coen Carr, Cam Ward, Jordan Scott, Divine Ugochukwu, Jesse McCulloch, Kaleb Glenn

Incoming (3): Ethan Taylor (28), Jasiah Jervis (33), Carlos Medlock Jr. (46), Julius Avent (86)

Fears could start the season as the Preseason National Player of the Year, and a little more offensive improvement from Carr could make a huge difference. Tom Izzo usually brings in freshmen who stay and develop, so this is an unusually strong class for him. Glenn transferred last year from FAU but suffered a season-ending knee injury during summer workouts.

2. ILLINOIS

Losing: Keaton Wagler, Kylan Boswell, Ben Humrichous

Retaining: David Mirkovic, Andrej Stojakovic, Tomislav Ivisic, Zvonimir Ivisic, Jake Davis, Mihailo Petrovic, Brandon Lee

Incoming (14): Quentin Coleman (34), Lucas Morillo (59), Ethan Brown (164), Landon Davis (243), Tony Bilic (Croatia)

It’s likely that some of the juniors (especially Stojakovic) will test the NBA Draft waters, but that aside, the Illini will be loaded again. Bilic, who played sparingly during three seasons as a professional in his native Croatia, arrived on campus midseason but did not play in any games. Brad Underwood has emphasized international recruiting and is zeroing in on one or more top prospects from China.

3. DUKE

Losing: Cameron Boozer, Patrick Ngongba, Isaiah Evans, Maliq Brown

Retaining: Cayden Boozer, Caleb Foster, Dame Sarr, Nikolas Khamenia, Darren Harris

Incoming (1): Cameron Williams (3), Bryson Howard (15), Maxime Meyer (84), Deron Rippey, Jr. (10)

Lather. Rinse. Repeat. An elite freshman named Cameron heads the nation’s top recruiting class, but the key for Jon Scheyer will be to prevent his projected returnees from leaving for the portal or the draft. Cayden Boozer might have the toughest draft decision to make, but that would be a very solid five-man core if they all come back.

4. MICHIGAN

Losing: Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara, Morez Johnson, Roddy Gayle, Nimari Burnett, Will Tschetter

Retaining: Elliot Cadeau, L.J. Cason, Trey McKenney

Incoming (2): Brandon McCoy (14), Quinn Costello (44), Joseph Hartman (95), Malachi Brown (169), Marcus Moller (Spain), Lincoln Cosby (45)

You might say Michigan had a pretty good night Saturday. Not only did the Wolverines eviscerate Arizona in the Final Four, but during halftime of that game McCoy announced his commitment. Dusty May has said he wants to have more continuity moving forward, so this team will be younger next season. McKenney could test the draft process, but Mara and Johnson are projected first-round picks. 

5. GONZAGA

Losing: Graham Ike, Tyon Grant-Foster, Jalen Warley, Adam Miller, Steele Venters, Emmanuel Innocenti

Retaining: Braden Huff, Davis Fogle, Mario Saint-Supery, Braeden Smith

Incoming (21): Luca Foster (39), Sam Funches (89), Jack Kayil (Germany), Parker Jefferson

Huff’s ability to recover from the knee injury he suffered in January is the key to Gonzaga’s success in the newly reconstituted Pac-12. Fogle and Saint-Supery had up-and-down freshman campaigns but should be headed for breakout seasons as sophomores. Innocenti announced his intention to transfer on Sunday, robbing Gonzaga of a valuable Glue Guy. Jefferson is a 6-foot-10 forward from Texas who redshirted last season as a true freshman for development purposes.

6. ARKANSAS

Losing: Darius Acuff, Meleek Thomas, Trevon Brazile, Nick Pringle

Retaining: Malique Ewin, Billy Richmond, Karter Knox, D.J. Wagner, Isaiah Sealy

Incoming (7): Jordan Smith (2), J.J. Andrews (12), Abdou Toure (26)

Most programs would have a hard time replacing a one-and-done talent like Acuff, but John Calipari has signed one of his signature classes. Smith and Andrews are both McDonald’s All-Americans. There have been some rumblings that Knox might enter the portal, but he hasn’t said so yet. 

7. UCONN

Losing: Braylon Mullins, Tarris Reed, Alex Karaban, Malachi Smith

Retaining: Solo Ball, Silas Demary, Eric Reibe, Jayden Ross, Jaylin Stewart, Jacob Furphy, Jacob Ross

Incoming (30): Colben Landrew (22), Junior County (36)

Mullins is a projected first-round pick and could sneak into the lottery, so he is unlikely to return to Storrs. Reibe could be poised for a breakout sophomore season after playing understudy to Reed as a freshman. Dan Hurley is adding a couple of good freshmen who should help keep the Huskies in the chase for yet another Final Four.

8. ALABAMA

Losing: Labaron Philon, Amari Allen, Latrell Wrightsell, Houston Mallette, Noah Williamson, Taylor Bol Bowen 

Retaining: Aden Holloway, Aiden Sherrell, Jalil Bethea, London Jemison, Davion Hannah, Keitenn Bristow, Collins Onyejiaka

Incoming (10): Qayden Samuels (18), Jaxon Richardson (21), Tarris Bouie (40)

Wasserman projects Allen as the No. 22 overall pick, but if he doesn’t play his way into the lottery, then Nate Oats will do everything he can to bring Allen back to Tuscaloosa. The other big question is Holloway, whose season ended early after he was arrested on drug charges but recently announced his intentions to return. Onyejiaka missed all but two games last season due to an irregular heartbeat. 

9. ARIZONA

Losing: Brayden Burries, Koa Peat, Montiejus Krivas, Jaden Bradley, Tobe Awaka, Anthony Dell’Orso

Retaining: Ivan Kharchenkov, Dwayne Aristode, Sid Gueye, Bryce James

Incoming: (29): Caleb Holt (4), Cameron Holmes (29), 

Wasserman projects Krivas as the No. 29 overall pick, so he’s a close call. Aristode has star written all over him. Holt is a stud but it doesn’t look like Tommy Lloyd will be bringing in nearly the same number of freshmen as he did last season. His success in the portal and in international recruiting will be vital.

10. IOWA STATE

Losing: Joshua Jefferson, Dominick Nelson, Tamin Lipsey, Nate Heise, Eric Mulder, Cade Kelderman

Retaining: Milan Momcilovic, Killyan Toure, Blake Buchanan, Jamarion Batemon, Dominykas Pleta, Mason Williams, Xzavion Mitchell

Incoming (19): Dorian Rinaldo-Komian (103), Jackson Kiss (106), Christian Wiggins (120), Yusef Gray Jr. (188)

The Cyclones will probably take a step back with the departures of Lipsey and Jefferson, but Momcilovic and Toure give them a solid foundation. Williams transferred last year following two years at Eastern Washington, but he had surgery over the summer and never suited up. Mitchell only played seven games last season due to injury.

11. KANSAS

Losing: Darryn Peterson, Melvin Council, Tre White, Flory Bidunga

Retaining: Bryson Tiller, Elmarko Jackson, Kohl Rosario, Paul Mbiya, Samis Calderon

Incoming (5): Taylor Kinney (13), Davion Adkins (70), Trent Perry (94), Luke Barnett (140)

Bidunga has said he will enter the draft as well as the transfer portal, so there’s a non-zero chance he comes back to Lawrence (for a hefty price). Kansas’ rank will rise considerably if the Jayhawks land No. 1 overall recruit Tyran Stokes as many expect. 

12. ST. JOHN’S

Losing: Zuby Ejiofor, Bryce Hopkins, Oziyah Sellers, Dillon Mitchell, Sadiku Ibine Ayo

Retaining: Ian Jackson, Joson Sanon, Dylan Darling, Ruben Prey, Lefteris Liotopoulos, Kelvin Odih, Casper Pohto, Imran Wojijanovic

Incoming: None

With Mike Repole’s checkbook in hand, Rick Pitino will no doubt add to this roster via the portal, but in the meantime he has a good group coming back. Perhaps another offseason of work will make Jackson the next-level point guard Pitino wanted him to be last season, but Darling and Prey seem poised to make significant improvements. Pohto is a native of Sweden who played five games before being sidelined by a hip injury. Ayo is entering the portal but could still return.

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13. BYU

Losing: A.J. Dybantsa, Richie Saunders, Keba Keita, Mihailo Boskovic

Retaining: Robert Wright, Aleksej Kostic, Kenard Davis, Dominique Diomande, Khadim Mboup, Tyler Mrus, Abullah Ahmed, Brooks Bahr

Incoming (15): Bruce Branch (6), Dean Rusckert (77), Abdullah Ahmed (NBA G League), Will Openshaw (NA), K.J. Perry (juco No. 2)

Branch is not quite as good as Dybantsa, but he is a one-and-done talent who will make an instant impact. Wright will probably enter the NBA Draft but his height will be a major concern for scouts, which is why Wasserman projects him as undrafted. Bahr is a 6-foot-4 guard who was ranked 132^nd in his high school class and will be returning from a two-year mission. Ahmed joined the team in December but did not play in any games.

14. TENNESSEE

Losing: Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Nate Ament, Felix Okpara, Cade Phillips

Retaining: Jaylen Carey, J.P. Estrella, DeWayne Brown, Bishop Boswell, Amari Evans, Ethan Burg, Troy Henderson

Incoming (26): Ralph Scott (54), Manny Green (100), Marquis Clark (212), Tyler Lundblade (Belmont)

Rick Barnes has a lot of replacing to do, and there’s no Nate Ament coming this time. Phillips is entering the transfer portal, but Lundblade is one of the nation’s top three-point shooters.

15. VIRGINIA

Losing: Malik Thomas, Jacari White, Dallin Hall, Ugonna Onyenso, Devin Tillis

Retaining: Thijs De Ridder, Chance Mallory, Sam Lewis, Johann Grunloh, Elijah Gertrude, Martin Carrere, Silas Barksdale

Incoming: None

As of now, Ryan Odom does not have any high school recruits, but for the moment the Cavs are projected to return four of their top six scorers. De Ridder does not appear on Wasserman’s draft board but he is a tantalizing prospect. Barksdale redshirted last season for development purposes.

16. NORTH CAROLINA

Losing: Caleb Wilson, Henry Veesaar, Seth Trimble

Retaining: Luka Bogavac, Zayden High, Derek Dixon, Kyan Evans, Jarin Stevenson, Jonathan powell, Jaydon Young, James Brown, Isaiah Denis

Incoming (28): Dylan Mingo (8), Maximo Adams (25) 

North Carolina doesn’t have a head coach yet, but whoever takes the job will have a full cupboard of talented players. Wilson is a high lottery pick but Veesaar is close enough to the second round that he could be persuaded to come back, for the right price. The two prized freshmen have thus far indicated they are prepared to stick with North Carolina pending the new coaching hire.

17. WISCONSIN

Losing: Nick Boyd, Braeden Carrington, Andrew Rohde

Retaining: John Blackwell, Nolan Winter, Ausitn Rapp, Aleksas Bieliauskas, Jayden Jones, Jack Janicki, Will Garlock, Zach Kinzinger

Incoming (104): Owen Foxwell (Australia), LaTrevion Fenderson (208), Jackson Ball (NA)

Boyd is a big loss, but Blackwell will be one of the top bucket getters in the country. The Badgers got a commitment last week from Foxwell, who played in the NBL and will be 23 next season.

18. OHIO STATE

Losing: Bruce Thonrton, Devin Royal, Christoph Tilly, Brandon Noel, Puff Johnson, Colin White, Gabe Cupps

Retaining: John Mobley, Amare Bynum, Taison Chatman, Ivan Njegovan, Josh Ojianwuna

Incoming (33): Anthony Thompson (7), Alex Smith (122)

It won’t be easy bidding Thornton farewell, but the Buckeyes have a chance to build on their late-season momentum and climb into the top tier of the Big Ten. Royal and White are entering the portal, but Bynum has said he is coming back and has a chance to be one of the top forwards in the Big Ten. Mobley has said he is entering the NBA Draft but Wasserman projects him as undrafted. Cupps is headed for the portal. Thompson could be a program changer, but the biggest X factor — literally — is Ojianuwuna, a 6-foot-10, 270-pound center who sat out last season rehabbing an ACL injury he sustained while at Baylor.

19. HOUSTON

Losing: Kingston Flemings, Milos Uzan, Chris Cenac Jr., Joseph Tugler, Emanuel Sharp, Isiah Harwell, Ramon Walker, Kalifa Sakho

Retaining: Mercy Miller, Chase McCarty, Cedric Lath, Bryce Jackson, Kordel Jefferson

Incoming (29): Arafan Diane (16), Ikenna Alozie (55)

Tugler is projected as the 57^th pick by Wasserman, so there’s a very good chance he will move to the retaining list. Harwell’s decision to transfer was a disappointment, but I’m banking on Kelvin Sampson’s history of player development. He also has another stud coming into the program in Diane.

20. PURDUE

Losing: Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn, Fletcher Loyer, Oscar Cluff

Retaining: Omer Mayer, Daniel Jacobsen, C.J. Cox, Gicarri Harris, Jack Benter, Antoine West Jr., Raleigh Burgess 

Incoming (7): Luke Ertel (41), Jacob Webber (64), Sinan Huan (83), Jemyn Sondrup (134), Rivers Knight (211), Caden Pierce (Princeton) 

Matt Painter has relied on his veteran trio of Smith, Loyer and Kaufman-Renn for four years, and they will not be easily replaced. Smith’s departure should give Mayer the chance to have the ball in his hands more and fulfill the potential he showed in international play last summer. West redshirted for development purposes and earned rave reviews for his work on the scout teams. Burgess is a 6-foot-11 sophomore forward who redshirted following surgery after his freshman season.

21. NEBRASKA

Losing: Rienk Mast, Jamarques Lawrence, Sam Hoiberg, Jared Garcia

Retaining: Connor Essegian, Pryce Sandfort, Braden Frager, Berke Buyuktuncel, Cale Jacobsen, Leo Curtis, Ugnius Jarusevicius

Incoming (34): Collin Rice (81), Jacob Lanier (96)

It will be hard for Fred Hoiberg to duplicate last season’s magic, but the Huskers have some nice pieces coming back. Essegian is a sharp shooter who is returning from a season-ending ankle injury he sustained in November. 

22. IOWA

Losing: Bennett Stirtz, Tavion Banks, Brendan Hausen

Retaining: Alvaro Folgueiras, Cam Manyawu, Isaia Howard, Tate Sage, Cooper Koch, Kael Combs, Trevin Jirak, Joey Matteoni

Incoming (44): Ethan Harris (112), Jaidyn Coon (159)

Losing Stirtz is obviously tough, but Ben McCollum does not strike me as a one-hit wonder. Folgueiras was one of the breakout stars of the NCAA Tournament, and Sage has a Stirz-like ability to score from deep. 

23. VCU

Losing: Jadrian Tracey, Barry Evans

Retaining: Lazar Djokovic, Tyrell Ward, Brandon Jennings, Nyk Lewis, Michael Belle, Shmad Nowell, Keyshawn Mitchell

Incoming (37): Sammy Jackson (57), Collin Ross (136)

The Rams’ dramatic comeback win over North Carolina was no fluke, and now they are set to return their core nucleus. Phil Martelli Jr. signed a couple of good high school players, and if he can properly augment this roster with veterans via the transfer portal, then the Rams have a real chance to be ranked heading into the season.

24. FLORIDA

Losing: Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu, Xaivian Lee, Micah Handlogten, Olivier Rioux

Retaining: Boogie Fland, Urban Klavzar, Isaiah Brown, C.J. Ingram, Alex Lloyd

Incoming (144): Jones Lay (NA)

Last year, Todd Golden needed the portal to replace his guards. This year, it’s all about the bigs. He is going to do everything he can to convince at least one of his draft-worthy undergraduates to give it another go in Gainesville. Fland has announced he wants to return and will anchor a solid perimeter corps.

25. VANDERBILT

Losing: Duke Miles, Frankie Collins, Tyler Nickel, A.K. Okereke, Devin McGlockton, Jalen Washington

Retaining: Tyler Tanner, Tyler Harris, Chandler Bing, Mike James, Jayden Leverett, George Kimble III

Incoming (17): Ethan Mgbako (67), Anthony Brown (74), Jackson Sheffield (138)

The big key here is Tanner, who is not on Wasserman’s draft board but does appear on other mock drafts, so I expect him to test the waters. Kimble is a transfer from Eastern Kentucky who sat out last season while rehabbing a knee injury. The other big question is whether coach Mark Byington leaves for North Carolina, as many (including me) have predicted.

NOTABLE OMISSIONS

Texas: Sean Miller has a good recruiting class coming in, but he needs to convince Dailyn Swain to turn down the chance to be a first-round draft pick and come back to Austin.

USC: The Trojans should have Rodney Rice coming off a knee injury plus a recruiting class headlined by five-star forward Christian Collins.

Texas Tech: JT Toppin and Christian Anderson are almost certainly draft-bound, but Grant McCasland has a couple of good bench players who were hobbled by injuries last season after transferring.

UCLA: The Bruins could move into the Top 25 if Skyy Clark wins his appeal to the NCAA to gain an additional year of eligibility.

Louisville: Pat Kelsey has a lot of work to do to replace Mikel Brown Jr. and a host of other departures, but he has the resources to rebuild his roster via the portal.

Kentucky: Mark Pope has a lot of players to replace, including several who have said they are entering the portal, but he has oddly failed to land a top-flight recruiting class.

Villanova: The Wildcats were going to be in my Top 25, but Acaden Lewis’ announcement on Sunday that he is transferring dropped them out.

Missouri: Dennis Gates has lots of players to replace, but he also has arguably the best recruiting class in school history.