It’s so great to be back for another year of bracketology and while many teams have new faces, I am most excited about the plethora of high-level talent that we get to watch on a nightly basis. We’ve had a ton of amazing matchups in non-conference play so far which has been enough to get me absolutely hyped for the NCAA Tournament already. It’s important to remember that every game matters in terms of inclusion and seeding. Each year the NCAA Selection Committee relies more and more on specific result-based and predictive metrics, so it’s vital to continue to monitor these numbers as they play a crucial role in determining who is in, who is out and where a team is seeded.
Things are never as simple as they appear when it comes to a team’s resume. Last year, North Carolina received an at-large bid while going just 1-12 against Q1 opponents. To me, it was pretty stunning that the Selection Committee would put them in, but it doesn’t matter what I think. The whole point of bracketology and projections is to figure out why the committee does certain things. When it came to UNC, the Tar Heels had the No. 5 non-conference strength of schedule and possessed a WAB (wins above bubble) and SOR (strength-of-record) in the top 45. So, clearly, these result-based metrics played a pivotal role and something we have to monitor even closer this season as a result.
Let’s move on to this season. No team has impressed me more than Michigan (11-0). The Wolverines participated in the Players Era Festival and completely dominated the competition. They beat San Diego State by 40, Auburn by 30 and Gonzaga by 40. They followed that up with a 41-point win over Rutgers, a 28-point win over Villanova and a convincing win at Maryland. They also sport the No. 1 ranking in Ken Pom. This is clearly the current overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended today.
Arizona comes in as the next No. 1 seed as it picked up massive wins on the road at UConn and at Alabama. It has to be noted that the Huskies were not at full strength in this game, but winning on the road in that environment is still a big deal. The Wildcats also have wins over UCLA and Florida.
Iowa State had a shocking dominating performance at Purdue last week as it defeated the Boilermakers 81-58. I’m not sure there will be another victory this season that tops this one. The Cyclones followed up this win with a comeback win over rival Iowa. Another quality win to add to its excellent resume.
Duke rounds out the No. 1 seed line as it has a nice collection of wins over Florida, Arkansas (n), Kansas (n), Texas (n) and at Michigan State. The Blue Devils are 4-0 against Q1 opponents and have another spicy matchup upcoming on Saturday against Texas Tech.
Here are a few thoughts regarding today’s bracket:
- We’ll start with Kentucky. It might be a shock to some, but the Wildcats are NOT in the current bracket. They finally picked up a quality win over the weekend against Indiana and they really needed it to keep their resume afloat. They have a strength of record ranking of No. 63, a WAB ranking of No. 49 and don’t possess any wins away from home. Kentucky has strong predictive metrics, but remember, those only matter if a resume is good enough to be included. Plenty of opportunities lie ahead for the Wildcats, but as of this moment, there’s much work to be done.
- UConn is my top No. 2 seed. The Huskies have scheduled like a championship program should schedule, while holding wins against BYU, Illinois and Florida on a neutral court and at Kansas. This is a team that can easily move up to a No. 1 seed in due time.
- Vanderbilt is a bit of a surprise to see with a NET of No. 4 in the country. The Commodores have solid wins away from home (St. Mary’s, UCF, SMU, VCU) which certainly plays a role in this ranking. I am curious to see how they progress, but this is for sure a major coup for the SEC.
- St. John’s had high expectations coming into this season, but have yet to meet them. The Red Storm should be able to reel off a few wins in a row before a potential pivotal matchup against Kentucky later this week. At some point, they have to beat quality teams in order to get a top tier seed in the NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately, this is another year where the Big East just won’t provide many opportunities to do so.
- College basketball fans really need to pay extra attention to SOR and WAB this year. Not only do you want your team to beat quality opponents, but these two result-based metrics play a SIGNIFICANT role in whether or not a team makes the NCAA Tournament. I wouldn’t put too much in these numbers yet because there are a ton of games left to play, but definitely something to monitor with each passing week. At the end of the day, if you’re not in the top 50 in these metrics, you MUST own a good chunk of wins over other tourney teams if you want to get in.
Last 4 Byes
Ohio State, Colorado, Arizona State, Virginia Tech
Last 4 In
St. Louis, California, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame
First 4 Out
Baylor, Oklahoma, UCLA, Villanova
Next 4 Out
Indiana, NC State, Kentucky, New Mexico
Bracketology
American Eagles
Howard Bison
California Golden Bears
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
UT Martin Skyhawks
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saint Louis Billikens
Iowa State Cyclones
Vermont Catamounts
Seton Hall Pirates
Ohio State Buckeyes
Illinois Fighting Illini
Belmont Bruins
Louisville Cardinals
Northern Colorado Bears
Auburn Tigers
California Golden Bears
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Oklahoma State Cowboys
Michigan State Spartans
Lipscomb
Georgia Bulldogs
Colorado Buffaloes
Gonzaga Bulldogs
South Alabama Jaguars
Michigan Wolverines
Long Island Sharks
Utah State Aggies
SMU Mustangs
Virginia Cavaliers
High Point Panthers
Alabama Crimson Tide
California Baptist Lancers
USC Trojans
Yale Bulldogs
Houston Cougars
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Florida Gators
Butler Bulldogs
BYU Cougars
Kennesaw State Owls
Arizona Wildcats
Howard Bison
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American Eagles
Miami Hurricanes
LSU Tigers
Arkansas Razorbacks
George Mason
North Carolina Tar Heels
UNC Wilmington Seahawks
St. John's Red Storm
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Vanderbilt Commodores
Siena Saints
Clemson Tigers
Arizona State Sun Devils
Purdue Boilermakers
North Dakota State Bison
Duke Blue Devils
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
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UT Martin Skyhawks
Iowa Hawkeyes
UCF Knights
Tennessee Volunteers
Miami Ohio Red Hawks
Kansas Jayhawks
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
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Saint Louis Billikens
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Saint Mary's Gaels
Virginia Tech Hokies
UConn Huskies
Youngstown State Penguins
Bids by Conference
| Conference | No. of Bids |
|---|---|
| ACC | 10 |
| Big 12 | 10 |
| Big Ten | 8 |
| SEC | 8 |
| Big East | 4 |
| WCC | 2 |
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