Seth Davis and Andy Katz on Duke, Michigan, Arizona as the College Basketball Season Heats Up

Andy: I need to ask: If the tournament were tomorrow, which of the five frontrunners would get a No. 2 seed?

Seth: Well, interestingly enough, it might be Michigan just in terms of the number of quality wins.

Andy: Here’s my take: Who’s No. 1?: I’d say Arizona. Who’s the best team? I’d say Michigan. The Wolverines essentially have nine starters. 

Q: Give me your take on this St. John’s team. How good are they and what kind of game will they play against Kentucky on Saturday?

Andy: Honestly, I think this match would be a bigger deal if it was in Lexington. I was actually at the Louisville-Kentucky game when Rick Pitino came back for the first time and that was nasty. You know, he’s back in the fold and they love him. So I don’t anticipate it being negative, but this is a big game for both schools. No question about it.

Seth: Give me your take on St. John’s. The Ian Jackson point guard experiment did not seem to go all that well. Pitino said he made him cut his hair because he thought he was committing too many turnovers with his peripheral vision blocked and he still did not have a great floor game. It seems like they just don’t have a point guard.

Andy: Yeah, they don’t have a point guard. To me, that kind of negates them being a Final Four team. They played with fire against Iona but their shooting is erratic. Now, no one else has Zuby Etchifor and he blocked eight shots in that game against Iona. That’ll be a problem for Kentucky.

Seth: Kentucky is obviously a fascinating story this season for a whole lot of reasons. There’s always a lot of attention on Lexington and people talk about its roster construction — they don’t fit. Clearly they’ve had injuries. Jalen Lowe and Muhammad Diobate were both out for a while, but played against Indiana and played really well.

The Wildcats are not good enough to not be at full strength. They’re waiting on Jayden Quaintance. 

Q: Could Jayden Quaintance’s return save Kentucky’s season?

Seth: Everyone thinks he’s going to be the savior. Jayden is a sophomore forward, transferred in from Arizona State and blew out his knee. He’s a very physical player, an elite defensive interior guy, so he’ll make them a lot better. What you have to remember is when you come back from an ACL, it takes a long time to get back into shape.

Quaintance, right now, is the only player on this roster projected to be a first round draft pick. So to me, it’s not about roster construction, injuries, chemistry, all that. They’re just not that talented of a team. People keep saying they got this $22-million roster. What do they really get for $22 million? So this is a big game for Kentucky as well. 

Q: Who’s the favorite in the SEC? Arkansas or Alabama?

Seth: Right now, I’d say it’s probably Arkansas. Alabama has like the highest ceiling if they’re healthy. They just got Latrell Wrightsell back, but they got their doors blown off against Arizona. 

Regardless, it’s clearly those two. I think Tennessee’s been a bit of a disappointment. The league is definitely not where it was last year, so it won’t be 14 teams.

Q: Is Nebraska for real?

Seth: So last week I did not rank Nebraska, even though they were still undefeated and in fact have the nation’s longest win streak going back to last year. I withheld voting Nebraska because I wanted to see how they were going to do this week.

Andy: Heading into this week, you could argue Nebraska’s best win was Oklahoma. They also beat New Mexico, Kansas State and Creighton.

Seth: And then this week they drilled Wisconsin by 30 at home, and even more impressively went into Illinois on Saturday and beat a pretty good Illini team. Pryce Sandfort did his best Steph Curry imitation in the first half, scored 26 points, then Rienk Mast took over in the second half, with a game winner at the end. If you want to know if Nebraska is for real, those two wins certainly did it for me. 

Q: Nebraska has famously never won an NCAA Tournament game. Is this their year?

Andy: Yes, I’m going to say it is. I had Nebraska near the bottom of my preseason Big Ten rankings, because we didn’t know — I didn’t know. I hope Sam Hoiberg is going to make your All-Glue team because he’s the ultimate Glue Guy.

Seth: Yep, really good defender, too.

Andy: We just didn’t know how all these pieces were going to fit and how they were going to defend. So yes, I think they’re going to get a win. I also would argue right now that they are a top five Big Ten team. 

Seth: No question. As of this conversation, they’re 28th on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency. That is by far the highest a Fred Hoiberg team has been ranked, including in his five years at Iowa State. On Jan. 2 they’ve got Michigan State at home. Would you predict them to win that game? I would.

Andy: Yes.

Q: What’s up with Darryn Peterson?

Seth: Kansas pulled off a nice win at North Carolina state, but the larger concern continues to be Peterson’s hamstring. He’s come back the last two games against Missouri and NC State and played well in both wins. But during the NC State game, he spent a lot of time on the bench, gunning his hamstring.

Andy: I’m not going to put on my Dr. Katz hat here, but the hamstring injury is one that usually requires rest because you don’t want to overstretch it. You don’t want to strain it.

Peterson is a competitor and he’s on a team that could go far in the NCAA Tournament. So I won’t be shocked if they shut him down for another couple of weeks because it’s a really tricky injury to come back from.

Seth: From what we know about this kid, his family and the program, you don’t use Kansas as a way station till you get to the NBA. I have no doubt that he wants to play. He wants to try to win a championship for Kansas and that he is not the type of player to shut it down for NBA purposes. But hamstrings are tricky and it’s just not a good sign when you see him on the bench constantly.

Ultimately, for them to reach their goals, they need Peterson not just in the lineup, but healthy and strong.

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Q: Time for the Worry-o-Meter. How concerning was Illinois’ home loss to Nebraska? 

Andy: I’m not worried about Illinois in the sense that they’re a tournament team. What concerns me is that I don’t think they can take that next big jump. They’ve not been as consistent with the foreign guys — some have played well, some haven’t. Obviously Keaton Wagler is a phenomenal freshman, but outside of Texas Tech at home and at Tennessee in Nashville, they haven’t met the moment.

Seth: I’m definitely concerned because, I thought that if they’re healthy and playing at full capacity, that they may have the highest ceiling in the Big Ten. I don’t know that I feel that way anymore. 

This team is a little bit soft on the defensive end. Coach Underwood basically benched David Mirkovic, saying he wasn’t putting in the effort. They had a bad couple of days of practice ahead of a huge game at home. You wonder about that.

Q: Worry-o-Meter Round 2: How worrying has Indiana’s start been?

Andy: I’m very worried. They can score — Lamar Wilkerson had 44, with 10 threes vs. Penn State — but defensively, I’m very concerned. I think they are in the middle-to-bottom of that second tier in the Big Ten. They could be passed by Washington.

Q: Will Indiana play in the NCAA Tournament?

Andy: I would say yes, but they could end up in the First Four.

Seth: I’m going to say no. They have two really high-end scorers in Tucker DeVries and Lamar Wilkerson, but they just don’t have much else, and they don’t have much up front. They’re not going to scare anyone with their physicality. That’s a hard formula.

Q: Worry-o-Meter Round 3: How many Big East teams will make the NCAA Tournament?

Andy: I’m very concerned. I’m going to say they get three. I am really high on Seton Hall.

Seth: Yeah, Seton Hall is clearly better, clearly playing tougher basketball. They still have a lot to prove.

Andy: Danny Hurley and UConn have really struggled at Seton Hall. I could see the Pirates beating him again. I could see them beating St. John’s at home.

Seth: I would say the Big East will probably get at least three teams into the tournament. Butler’s a sneaky good team, just logged a really exciting win over Providence in double overtime. Villanova is quietly playing some pretty decent basketball, really one of the great rebounders in the country in Duke Brennan and a good three-point shooter in Bryce Lindsay.

Q: Looking ahead to Saturday, who’s your pick for Arkansas vs. Houston in Newark?

Andy: We don’t talk enough about Houston. They’re not as good as they’ve been, but they’re still really good. But I like the mojo with Arkansas. At the end of that game against Texas Tech, there was a little bit of a feistiness. I think they’ve got a bit more toughness to them. Against Houston on a neutral floor, I’m taking Arkansas.

Seth: I’ll take Arkansas, too. Houston’s a little bit of an unknown. They beat Syracuse in overtime, they lost to Tennessee. They beat Auburn by one point, so that’s really their best win. They are not as good as last year. But again, if you look at their metrics, they’re still a top 10 squad. 

Seeing the emergence of Arkansas’ Trevon Brazile as someone who you can count on consistently to be a force in the middle, offensively and defensively is a huge game changer. I’ll take the Hogs.

Q: Who’s your pick for North Carolina vs. Ohio State in Atlanta?

Andy: Caleb Wilson will be the best player on the floor. Bruce Thornton will be the best playmaker, but the Tar Heels have some depth. Henry Veesaar is playing very well. I’m going North Carolina.

Seth Davis: I’m taking North Carolina, too. 

Q: Who’s your pick for Texas Tech vs. Duke at Madison Square Garden?

Seth: This will clearly be a road game for the Red Raiders.

Andy: Madison Square Garden is Cameron North. I don’t know the spread, but I think Duke wins by at least a couple possessions.

Seth: Duke’s an interesting team. I think Duke is not as good as they were last year. And I think as a result, they may be harder to beat in the NCAA Tournament. Last year’s team was too good for its own good.

Q: Who’s your pick for Auburn vs. Purdue in Indianapolis?

Andy: Purdue wins by double figures.

Seth: Well, I wouldn’t pick against Purdue, especially in that city; it’s going to be a de facto home game. One thing we are seeing with these Boilermakers is that they can get overwhelmed athletically. And one thing about Auburn is that they are very deep with a lot of long agile athletes. 

Can Auburn deal defensively with Braden Smith? That’s not easy to do. Tahaad Pettiford is very up and down. He’s got this weird quirk of playing poorly at home. He played well over the weekend against a weaker opponent. But for whatever reason, plays a lot better on the road. He looked great in Vegas during the Players Era. So, I’ll take Purdue to win.