INDIANAPOLIS — We only have three games left in the 2025-26 college basketball season, and we couldn’t ask for a better heavyweight pairing for the Final Four. This city is overrun by fans of the four teams, which will make for a colorful assemblage Saturday night in Lucas Oil Stadium as the Final Four gets pared down to the Final Two.
I’ve had a blast picking these games against the spread all season. I’ve gotten quite a few right, and probably a few more wrong, but that’s what makes sports so fun (unless you’re wagering more than you should). This is the next-to-last picks against the spread column I’ll be writing for Hoops HQ. So let’s make it a doozy!
Here are my picks against the spread for the national semifinals.
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 UConn
Seth’s Analysis
When it comes to NCAA Tournament prognosticating, my performance in 2014 belongs in the annals of history. I picked against UConn straight up six — count ’em, six — times, which is obviously a record since teams can only play six games in this thing. I was almost right in the first round, but the Huskies escaped Saint Joseph’s in overtime. Then they won five more and claimed the championship. Shabazz Napier was my daddy.
I don’t know if it’s possible to top that, but I’m trying! I’ve now picked against the Huskies for four straight rounds, and while I was correct that Furman would cover its 20.5 point spread, I am happy to acknowledge the Huskies have exceeded my expectations at every turn. I had reasons to doubt they could get this far — the close shaves against Georgetown, the home loss to Creighton, the pratfall at Marquette, the 20-point drubbing by St. John’s in the Big East tourney final — but they have shown great talent and resilience, most notably in overcoming that 19-point deficit to beat Duke in the Elite Eight.
There’s no turning back now. Clearly, this is a very good UConn basketball team, probably better than I thought . But Illinois is really good, too, and the Illini are getting better with every game. Or should I say, getting tougher with every game, which frankly has been my concern with this team all season. Four of the Illini’s last five losses came in overtime, so they’ve been knocking at the door of greatness for a while. They’ve always been an elite offensive team (currently No. 1 on KenPom in adjusted efficiency), but in knocking off Houston and Iowa last week, the Illini showed they can slug it out with slower, physical teams as well.
I also noted on Sunday that UConn was the only Elite Eight team that had a negative free throw differential in the tournament. Illinois places a special emphasis on this area. The Illini rank 20th on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency, but they are No. 1 in defensive free throw rate (and dead last nationally in defensive turnover percentage). If this game is close and tense, which I expect it will be, that will prove to be the difference.
No. 1 Michigan (-1.5) vs. No. 1 Arizona, 8:49 p.m., TBS
Seth’s Analysis
The commentary about these two juggernauts this season has revolved around their prodigious size. And not just how big they are, but how properly they use that asset. The Wolverines rank No. 28 on KenPom in height, they’re No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency and effective field goal defense, No. 3 in two-point defense (44.3 percent) and No. 3 in block percentage. Arizona is No. 7 in height, No. 2 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and No. 2 in both effective field goal defense and two-point defense (44.1). Arizona is also fifth in offensive rebound percentage while Michigan is 46th in defensive rebound percentage, so the Wildcats might have a bit of an edge on the boards. On the other hand, Arizona only makes 5.9 threes per game but Michigan makes 9.3. In a close game, those extra few points could be a big deal.
This game is as evenly matched as they come. But I see three areas where Michigan has an edge. The first, as I noted, is three-point shooting. The second is experience. The Wolverines rank 46th on KenPom in experience, while the Wildcats are 146th. Arizona starts three freshmen and brings a fourth off the bench as the eighth man. Michigan starts two seniors, two juniors and a sophomore, and has one freshman, 6-foot-4 guard Trey McKenney, in its rotation. Yes, Arizona won a lot of games this season with a young lineup, but so did Duke. It doesn’t matter until it matters.
There’s one more area where I give the Wolverines the upper hand: They have Yaxel Lendeborg, and Arizona doesn’t. The Wildcats have considerable talent, of course, but they beat teams collectively. Michigan does, too, but Lendeborg is just different. He’s a productive, versatile superstar who guards as intensely as he attacks the basket. Lendeborg is an outstanding finisher, too, which is just one reason why Michigan’s transition game has become so lethal. In a game of this magnitude, where the teams are so evenly matched, the tie tends to go to the team with the best player in the game. That player is Lendeborg.
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