Lo and behold, we are in the last week of January. You don’t have to look at your calendar to understand what’s coming next. College basketball has been on fire since the opening tip last November 3. Things are only going to get hotter over the next 12 weeks.
We were treated to some incredible freshman performances over the weekend, and plenty of consequential results that impacted my rankings. Once again, I’ve relied on a diverse set of metrics to guide my work although I made a switch this week as as I added Kevin Pauga’s KPI rankings to the mix. KPI is what you call a “non-linear” results-based ranking which gives added weight to good wins and bad losses. I also used my usual helpers of KenPom, which is a predictive metric, and Bart Torvik’s Wins Above Bubble, which is a purely results-based metric. Those three numbers appear in order next to each team (KenPom-KPI-WAB). The number in parentheses indicates where the team was ranked on my ballot last week.
Here, then, is the (correct) order of the top 25 teams in men’s college basketball, as filed to the Associated Press Sunday night.
DROPPED OUT: Iowa (20), Clemson (21), Kentucky (22)
ALMOST FAMOUS: SMU (35-22-21), Georgia (33-34-23), Tennessee (20-32-35), Villanova (27-30-24), Ohio State (38-49-44), Utah State (32-28-43), Saint Mary’s (34-24-33)
Notes on the votes
• There’s no way I was going to move down UConn just for winning close games, but it has been noteworthy to see a team with national championship aspirations play five straight very competitive games against mostly so-so teams. Since Jan. 7, the Huskies overcame a late 11-point deficit to win by five in overtime at Providence; defeated DePaul by 12 at home; almost gave away an 18-point lead at Seton Hall before escaping by five; struggled to win at Georgetown by two; and gotten extended by Villanova into overtime at home before prevailing by eight. You’ll notice that UConn has dropped to No. 10 at KenPom. My sense is that it is just the dog days of the season barking as is their wont, but it’s definitely a trend worth watching.
• Two of my biggest risers were Illinois, which beat Maryland and Purdue in its first two games without point guard Kylan Boswell, who is out a month with a hand injury; and Texas Tech, which avenged its loss at Houston with a 90-86 win over the Cougars in Lubbock on Saturday. The Red Raiders’ next game is at UCF on Saturday, followed by a home date with Kansas two days later.
• Speaking of Purdue, it was a rough week for the Boilermakers, who followed up their 69-67 loss at UCLA by falling 88-82 at home to Illinois on Saturday. Braden Smith was brilliant as usual in both games, but the Boilermakers have an unhealthy habit of slogging their way through games and expecting Smith’s Superman act to save the day. Most of the time it works, but the two losses underscore the defensive deficiencies on this squad. Purdue needs to build new habits, beginning with its game at Indiana Tuesday night, if it it’s going to finish the season where it wants, which is down the road from campus at the Final Four in Indianapolis.
• Vanderbilt lost its third straight on Tuesday at Arkansas before rebounding with an 88-56 trouncing of Mississippi State on Saturday. The Commodores have been a metrics darling all season, but aside from their home win over Alabama, they don’t have any impressive victories over quality teams. Might this team be a tad overrated? We’ll find out more when they play Kentucky in Nashville on Tuesday.
• North Carolina made a surprise return by notching its biggest win of the season, an 85-80 victory at Virginia. The Cavaliers had only lost one previous ACC game, in triple overtime to Virginia Tech, and had been crawling up the rankings. The Tar Heels buckled down their defense and got a stellar outing from freshman point guard Derek Dixon, who had 11 points, 7 assists and 1 turnover in the win. We know how brilliant the Tar Heels are in the frontcourt, but if they can get more stability at that vital position, they could be in position for a pretty good month. As for the Cavaliers, they still have a solid resume, but they missed an important opportunity to gain some traction against one of the sport’s blue-chip programs.
• Those on-again, off-again Auburn Tigers are on again after winning at Alabama. No team has moved on and off my ballot more frequently this season. The Tigers are inconsistent, to say the least, but when they’re good, they’re really good, as they showed again with a 76-67 win at Florida on Saturday. Auburn also beat St. John’s on a neutral court as well as Arkansas and NC State at home. Their only loss outside of Quad 1 came at home by two points to Texas A&M. That’s a Top 25-caliber team.
• As for my Almost Famous group, I probably should have ranked Tennessee following its win at Alabama, but the metrics rankings in KPI and WAB worked against the Vols, and I simply ran out of room. Villanova also missed a huge opportunity at UConn, and they have now lost their three toughest games. They have six winnable games coming up, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see them jump onto my ballot here in the next couple of weeks.
• The re-entries of North Carolina and Auburn forced me to drop Iowa and Kentucky. Of the six metrics rankings between them, only Iowa’s No. 21 on KenPom was in a top 25. Clemson got dinged for losing at home to NC State on Tuesday, although it’s worth noting that the Tigers are No. 20 in WAB. Any or all of those could have been ranked again this week, but I wanted to make room for the two mid-major darlings at the bottom of my ballot, Saint Louis and Miami (Ohio). It’s amazing that the Billikens are one crazy buzzer beater by Stanford from being undefeated, and even crazier that the RedHawks are undefeated after having won back-to-back overtime games. They are an amazing story in a college hoops season that have been full of them.
Meet your guide
