I don’t know what’s more amazing — that we’re in the third week of January and perennial doormat, Nebraska, is still undefeated. Or that that isn’t even the most remarkable undefeated story in the sport?
You could make the case (and our own Aaron Cohen does) that that label belongs to Miami of Ohio, which remained perfect courtesy of a dramatic overtime win over Buffalo on Saturday that included not one but two buzzer beaters. I am always transparent about why I make my decisions as an AP voter, and to this point I have not ranked the RedHawks due to their weak schedule and poor metrics. But 19-0 is 19-0 and besides, the RedHawks are now up to No. 25 in Bartovrik’s Wins Above Bubble rankings. So for the first time all season, they have a number next to their name – in this space, at least.
As for the rest of my rankings, once again I relied on a diverse trio of metrics: KenPom, a predictive metric which includes data from last season; BartTorvik, which is filtered to include games from this season only; and WAB, which is a purely results-based ranking. Keep in mind my rule for relying on such numbers: Metrics are useful, but they’re not gospel.
Here, then, is the (correct) order of the top 25 teams in men’s college basketball, as filed to the Associated Press Sunday night.
The metrics rankings are listed in order next to each team, and their rankings on my ballot last week are in parentheses.
DROPPED OUT: North Carolina (17), Tennessee (19), Georgia (20), Wisconsin (22), SMU (23), Auburn (25)
ALMOST FAMOUS: UCF (44-44-20), Utah State (25-27-23), Villanova (27-35-22), Saint Mary’s (32-32-26), Saint Louis (29-25-27), Texas (40-42-66), George Mason (73-102-34), Miami (31-37-28)
Notes on the votes
• It was a rough week for Iowa State. The Cyclones were undefeated and riding high heading into their game at Kansas last Tuesday. You knew the Jayhawks would be ready to play after that embarrassing loss at West Virginia (their second in three games) knocked them out of the rankings. But it was shocking to see the Cyclones thoroughly outclassed in an 84-63 loss. Even more shocking was seeing Iowa State lose at struggling Cincinnati by nine points five days later. Iowa State still has top-10 metrics and has been playing great all season (including a decisive win at Purdue), so I only knocked it down five spots. The Cyclones head into the easier part of their Big 12 schedule the next three weeks, so I suspect they will turn things around.
• Florida continues its rise after dropping off my ballot two weeks ago. The Gators scored impressive road wins at Oklahoma and Vanderbilt and have now won four in a row. They are starting to look like the team to beat in the SEC, and have two more wins set up for them this week at home against LSU and Auburn.
• Speaking of Vanderbilt, the Commodores finally floated back to Earth with losses to Texas (road) and Florida (home). And things won’t get any easier as they travel to Arkansas and Mississippi State. This is still a terrific team with a potent offense, but I think the Commodores’ lack of physicality up front could cost them as they slog through league play in the weeks ahead.
• A couple of ACC teams are climbing up the board, although they are not garnering much national attention. Look at Virginia’s metrics. The numbers are trying to tell us something after the Cavs won road games at Louisville and SMU. They are now 5-1 in the ACC (16-2) and have a week off before North Carolina comes to town on Saturday. And Clemson rolled over Boston College and Miami at home to improve to 6-0 in the ACC (16-2 overall). The job that Brad Brownell has done after losing all but one player from last year’s second-place ACC team is simply remarkable.
• Some other big-name brands returned to my ballot. Kansas righted the ship with that convincing win at home over Iowa State followed by an 80-62 thrashing of Baylor. It took the Jayhawks a few games to get used to playing with Darryn Peterson again, but make no mistake, this team is capable of winning the NCAA championship. Kentucky is back again following dramatic second-half road comebacks at LSU and Tennessee. It’s a shame the Wildcats will be without point guard Jaland Lowe for the season (he is having shoulder surgery), but I believe the removal of the uncertainy around his situation is a good thing.
And we knew it was only a matter of time before Rick Pitino started figuring some things out at St. John’s. His decision to insert 6-foot-9 forward Dillon Michell into the starting lineup has paid huge dividends. The Red Storm scored impressive wins last week over Marquette and Villanova and are now alone in second place in the Big East with a 6-1 record. We’re all counting down the days until their Feb. 6 clash with UConn in Madison Square Garden.
• I dropped six teams from my ballot following losses and/or wins by other teams that leapfrogged them. The most concerning of the bunch is North Carolina, which got swept in the Bay Area last week by Stanford and Cal. The Tar Heels are regressing in too many areas, and they are very porous on defense. This team has some soul searching to do heading into games this week against Notre Dame and Virginia. The Heels have wins over Kansas, Kentucky and Ohio State on their resume, so it’s not yet time to be concerned about their NCAA Tournament status. They just need some quality wins, and that starts with tightening up that D.
• As for my Almost Famous list, Texas would have gotten strong consideration to be ranked following wins over Alabama and Vanderbilt, the Longhorns flew a little too close to the sun and fell at home to Texas A&M. Even if they had won that game, their metrics might have kept them off my ballot.
Utah State still deserved consideration based on its record and metrics, but the loss at Grand Canyon was just enough to keep the Aggies off. And keep your eye on Saint Louis. The Fighting Avilas are 17-1 (5-0 Atlantic 10) and have strong metrics. They have two road games coming up at Duquesne and St. Bonaventure.
Meet your guide
