Welcome to another edition of the Hoops HQ Fast Break, where we ask our tandem of experts a series of questions for the week ahead. Andy Katz and Seth Davis are locked and loaded with their hot takes, pro picks and trusty Worry-o-Meter. Lace ’em up and let’s roll.
Q: What’s next for Charles Bediako after the judge recused himself from his case?
Seth Davis: Breaking news: on Wednesday morning, the judge in the case in Tuscaloosa who issued the initial temporary restraining order in favor of Charles Bediako for the Crimson Tide has recused himself from the case. The NCAA petitioned for his recusal and that was granted so they’re going to have to find a new judge. I am told, Andy, that this is not really going to impact the timetable of this case. The initial TRO was for 10 days, so it was pending another injunction hearing — which was supposed to take place on Tuesday.
My initial take Andy is first of all, it should not have taken a motion from the NCA for Judge Roberts to take himself off the case. He is a donor to Alabama athletics. And this is why people have questions about our justice system and about these cases taking place in local jurisdictions right down the road in Tuscaloosa. It’s very disappointing.that he issued that TRO in the first place. But to me, what is notably different about this situation is that Charles Bediako is a good player. He is starting for Alabama. He is giving them a presence on the interior that they hadn’t had. They blitzed Missouri. Now they lost the first game with him. But the point is that he’s a significant player. So as long as he’s in Alabama’s lineup,they’re a much better team, but what’s your take on this story as it stands?
Andy Katz: Look, as a son of a lawyer, the brother to a lawyer, and the cousin to a judge, I think it’s absolutely ridiculous that any judge would be in this position. Judges should not be donors. Full stop, period. You want to go to your local basketball game or football game? Great. If you have to pay for the seats like a personal licensing fee, fine.
You should not be a donor if you are a judge. You’re supposed to be impartial because there could be cases related to that university, not just in athletics. So I just can’t even believe that this judge would be on this case. It’s ridiculous. I’m glad he did it. And we’ll see if hopefully an impartial judge makes a fair decision on the case.
Q: Could Duke be a national championship contender?
Seth: Your Duke Blue Devils had what was supposed to be their toughest game of the season on Monday at home against Louisville. They blitzed Louisville — ran them out of Cameron Indoor Stadium. If it weren’t for a one point loss to Texas Tech where they blew a late lead in Madison Square Garden, Duke would be undefeated. It’s hard to think about Duke flying under the radar, but what’s your take? Are we underrating Duke as a national championship contender?
Andy: We are, there’s no question about it. And we can’t compare them to last year because that’s irrelevant. Did they have more talent a year ago? They did, and they really could have won the national championship a year ago if not for the collapse that happened against Houston. Cameron Boozer is a transformational player, but they’re getting really good complimentary play, maybe better than that. Certainly from Isaiah Evans, notably. There are other rotation guys who have played exceptionally well.
I think there’s a great chance that they could run the table in the ACC. It’s always difficult to win at Carolina, obviously, because of the rivalry. They still have to play Virginia. But I think they are clearly the number one seed. They could actually be the number one overall. We’ll see what happens with Arizona. But, they’re going to be in an advantageous position, in Greenville. Then, we’ll see if they’re in D.C., or what their next stop will be along the way. But I think they have a great shot to get the Indy and compete for the title.
Seth: You make a great point about them being compared to last year’s team. They’re not as good as last year’s team. But I keep saying they don’t have to beat last year’s team, right? They only have to beat the teams in front of them. It is interesting though, that kind of the same thing that happened with them last year, when we were all saying the ACC is better. But once again, they know they played a bunch of close games: Georgia Tech at home and Florida State on the road, and SMU played them real tough. But it is starting to look like it’s Duke and everybody else.
Can Florida Repeat? The Numbers Say It Has as Good a Chance as Anyone.
Jan 30: Nebraska and BYU are unable to secure needle-moving wins, while New Mexico and Indiana rise up the seed list
Q: Are we still impressed by Nebraska after their first loss?
Seth: Last question, Nebraska is no longer undefeated. They went into Ann Arbor, Michigan without two of their top three players. We knew that Braden Frager, their freshmen, was not going to play because of an ankle injury. Rienk Mast, their best player and dynamic forward, was a late scratch because of the flu. And yet they took the Michigan Wolverines down to the wire. They lost the game, but I thought it was a really great showing.
Even though Nebraska lost, did you come away more impressed with them or less impressed with them because they lost?
Andy: Much more impressed. I think it really reinforces what we said last week — before we had Fred Hoiberg on — that I think he’s the national coach of the year because of what he’s done. But more than anything, it’s the defensive. They really flustered Michigan, and Michigan was really out of rhythm.
And so the fact that they almost beat Michigan without two of their top three players offensively was impressive. Jamarques Lawrence went off; they’re shooting threes. As far as their schedule, they have two monumental home games coming up: Illinois at home and Purdue at home. If they can win those two, you know, they’re going to be right there potentially still to be a one or two seed.
Seth: It’s a remarkable story. I totally agree. There’s such a spirit and a toughness about this team. And I think it’s worth noting that Fred Horberg is now in his seventh year at Nebraska. There was a time when he had to take a pay cut. He was on the hot seat. Trev Alberts was the athletic director. It was a dicey situation and a lot of other places may not have kept him. I saw some chatter online from reporters and media covering Louisville, saying is it time to start talking about Pat Kelsey? I was like, what are you even talking about? I just think it’s very instructive that Nebraska stood by their man. I think fans and athletic directors and university administration are too impatient to give their head coaches time to grow and learn from their mistakes and give them a little bit more runway, give them a little bit more equity. They don’t always end up like Fred Hoiberg has, but in this case they have. It’s been an unbelievable story.
Q: Third loss in a row: what’s wrong with Purdue?
Seth: The Purdue Boilermakers lost three in a row, now having lost at Indiana. Andy, what’s wrong with the Boilermakers?
Andy: Braden Smith’s not getting enough help. I mean, it’s that simple. Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer — two anchors, fellow classmates — have been sort of reliable over the last couple of years. Now, that’s not the case. And they can’t rely on Oscar Cluff or C.J. Cox, to rise up. And they were supposed to have this big three, and they haven’t had it. And that’s a problem. The UCLA loss was winnable, no question about it. So that one is a raised red flag. Obviously, Indiana was desperate. You got the football team celebrating the championship. They’re walking into a total Lion’s den there, and now they’ve lost three in a row. No question, they’re in a danger zone right now: for the Big Ten title and for NCAA tournament seeding.
Seth: And that’s important. When we talk about Purdue being in trouble, we’re talking about their Final Four aspirations. I think Matt Painter is caught in a classic situation where he’s got a couple of really good offensive players — like Oscar Cluff and Fletcher Loyer — who are terrible on the defensive end. Oscar Cluff is a disaster when he comes out and tries to hedge out on ball screens. He’s got some guys off the bench who are a little bit better defensively, but can’t score. I know Trey Coffin-Renz has been banged up all season long, but you hit on the head. They got Superman, or Braden Smith, but not enough else
Q: Can Gonzaga hang on?
Seth: Gonzaga’s got a big game at home against St. Mary’s. It’s their last season game in the West Coast Conference. No Braden Huff. Graham Ike has been banged up. Are you buying the zags at this point? Can they hang on and do what they always do in March?
Andy: They have to get healthy. So now what they have to do — and they’ve been able to do it to this point — is hold on for dear life in the WCC. Unfortunately, they may have to run the table to get one of those top two-line seeds. If they lose a couple games in the WCC, then they can easily slide down a peg or two. They’re still going to be in the top four lines, no question about that. They’re still going to be in Portland.
But right now, it’s all about them holding on so that when they are healthy, and back to where they are, they have a chance to get to Indianapolis. No question about it. It would be Portland, then San Jose, and that’s a nice little path for them. But they cannot afford to lose some of these WCC games because it could affect their seeding. So Huff needs to get healthy and so does Ike.
Seth: My understanding is that they’re not even positive Huff will be back for the NCAA tournament. My concern with them is not only getting him back, but getting him back with enough time and enough repetitions to get into a good rhythm. He’s a veteran player, so that certainly helps. The good news, bad news is that the league is not going to give them much resistance. They only beat San Francisco at home by two, and we know how good that rivalry is with St, Mary’s. So I’m going to be very interested to see how they fare. I think we’re going to learn a lot more. Hopefully, Ike plays in that one.
Q: Is Texas A&M for real?
Seth: If we asked anybody watching us right now, there’s a team that’s alone in first place in the SEC: who are they?, I’m not sure too many of them would say Texas A&M. So the question at hand is, are they for real? We’re going to find out because they’re going to have tougher games in a league. But remember, they won that crazy game at Auburn where there was a buzzer beater that was ruled good and then waved off. They also won at Texas, which is not easy to do. Their only loss in the SEC came in double overtime at Tennessee. They also have an overtime loss to SMU. Those are their only two losses since mid November. We’ll see how good they are.
I am a believer, certainly, in Bucky McMillan, and the style that they play. He played coach for five years at Samford. Up-and-Down-Bucky-Ball, they call it They’re 27th in the country in tempo. They love to shoot the three. Are you buying Texas A&M?
Andy: I’m buying them to make the tournament. I’m not buying them to win the SEC. They did get a little bit of a scheduling favor because their schedule is more backloaded in the league. So they’ve got confidence. They got a little bit of speed going, literally and figuratively. So we’ll see if they can hold on. I don’t think they’re going to win the league, but they’re going to be in the tournament.
Seth: Well, they’ve got road games coming up — Georgia and Alabama — and then Florida and Missouri, Vanderbilt away. If they can win two or three of those games, then maybe they’ll start getting people talking.
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