A year ago, the college basketball world was convinced that Yaxel Lendeborg was headed to the NBA. The do-it-all forward was projected as a first-round pick in the 2025 Draft following a sensational season at UAB.
Of course, Lendeborg wound up withdrawing right before the deadline and finalizing a seven-figure deal with Michigan. That decision resulted in the Wolverines winning a national championship and Lendeborg’s draft stock rising significantly.
In the pre-NIL era, Lendeborg would have turned pro already. Today, the financial incentives are higher for many elite prospects to return to school. Late first-round picks in 2026 can sign four-year guaranteed NBA contracts valued at between $2.4 million and $2.7 million for the first year. The rookie scale does not apply to players selected in the second round, so contracts are far less favorable for guys who fall past No. 30.
Below are 10 prospects presumably grappling with whether to stay in college or make the leap to the NBA. Several have declared for the draft while maintaining their NCAA eligibility. It’s worth noting that the 2027 draft class is believed to be considerably weaker than this year’s crop, which is another factor players are weighing.
The NBA Draft Combine is scheduled for May 10-17 in Chicago. The NCAA’s early-withdrawal deadline for the Draft is May 27 at 11:59 p.m. ET.
1. Braylon Mullins, 6-foot-6 freshman guard, UConn
The highly touted freshman delivered some incredible moments in the NCAA Tournament, including the 35-foot game-winner against Duke in the Elite Eight. He scored in double figures in five of the Huskies’ six March Madness games, but his shot was inconsistent throughout the postseason. From the Big East Tournament through the Final Four, he connected on just 26.2 percent of his threes.
Still, Mullins’ talent and potential will entice NBA front offices. As Hoops HQ’s draft expert Jonathan Wasserman wrote, “there will be eye-testers who believe he’s one of the most skilled and versatile shotmakers in the draft.” Mullins was a five-star prospect and McDonald’s All-American out of Greenfield-Central High School.
HHQ Prediction: Stays. As Dan Hurley said on the Dan Patrick Show, Mullins would probably make more money at UConn than in the NBA next season if he doesn’t land in the lottery. (Most mocks have him projected in the 15-30 range.) Multiple NBA scouts suggested that Mullins would benefit from another year with the Huskies. “Getting stronger is probably the biggest thing,” one scout said. “Get some on-ball reps. He’s young. I don’t see what the rush is to go be the 25th pick and risk getting in a bad situation where you don’t really play.”
2. Aday Mara, 7-foot-3 junior center, Michigan
Mara shot up draft boards during Michigan’s run to the national title, averaging 14.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 2.3 blocks in the tournament. His unique blend of size and skill makes him one of the most intriguing prospects coming out of college.
He won’t fit on every NBA roster, but teams that like to play through their bigs and covet more rim protection will value Mara above most other players in his class. If he develops as a shooter, the Spaniard could blossom into a star at the next level.
HHQ Prediction: Goes. With all the buzz surrounding his name right now, it is hard to imagine Mara returning to Michigan. He has put himself in position to be a lottery pick and there is no reason to risk that changing. “I think at worst he goes in the mid-teens,” one NBA scout said. “And I think there’s a world where he ends up going even higher than that.”
3. Morez Johnson Jr., 6-foot-9 sophomore forward, Michigan
Alongside two projected lottery picks in Lendeborg and Mara, Johnson flew under the radar for much of the season. The versatile two-way forward averaged 13.1 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game. As one scout told Hoops HQ, Johnson has the tools to contribute to an NBA team right away. “He can defend anybody on the floor,” the scout said. “He can rebound. He doesn’t need the ball to score. You don’t have to run plays for him. You can lob to him. I think he finds his way on the floor even on a pretty decent team, just because he’s ready to give you something right now, and that’s defending and rebounding.”
HHQ Prediction: Stays. This one is especially tough to project considering Johnson can have an immediate impact at the NBA level. Yet, in a loaded draft class, he also may fall dangerously close to going in the second round. Assuming Mara leaves, there should be more money and opportunities for Johnson at Michigan next season. If the big man has a similar or slightly better junior year, he should be a lottery pick in 2027.
4. Patrick Ngongba II, 6-foot-11 sophomore center, Duke
Ngongba battled a stress fracture in his right foot throughout March, but he was very productive in the regular season, averaging 10.7 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.1 blocks. His injury history — he’s dealt with foot issues since high school — will likely deter some NBA teams. Others will be drawn to his impressive passing, finishing, shooting potential and rim protection.
HHQ Prediction: Stays. Ngongba is trending toward being a mid to late first round pick. That could move in either direction over the next two months based on his medicals and what the final draft class looks like. Nonetheless, it will be difficult for Ngongba to turn down a major contract to remain with the Blue Devils, especially since he could play his way into the top 10 conversation for the 2027 Draft. “I think there’s still some runway in terms of him being able to show more with the shooting and staying healthy,” said one NBA scout. “There’s room for him to get in better shape, which will help him.”
5. Motiejus Krivas, 7-foot-2 junior center, Arizona
An imposing center from Lithuania, Krivas was the defensive anchor for an Arizona team that went 36-3 and made it all the way to the Final Four. He averaged 10.4 points, 8.2 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game, earning All-Big 12 First Team honors. While he isn’t as skilled as big men like Mara or Ngongba, Krivas has the size, strength and toughness to be a solid rotational piece in the NBA.
HHQ Prediction: Goes. Given how well things went at Arizona this season, Krivas’ stock is as high as it’s ever been. Could it rise even higher if he returns to Tucson? Possibly, but it’s also possible that it declines should the Wildcats struggle.
6. Milan Momcilovic, 6-foot-8 junior forward, Iowa State (Entering transfer portal)
The best shooter in college basketball this season, Momcilovic declared for the draft and simultaneously entered the transfer portal last week. The dynamic forward averaged 16.9 points and 3.1 rebounds while shooting a scorching 48.7 percent from deep (first in Division I). He ranked fifth in the country in three-pointers made (136), knocking down at least five in 11 different outings. As a three-year starter for TJ Otzelberger, Momcilovic has improved each season of his career.
HHQ Prediction: Stays. Momcilovic is arguably the top name in the portal, so he’s in line to land one of the biggest contracts in the NCAA if he withdraws from the draft. That seems like the logical choice considering he’s projected as a second-round pick. Even if his three-point percentage comes back down to Earth in 2026-27, no one will be questioning his shooting ability a year from now.
7. Ebuka Okorie, 6-foot-2 freshman guard, Stanford
Only two freshmen averaged more points per game (23.2) than Okorie this season, both of whom are projected to be top-five picks (BYU’s AJ Dybantsa and Arkansas’ Darius Acuff Jr.). As Stanford’s clear go-to option, Okorie was often unstoppable offensively despite being at the top of every opposing scouting report. His eight games with at least 30 points broke the ACC’s rookie record previously held by Duke’s Marvin Bagley III.
Stanford was Okorie’s only high-major offer coming out of Brewster Academy in New Hampshire. The 19-year-old is “two feet in the draft,” per a report from ESPN’s Jonathan Givony, but if he chooses to return it’ll be to Kyle Smith and the Cardinal.
HHQ Prediction: Goes. Okorie isn’t guaranteed to be a first-round pick, but there’s not much more he could do in college to dramatically boost his stock. “I don’t know how a guy like him benefits by coming back,” said one NBA scout.
NBA Mock Draft: Is Darryn Peterson Still No. 1?
Kansas’ enigmatic freshman has looked great at times, but he will have some significant questions to answer as we approach the NBA Draft
8. Tounde Yessoufou, 6-foot-5 freshman guard, Baylor
The 19-year-old Yessoufou appears to be all-in on the draft. He declared on Friday and did not suggest that he was contemplating a return to Waco. That said, Alabama guard Labaron Philon Jr. seemed like a lock to turn pro last summer before making the surprising last-second decision to withdraw. The same could happen with Yessoufou.
An explosive wing originally from the West African country of Benin, Yessoufou broke Baylor’s single-season freshman scoring record. He started all 34 games, averaging 17.8 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.0 steals. His shooting remains a concern among scouts (29.3 percent from three on 5.3 attempts per contest), and he needs to develop as a passer.
HHQ Prediction: Goes. Yessoufou might be wise to spend another year developing at the college level, but he seems committed to following in the footsteps of recent one-and-done prospects at Baylor such as VJ Edgecombe, Ja’Kobe Walter, Keyonte George and Davion Mitchell. Yessoufou, who’s projected to be a late-first or early-second round pick, could benefit from other guards in his range dropping out of the draft in May.
9. Tyler Tanner, 6-foot sophomore guard, Vanderbilt
After leading the Commodores to a 27-9 season with averages of 19.5 points, 5.1 assists, 3.6 rebounds and 2.4 steals, Tanner emerged as a potential late first rounder. He was one of only four high-major players to post at least 19 points and five assists per game, earning All-SEC First Team honors. The lighting quick floor general has grabbed the attention of NBA teams because of his shotmaking, facilitating and feisty defense.
HHQ Prediction: Stays. There are a wide range of possibilities should Tanner enter the draft, including falling into the second round. If he chooses to come back, he will 100 percent command a massive NIL deal and be in the conversation for preseason All-American.
10. Meleek Thomas, 6-foot-5 freshman guard, Arkansas
A former five-star prospect out of Overtime Elite, Thomas had an exceptional freshman campaign at Arkansas, averaging 15.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.5 steals while shooting 41.6 percent from behind the arc. He and All-American point guard Darius Acuff Jr. formed one of the nation’s most electrifying backcourt duos. With the two of them running the show, the Razorbacks ranked seventh in Division I in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Thomas declared for the draft on Monday while maintaining his NCAA eligibility.
HHQ Prediction: Stays. There’s no question about Thomas’ scoring ability, but he still has room to grow as a playmaker and facilitator. Arkansas is bringing in another elite point guard to replace Acuff (five-star freshman Jordan Smith Jr.), but should Thomas return, he’ll have the ball in his hands a lot more next season. With an expanded role, it’s easy to see Thomas climbing from a fringe first-round pick closer to the lottery range.
Meet your guide
