So here we are, the last Saturday in January. And appropriately enough, your boy needs a rebound. I finally had a bit of a clunker last week (thank goodness Ole Miss saved me from an ohfer), but you know what I like to say in these situations: I spy a swinging pendulum!
So let’s swing into the weekend with another quintet of picks against the spread. The headliner is one we’ve been waiting for ever since the season tipped off – Tennessee at Auburn. It would be a bummer if Johni Broome doesn’t play (I don’t think he will, but he’s officially listed as questionable), but it will still be a terrific atmosphere at Auburn Arena. And with no football games on today for the first time in a long time, you might as well kick back and enjoy another awesome full slate of college hoops.
Texas A&M at Texas
Seth’s Analysis
The Aggies’ 63-62 win at Ole Miss Wednesday night was the very definition of a theft. They closed with an 11-2 run and did not lead until 6-foot-4 senior guard Manny Obaseki hit a three-pointer with 13 seconds remaining. Still, you have to give credit to the Aggies for even being in that position despite a subpar game from senior guard Wade Taylor IV, who had just four points (0 for 6 three-point shooting) in his second game back after he missed the previous three with an undisclosed injury. Texas A&M remains the best offensive rebounding team in the country (the Aggies pounded the Rebels on the boards 48-31), and I think their mental and physical toughness will be too much for Texas, which ranks ninth in the SEC in defensive rebound percentage, 11th in defensive efficiency and 14th in blocks percentage, per KenPom. The Longhorns need another big game from 6-foot-7 senior forward Arthur Kaluma, who has had double doubles in his last two games, including a 14-point 12-rebound effort in Tuesday’s home win over Missouri. But the Aggies bring a lot of size and tenacity to the frontcourt, which was on full display when they thumped the Longhorns by 20 on Jan. 4 in College Station.
Duke at Wake Forest
Seth’s Analysis
Wake Forest has won six in a row and eight of its last nine. But the Demon Deacons still only have one Quad 1 win (by two points at home over Michigan). This would be a doozy of a second. They may be getting Duke at a fortuitous time as the Blue Devils are without their best defender, 6-foot-9 junior forward Maliq Brown, who has missed the last two games with a sprained knee and is still a long way from returning. Of course, the Blue Devils still have plenty of good players, including that Cooper whats-his-name, but the Deacons have a high scoring threat of their own in senior guard Hunter Sallis, who had 14 points in Tuesday’s home win over North Carolina after scoring 20 or more in each of his previous seven games. The Deacs rank 350th in the country in three-point percentage (28.1) so they will have to out-perform that in order to have a chance in this one. And yes, I’m saying they have a chance, at least to keep their losing margin to single digits.
Ole Miss at Missouri
Seth’s Analysis
Both these teams are licking their wounds after suffering tough losses Wednesday night. The Rebels had Texas A&M on the verge of defeat until they fell apart in the last few minutes. That was their second straight close defeat (the previous one was by three points in overtime at Mississippi State) and came about partly because the Rebels only attempted four three throws (making three). That should never happen in a home game. Ole Miss ranks third in the country in turnover percentage, per KenPom, but that will be tested against Missouri’s unrelenting fullcourt pressure. The Tigers should be extra motivated after losing 61-53 at Texas on Wednesday. They shot 4 of 22 from three against the Longhorns, but they are making 36.9 percent on the season, and like most every team in the country they shoot better at home. I also like that Missouri ranks second in the country in offensive free throw rate. The Tigers aren’t quite a desperate home team, but they are a motivated one and I think that will be enough.
Houston at Kansas
Seth’s Analysis
This is a game where the Jayhawks will really miss K.J. Adams, the rugged 6-foot-7 senior forward who hasn’t played since injuring his shoulder in a loss at Iowa State on Jan. 15. The Jayhawks have won two straight since then, including Wednesdays’ 74-61 win at TCU during which they trailed by 14 points in the first half. Bill Self’s decision to enter 6-foot-9 freshman forward Flory Bidunga into the starting lineup in Adams’ place has given his team a stronger complement to Hunter Dickinson in the paint. Houston comes into this game having won 11 straight games by an average margin of 23.4 points, but the Cougars still do not have a Quad 1 win. (Kansas has four.) I guess I can see the logic in installing Houston as the favorite, but the chance to pick Kansas as a home underdog is as rare as one of those rare things that’s really rare. So I’m gonna Rock Chalk this one.
Tennessee at Auburn
Seth’s Analysis
The big question for this game is the status of Auburn senior forward Johni Broome. The SEC has a new policy in place this season requiring teams to give a public injury report. Broome, who hasn’t played since spraining his ankle in a win at South Carolina on Jan. 11, has been listed as “questionable,” I am highly skeptical Broome is going to play, but I’m also not sure how much it matters. The Tigers have have won two straight without him, although they did need 24 points from freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford to win at Georgia, 70-68, last Saturday. Auburn did not have a game midweek, which gave Bruce Pearl extra time to prepare for the Vols. (I’m sure the fact that Tennessee fired Pearl in 2011 did not even enter his mind.) The best news for Tennessee is that the team’s leading scorer, North Florida transfer Chaz Lanier, appears to have broken out of his mini slump. He has averaged 20.0 points on 50 percent three-point shooting over his last two games after averaging 8.3 on 16.7 percent over his previous three. Taking away his long-range looks is the top priority for Auburn, which has the personnel to overwhelm the Vols with speed, size and strength that very few teams have. The Jungle is going to be rocking, and Broome or no Broome, the Tigers won’t want to let their rabid fans down.
Seth’s Stats:
Last week: 1-4
Season: 35-29-1
