Bracketology 2025: Men's NCAA Tournament Projections

Selection Sunday has finally arrived and while the bubble continues to be difficult to figure out, the rest of the field is finally getting clearer. Typically, the final day or two of conference tournaments don’t have a significant impact on the bracket unless there is a bid-stealer. That’s still a possibility as Memphis would become an at-large bid should it lose to UAB in the AAC finals. At this stage in the process, the Selection Committee has its at-large teams figured out, but will have contingency plans in case of a bid-stealer or two on the final day.

I believe the top two seed lines are all set with Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida as No. 1 seeds and Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State and St. John’s as No. 2 seeds. After Wisconsin beat Michigan State on Saturday, I believe the Badgers locked up a No. 3 seed, while Arizona should land as a No. 4 seed after it lost to Houston in the Big 12 championship game.

The most difficult teams for me to seed in this whole process have been Gonzaga and Memphis. Gonzaga has top 10 predictive metrics with relatively weak resume metrics, while Memphis has strong resume metrics with weak predictive metrics. It’s a balancing act when trying to determine where to seed teams, but these two teams have such extreme differences regarding their resume metrics and predictive metrics that it makes it a challenge to figure out what the Selection Committee will do.

Here are a few thoughts regarding today’s bracket:

North Carolina dropped to 1-12 against Q1 opponents after losing to Duke for a third time. The one significant positive the Tar Heels have going for them are their top 40 resume metrics. The Selection Committee always says they view the total body of work. If that’s the case then I have a hard time seeing them put UNC in. Metrics are important though and that’s why the Tar Heels still have a chance.
Texas dropped out of my field after Boise State defeated New Mexico. The Longhorns have seven Q1 wins and still in play for a bid, but their poor non conference strength-of-schedule, as well as being the only bubble team to be under .500 against Q1-Q3 are reasons why they are on the outside looking in.
Boise State entered the field as a No. 12 seed after adding a crucial victory over New Mexico in the Mountain West Tournament. The Broncos lost to Colorado State in the MWC finals and now must hope we don’t see any more bid-stealers.
Memphis had another matchup come down to the wire. This time it was against Tulane. The Tigers survived and every bubble team breathed a sigh of relief. Memphis is currently a No. 7 seed with the ability to improve should it win its tournament.
Wisconsin defeated Michigan State in the semis of the Big Ten Tournament. It will play Michigan in the finals. I believe the Badgers should be locked in for a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
UC San Diego beat UC Irvine to win the Big West title. The Tritons are projected to be a No. 11 seed and will be an extremely difficult out in the NCAA Tournament. UC Irvine remains in the mix for an at-large bid thanks to having 18 wins away from home.