Fred Hoiberg might be America’s hottest coach, but it wasn’t long ago that he sat on America’s hottest seat.
This was late in the 2021-22 season, Hoiberg’s third in Lincoln. His Cornhuskers had finished in 14th place in the Big Ten during his first two years, and they were stumbling towards a 13th-place finish. As speculation mounted about Hoiberg’s future, Nebraska’s then-athletic director, Trev Alberts, announced that Hoiberg would stay on the job — but only on the condition that he take a $250,000 pay cut, forfeit a $500,000 retention bonus and, most ominously, agree to reduce his buyout from $18.5 million to $11 million if the school fired him a year later.
“Over the past few weeks, I have had several productive meetings with Coach Hoiberg, and we agree the results of our team are not acceptable,” Alberts said in a statement. “No one is more disappointed or frustrated than Fred Hoiberg. I have known Fred for a long time and watched him build and lead successful teams.”
That decision may look great now given that Nebraska is having a season for the ages, but at the time it seemed like a risky bet. When I brought it up to Hoiberg during a phone call this week, he told me that he never really thought he was in danger of losing his job. He also said he took the pay cut so he wouldn’t have to let some assistants go. “We took over one of the largest rebuilds in the history of the power five conferences,” Hoiberg said. “I was confident I could turn things around. I think the biggest thing is, do you feel you have the right fit for your program? I’m thankful that our administration that they thought that I was the guy, ultimately, that could get it turned around. I hope I’m here a long time.”
This history might serve as a cautionary tale for restless fan bases and itchy athletic directors who think that a change in coach will reverse their program’s fortunes. That includes the fans at Providence who have made known their displeasure with their coach, Kim English, as the Friars have sunk to the basement of the Big East standings. Things hit rock bottom last Saturday when Providence gave up a 21-point second-half lead at home to Georgetown, which happens to be coached by former Providence coach Ed Cooley. PC fans have never forgiven Cooley for leaving three years ago, so the loss was as bad as it could be for a coach who was already losing his fan base.
There’s no doubt the Friars have been disappointing, but English is only in his third season there. Is it really smart or fair to make a coaching move? Does the Nebraska example not demonstarate the value of patience and temperance, and the upside of giving a coach a chance to grow on the job and learn from his mistakes?
It was striking to see similar frustration directed at Louisville coach Pat Kelsey in the wake of the Cardinals’ 21-point drubbing at Duke on Monday. Some members of the Louisville media were suggesting on Twitter that the school should consider moving on. Which is wild considering Kelsey is in just his second year on the job, and that he took over a program that had won eight games the year before and guided the Cardinals to the NCAA Tournament last season. Oh, and did we mention that his lottery pick freshman point guard just returned from a back injury that cost him eight games?
Sure, there are plenty of examples of coaching changes that proved to be the right move. But I’m old enough to remember when Jay Wright was in jeopardy at Villanova following a pair of first-round upsets and an absence from the 2012 NCAA Tournament. Clemson’s Brad Brownell spent multiple seasons on everyone’s “hot-seat” lists, and he’s now the longest tenured coach in the ACC. Matt Painter faced much the same heat after Purdue was bounced in the first round of the 2023 tournament as a No. 1 seed.
If you want to go back further into history, the classic examples are Mike Krzyewski’s early years at Duke and Tom Izzo’s initial struggles at Michigan State. Both of those fan bases turned against the coaches when the early losses piled up, but the administration stuck by them. Things turned out okay.
Coaches understand that being criticized by fans and cut loose by AD’s is part of the job. As Hyman Roth put it so eloquently, this is the business they’ve chosen. But Hoiberg’s rocky road to glory at Nebraska is a helpful reminder that sometimes the best move is no move at all, and that a well-timed vote of confidence can change a program’s fortunes for the better.
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OTHER HOOP THOUGHTS
• Quick, everyone. Who’s alone in first place in the SEC? If you said Texas A&M (without looking it up), you’re in a minority. The Aggies are 6-1 in league play (16-4 overall) heading into Saturday’s game at Georgia. And it’s a legit 6-1. They have road wins over Auburn and Texas, and their lone league loss came in double overtime at Tennessee. That’s quite a feat for first-year coach Bucky McMillan, who had to totally remake the roster after Buzz Williams left for Maryland. While Williams is coaching the Terps to one of their worst-ever seasons, McMillan, who was coaching in high school before ascending to Samford six years ago, has wildly succeeded in bringing his fast-paced, three-happy version of “Bucky Ball” to College Station. We’ll see how long it lasts, but this looks very much like a NCAA Tournament team. Pretty good for a squad that was picked to finish 10th in the SEC in the preseason.
• Speaking of the Vols, they have been playing much better of late largely due to the improved play of ballyhooed freshman Nate Ament. The 6-foot-10 wing has been up and down this season and has struggled at times with physical play. But over his last five games, Ament is averaging 21.0 points on 45.8 percent shooting (38.9 from three) to go along with 5.8 rebounds and 2.2 assists. His offensive contributions are critical because while this is a typically fierce Rick Barnes defensive team, the Vols struggle to score at times.
• Another important player who has been drastically improved of late is UCLA point guard Donovan Dent. Just a few weeks ago, his three-point shooting had dipped from 40.9 percent last season at New Mexico to 9.0 percent this season. That is not a typo. It was also predictable that after playing for three years in an up-tempo system that Dent would struggle under Mick Cronin’s meat grinder. In the four games since Dent went scoreless over 30 minutes in a win at Penn State on Jan. 14, he has averaged 16.0 points and 7.3 assists to just 1.5 turnovers while shootng 45.5 percent from three. One of those games was a 23-points, 13-assist, 2-turnover masterpiece in the win over Purdue — and don’t think for a second that Dent wasn’t amped up for the challenge of going up against Braden Smith.
Not coincidentally, this has helped vault UCLA into a tie for fifth in the Big Ten heading into Saturday’s home game against Indiana. And they’ve done all this without starting guard Skyy Clark, the 6-foot-3 senior who has missed the last seven games with a hamstring injury. Clark is close to returning, but 6-foot-4 sophomore Trent Perry has played so well in Clark’s place that I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cronin bring Clark off the bench, at least at the start. Either way, UCLA is well-situated for a strong second half if the Bruins can stay healthy.
• As for Purdue, the consensus preseason No. 1 team has now lost three in a row, including Tuesday’s 72-67 loss at Indiana. The problem here is not hard to diagnose: Purdue is a very mediocre defensive team. Since the start of 2026, they are ranked No. 74 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per BartTorvik. Matt Painter is in a bind that is all too familiar to coaches, and especially to Purdue fans over the years. Some of his best offensive players are lousy defenders (Fletcher Loyer, Oscar Cluff), and some of his better defenders can’t score (L.J. Cox). I know Trey Kaufman-Renn has been battling injuries, but he has not been playing like the All-American that some (including me) projected him to be.
Here’s something else no one seems to be saying about this team: Omer Mayer has been a bust, at least for this season. The 6-foot-4 freshman from Israel was stellar last summer at the FIBA U19 World Cup and FIBA U20 EuroBasket. That was a big reason why I ranked the Boilermakers No. 1 in the preseason, despite questions as to whether a ball-dominant guard like Meyer could succeed alongside Smith. Well, the skeptics were right and I was wrong because Meyer has been a non-factor this season. He certainly won’t earn minutes with his defense.
There is still plenty of time for Purdue to figure this out, and with Painter calling the shots I have no doubt the team will get better. But it has been a rough few weeks for this squad, and the schedule is not going to get any easier.
• I saw some chatter online criticizing Rutgers coach Steve Pikiell’s decision not to foul Michigan State while up by three points on the Spartans’ final possession on Tuesday. As many of you know, I’m a big foul-up-three guy, but the data shows clearly that the strategy works best when it happens with under five seconds to play. In this case, there were 11.1 seconds on the clock when Divine Ugochukwu hit the tying three-pointer for the Spartans. Rutgers had one more possession and couldn’t convert, and then lost the game in overtime. That’s a hard way to lose, but it wasn’t because Pikiell’s strategy was bad late in regulation.
• The biggest issue Texas Tech has faced this season is a lack of depth, but that problem is getting better. Sopomore forward Josiah Moseley, a transfer from Villanova, made his season debut on Monday in the Red Raiders’ home win over Houston. Moseley had 6 points and 6 rebounds in 10 minutes. And it looks like 6-foot-11 sophomore forward Luke Bamgboye is close to making his return after missing the last nine games with a knee injury. Bamgboye averaged 2.14 blocks at VCU last season and was on the Atlantic-10’s All-Defense team. Bamgboye was upgraded to questionable for Monday’s game, and while he didn’t play against the Cougars, there’s a good chance he could be in action for Texas Tech’s game Saturday at UCF. That would give him a full game under his belt before the big one Monday at home against Kansas.
• Gonzaga is also looking to get a big piece back this weekend in 6-foot-9 senior forward Graham Ike, who missed the last three games with an ankle injury. That comes not a moment too soon, given that the Zags are hosting Saint Mary’s Saturday night in The Kennel. Ike’s return is especially critical given that his frontcourtmate, 6-foot-10 junior forward Braden Huff, is out for at least a few more weeks with a knee injury. The Zags really miss Huff’s scoring ability, but in many ways they are a better defensive team without him. So they’ll have to iron that out if and when he comes back, but in the meantime having Ike back will drastically increase their chances of winning this pivotal game.
• Is Aleksas Bieliauskas destined to be the ultimate one-hit wonder? Wisconsin’s 6-foot-10 freshman from Lithuania was the hero of the Jan. 10 win at Michigan, erupting for 17 points on 5 of 10 three-point shooting. It was just his second double-figure outing of the season, and he has scored a total of 14 points in the five games since.
• San Diego State has very quietly played its way back to the top of the Mountain West standings. The Aztecs’ only loss came by one point at Grand Canyon. As usual, they are winning with what my buddy Clark Kellogg calls “saran wrap defense,” but it also helps that Reese Dixon-Waters has returned to form. The 6-foot-5 senior guard, who missed all of last season due to a foot injury, was understandably slow out of the gate, but in league games he has been steady while averaging 11.5 points (on 37.5 percent three-point shooting) and 4.6 rebounds per game. They have a big game coming up on Saturday at Utah State, but unfortunately the Aztecs will be without their top big man Magoon Gwath, who will miss his fourth straight game with a hip injury.
• Stop me if you’ve heard this before: It’s almost February, and Liberty is one of the top mid-major teams in the country. Once again, Ritchie McKay is putting his tortoise-beats-the-hare formula to work to perfection. Liberty is alone atop the Conference USA standings with a 10-0 record (18-3 overall). The Flames are No. 86 on KenPom. This would be McKay’s seventh conference regular season title in the last eight seasons.
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