Welcome to the last weekend in January, which means that February is at hand, which means that March is coming, which means that it’s time for college basketball to get really real.
Between cold freezes, winter blizzards and the cyclone bombs, we have all the more reason to be grateful for the warm, comfortable slipper that is college hoops. I went from ice cold to lukewarm on my picks, so I’m ready to get really real as well.
Here are my picks against the spread for today’s top games.
BYU at Kansas
Seth’s Analysis
We had a chance back in November to watch Kansas’ Darryn Peterson take on Duke’s Cameron Boozer, but Peterson missed that game due to a hamstring injury. He also missed last Saturday’s home win over Kansas State due to a sprained ankle, but apparently Peterson is healthy and good to go for his matchup against BYU and its scintillating freshman forward, A.J. Dybantsa. These are likely to be the top two picks in the 2026 NBA Draft, but for now, their main goal is to get this win. The Cougars roared their way to a 16-1 start, with the lone loss coming by two points at UConn. But the schedule got more difficult, and within their last three games they fell at Texas Tech and then at home to Arizona, although they did nearly erase a 19-point deficit to the Wildcats over the last 11 minutes in that one. Dybantsa was 11 of 16 from the foul line en route to scoring 24 points, but he was also 6 for 24 from the field. So if the Jayhawks can do a better job defending him without fouling, then Kansas should cruise. The cynic might suggest that the Jayhawks always get a friendly whistle in Allen Fieldhouse, but I think they will benefit more from a defense that ranks No. 13 nationally in adjusted efficiency on KenPom. I’m especially looking forward to watching BYU Glue Guy Keba Keita try to deal with Kansas’ 6-foot-10 sophomore forward Flory Bidunga down low. The bottom line is, with Peterson in the fold Kansas is a Final four-caliber team. And it is rarely a smart bet to go against the Jayhawks at home.
Indiana at UCLA
Seth’s Analysis
UCLA’s season might well have turned around when the Bruins beat Purdue, 69-67, at home on Jan. 20. The Hoosiers hope to say the same following their 72-67 triumph over the Boilermakers at home on Tuesday night. Indiana is learning how to win games without stellar offensive performances from Tucker DeVries. He had 9 points on 3 of 7 shooting (all threes) against Purdue, but the Hoosiers were able to prevail thanks to 18 points from 6-foot-7 junior guard Nick Dorn, who has suddenly emerged as a major contributor off the bench. Indiana is going to face a much tougher defensive squad in UCLA, which has won five of its last six to vault up the Big Ten standings. New Mexico transfer Donovan Dent is finally playing up to his expectations, and the Bruins have gotten stellar play from 6-foot-4 sophomore guard Trent Perry, who has started the last seven games in place of the injured Skyy Clark. Perry has averaged 15.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.6 steals in that stretch, and he may hold onto the starting job even after Clark returns from his hamstring injury.
Kentucky at Arkansas
Seth’s Analysis
The season can’t end soon enough for Kentucky. The Wildcats were already dealing with injuries to their top two transfers, 6-foot-3 junior point guard Jaland Lowe and 6-foot-10 sophomore forward Jayden Quaintance, before Kam Williams went down last week with a season-ending foot injury. Lowe is likewise done for the season, and Quaintance, who is fighting his way back from a torn ACL a year ago at Arizona State, is not even practicing due to swelling. The result is a team that’s a shell of itself, as demonstrated by Wednesday’s humiliating 80-55 loss at Vanderbilt. The only way Kentucky could pull off the upset in Bud Walton Arena is to catch the Razorbacks sleeping, and given that their coach used to, you know, coach at Kentucky, that is unlikely to happen. Arkansas has won three straight, including a 25-point shellacking at home over that same Vanderbilt squad, and it just won at Oklahoma on Wednesday thanks to a combined 37 points from freshmen phenoms Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas. Acuff added 10 assists with 0 turnovers in the win. It’s going to be a long night in Fayetteville for the Wildcats.
UConn at Creighton
Seth’s Analysis
UConn is still winning, but the games have not been easy of late. Woeful outside shooting and poor defensive rebounding have made life a little more challenging for the Huskies. Their last six wins have included a pair of overtime victories at Providence and at home over Villanova, as well as a five-point win at Seton Hall, a two-point win at Georgetown, and Tuesday’s 87-81 decision at home over Providence. Things have been a lot worse at Creighton, which followed its one-point squeaker at home over Xavier by getting embarrassed by 24 points at Marquette on Tuesday night. The Bluejays shot 7 of 34 from three in the loss and only attempted four free throws. Can you say soft? UConn is not a team you want to play when you need to reverse momentum, but picking games is all about spying the swinging pendulum. I think the Bluejays will at least show up to compete in this one.
Saint Mary’s at Gonzaga
Seth’s Analysis
This is the last time these two teams will face off in The Kennel as conference foes, as the Zags will head to the refashioned Pac-12 next season. The good news for the Zags is senior forward Graham Ike is due to make his return after missing the last three games with ankle soreness. They’re already playing without their second-leading scorer, Braden Huff, so they need all hands on deck. Saint Mary’s is having a typical Saint Mary’s season, which involves playing smart, patient, efficient basketball (and knocking down a nation’s-best 81.8 percent of their free throws) and winning a lot of games. Missing Huff could be an issue against a Gaels squad that leads the WCC in rebound margin (+10.5). Saint Mary’s has won the last two WCC regular season titles outright, so I’m sure the Zags would like to keep their one-game advantage in the standings. But these are two good teams in a pitched rivalry, and this point spread is really big.
Last Week: 2-3
Season total: 22-33
Meet your guide
