Buy, Sell or Hold? The Hoop Thoughts College Basketball Stock Report Has the Answers

As you read through these ratings, please keep in mind the counterintuitive logic of the HTSR. If a team is winning a lot and riding high, that means its stock price is likely to be artificially inflated, which would make me more inclined to recommend a Sell. If a team has been stumbling of late, perhaps its stock is undervalued, which means now is a good time to scoop it up. Thus, just because I rate Team A a Buy and Team B a Sell doesn’t mean I think A > B. If you want to know how I order the teams in that fashion, be sure to check out my weekly Top 25.

This year, I have assigned ratings to 50 teams, which I will dispense in two parts. CLICK HERE FOR PART TWO. Happy shopping, Hoopheads, and be sure to take these ratings the bank.

Alabama (12-2, No. 5 AP, No. 9 NET)

HTSR Rating: BUY

We didn’t need to see the Crimson Tide wallop previously undefeated Oklahoma by 28 points to know they’re really good. But man, they’re really good. Alabama lost super senior guard Latrell Wrightsell, a returning starter and its best three-point shooter, to a season-ending Achilles injury on Nov. 30. Yet, Nate Oats is continuing to deploy a ten-man rotation full of tenacious, highly-skilled athletes. Foremost among them is senior guard Mark Sears, who has shaken off his early doldrums and returned to his All-American form. Alabama still has plenty of room to grow as well, specifically when senior guard Chris Youngblood, a 6-foot-4 senior transfer from South Florida who missed the first nine games while recovering from ankle surgery, gets more into the flow.

Arizona (8-5, No. 16 NET)

HTSR Rating: SELL

The Wildcats picked up a badly needed win at Cincinnati on Saturday, but only after blowing a 17-point second-half lead. I’ve been writing about Caleb Love’s shooting slump all season, but when you’re 13 games in and still only making 31.3 percent from three, that’s not a slump, that’s who you are. Arizona is also operating under much less margin for error now that 7-foot-2 sophomore forward Motiejus Krivas is out for the season. Freshman forward Carter Bryant is getting more minutes in Krivas’ absence (he had a career-high 14 points in the win over the Bearcats), but this is Arizona’s first season in the Big 12 and I don’t think this team is built for the long haul.

Arkansas (11-3, No. 23 AP, No. 41 NET)

HTSR Rating: HOLD

The Razorbacks got embarrassed in Knoxville on Saturday, but if we apply the aforementioned counterintuitive logic of the HTSR, then that means the stock is a better bet because it has been reduced in value. Arkansas’ problem isn’t a lack of talent, it’s a lack of experience, both overall and with each other. Four of the Razorbacks’ top six scorers are freshmen and sophomores. Their most experienced guard, FAU transfer Johnell Davis, has been ineffective thus far while battling a wrist injury and a recent illness. He went scoreless in 25 minutes against the Vols. As Davis gets more comfortable and the younger players grow up, the Razorbacks will steal a couple of good wins in the SEC.

Auburn (13-1, No. 2 AP, No. 1 NET)

HTSR Rating: BUY

What’s most impressive about Auburn isn’t that it has been arguably the best team in the country (the Tigers are ranked No. 1 in all the metrics), it’s that it has done so with just one player, freshman point guard Tahaad Pettiford, who was a top-50 recruit coming out of high school. The Tigers’ humble beginning has empowered them to maintain their edge. Johni Broome spent his first two years at Morehead State. Chad Baker-Mazara played in junior college. Denver Jones transferred from FIU two years ago. And right on down the line. And for a team that’s as fast, physical and aggressive as Auburn is, to rank No. 2 in the country in turnover percentage per KenPom seems borderline unfair.

Baylor (8-4, No. 25 AP, No. 24 NET)

HTSR Rating: HOLD

I’d lean towards selling Baylor, but I don’t think its stock price is that high. Which is not to say that this is a bad team. All four of the Bears’ losses were to really good teams – at Gonzaga, Tennessee on a neutral court, at UConn and at Iowa State. The problem is that their best win was in double overtime over St. John’s in The Bahamas. As usual, Baylor has plenty of dynamic offensive weapons, but the defense has a long way to go. The Bears rank 52^nd on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency and they’re 350^th nationally in three-point defense. They allowed Iowa State to shoot 49 percent (48 percent from three) during Saturday’s 74-55 loss in Ames, which made it impossible to overcome freshman guard V.J. Edgecombe’s disastrous 1-for-9 shooting. Baylor will win most of the games it should but I’m not convinced it will win many it shouldn’t.

BYU (10-3, No. 48 NET)

HTSR Rating: SELL

The Cougars still don’t have any top 50 wins and I sense their glamour is ahead of their reality. Yes, BYU has a sterling freshman duo in 6-foot-9 point guard Egor Demin and 6-foot-9 forward Kanon Catchings, but the Cougars lack in toughness areas like defense, offensive rebounding and free throw rate. That was exposed during Saturday’s 86-55 loss at Houston. A lot of visiting teams are going to lose in the Fertitta Center, but the fact that BYU wasn’t even competitive tells me that there are plenty more losses to come in the Big 12. 

Cincinnati (10-3, No. 32 NET)

HTSR Rating: SELL

I was a believer in the Bearcats earlier in the season and especially after they edged Xavier in the Crosstown Shootout. But they’ve now lost the three most challenging games they’ve played (at Villanova, at Kansas State and home to Arizona). The schedule will not get easier with Baylor and Kansas up next. As usual, the Bearcats compete hard and excel on defense (No. 6 on KenPom in adjusted efficiency) but they are also, as usual, having a hard time scoring. Their outside shooting is mediocre but they’re also ranked 342^nd in offensive free throw rate and 348^th in free throw percentage (63.5). On Saturday, Arizona outscored Cincinnati 21-12 from the foul line, which should never happen at home. 

Clemson (12-3, No. 37 NET)

HTSR Rating: BUY

I’m buying the Tigers for several reasons. First, like almost all of Brad Brownell’s teams, they are solid defensively. Jaeden Zackery, the 6-foot-1 senior transfer from Boston College, isn’t as skilled as Joe Girard was offensively, but he is much tougher at the defensive end. Clemson has a monster rebounder in 6-foot-8 senior forward Ian Schieffelin and good overall size. Mostly, I think the Tigers will benefit from the mediocrity of the ACC. Clemson beat Kentucky on Dec. 3 to climb to No. 16 in the AP poll, but overtime losses to Memphis and South Carolina knocked it out of the rankings. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tigers string together a bunch of wins and climb back into the Top 25 at some point.

Creighton (9-6, No. 61 NET)

HTSR Rating: SELL

The Bluejays’ prospects depended heavily on the arrival of Pop Isaacs, a 6-foot-2 point guard who transferred from Texas Tech. Isaacs was terrific during the first month, topped by his 27-point, five-rebound, four-assist masterpiece during the Dec. 4 win over Kansas. Alas, three days later, the school announced that Isaacs would have to undergo season-ending hip surgery. The Bluejays have since lost road games to Alabama and Georgetown and although they knocked off Villanova and St. John’s at home the next two games, it’s clear to me that the ceiling here is rather low.

Dayton (10-4, No. 54 NET)

HTSR Rating: SELL

I might have been inclined to rate Dayton a Buy given that just five of the Atlantic 10’s 15 teams are in the top 100 of the NET and Dayton is the only team the top 50. But the Flyers have now lost two of their last three games, including Saturday’s 82-62 loss at George Washington. The Flyers have some good wins over Northwestern (home), UConn (neutral) and Marquette (home), so they still have some leeway with respect to the NCAA Tournament. But now they have a lot less and only two more Quad 1 opportunities the rest of the season. It’s far more likely there are more bad losses than good wins ahead for this team.

Duke (12-2, No. 4 AP, No. 3 NET)

HTSR Rating: BUY

Cooper Flagg came into college with an enormous amount of hype, yet somehow he has lived up to all of it and then some. The 6-foot-9 freshman forward leads the Blue Devils in points, rebounds, assists and blocks and he is second in steals by a very small margin. That, however, is only part of why I see the Blue Devils as a national title contender. Yes, Jon Scheyer brought in an elite freshman class, but he also used the transfer portal wisely to get older, stronger and tougher. Maliq Brown, the 6-foot-8 junior from Syracuse, is a versatile and invaluable defender and Tulane transfer Sion James, a 6-foot-5 super senior, has helped shore up Duke’s deficiencies at point guard despite having previously played power forward. Duke ranks third in adjusted defensive efficiency and is the second-tallest team in the country, per KenPom. Those are traits that come in very handy in March.

Florida (13-1, No. 6 AP, No. 8 NET)

HTSR Rating: HOLD

I was skeptical of the Gators’ 13-0 start because they didn’t have any signature wins (aside from a six-point win over a far-from-vintage North Carolina). But you can’t help but be impressed by how well Florida played even while losing 106-100 at Kentucky on Saturday. There aren’t many teams that can run and score with the Wildcats in Rupp while also rebounding 41.4 percent of its misses (No. 4 nationally per KenPom). There are also not many teams who have three talented and tough senior guards like Florida has in Will Richard, Alijah Martin and Walter Clayton. The two big questions with Florida are a) how will it hold up over time in this conference and b) whether the ongoing Title IX investigation of coach Todd Golden will impact his ability to continue coaching.

Georgetown (12-2, No. 73 NET)

HTSR Rating: BUY

The Ed Cooley Reclamation Project is way ahead of schedule in D.C. During the last three seasons, the Hoyas won a total of four Big East games. Now they’re 3-0 with three monster games coming up against Marquette (away), UConn (home) and St. John’s (away). If Georgetown can somehow squeak out a win during that stretch, it could be headed for a strong middle-of-the-pack finish in a soft Big East conference. Harvard transfer Malik Mack has been a terrific addition (13.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists per game), but the real revelation has been 6-foot-10 freshman forward Thomas Sorber, who was ranked No. 40 in the RSCI but has played his way into the first round of the NBA draft by averaging 15.4 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game.

Georgia (12-2, No. 36 NET)

HTSR Rating: SELL

This is a pretty easy call given that the Bulldogs amassed their gaudy record against a nonconference schedule that is ranked No. 242 in the NET. The fact that Georgia’s KenPom ranking (No. 47) is so much lower than its NET ranking is a very loud signal as to where this stock is headed. In the Bulldogs’ best chance for a quality win, they were outmatched by Marquette, 80-69, on a neutral court. Yes, there are some good pieces here, primarily 6-foot-11 freshman forward Asa Newell, but with games coming up the next two weeks against Kentucky, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Auburn, Georgia’s stock is headed for a significant correction.

Gonzaga (12-4, No. 19 AP, No. 7 NET)

HTSR Rating: BUY

This is the time of year when Gonzaga slides off the national radar, but I’ve seen enough to believe this team has the goods. The fact that the Zags have lost four games (all to good teams – West Virginia, Kentucky, UConn, UCLA) makes them an even better purchase. Two of those losses were in overtime and the loss to UCLA came after Gonzaga’s second leading scorer, Khalif Battle, was ejected for a flagrant 2 foul with about four minutes to play in the first half. Battle and fellow transfer Michael Ajayi will continue to get more comfortable in their new homes and I love the way 6-foot-9 senior forward Graham Ike has grown into a confident, strong post finisher and rebounder. Plus, two of Gonzaga’s traditional challengers in the West Coast Conference, Saint Mary’s and San Francisco, are not as competitive as they’ve been in the recent past.

Houston (10-3, No. 14 AP, No. 4 NET)

HTSR Rating: BUY

Here’s another team I’ve been ranking lower than my fellow AP voters due to a lack of signature wins. BYU isn’t exactly a Final Four favorite, but it’s a pretty good team and Houston made the Cougars look like a high school team during Saturday’s 86-55 win. That was an emphatic reminder that even without an All-American on the roster, Houston’s culture is still elite. Oklahoma transfer Milos Uzan will never fully replace Jamal Shead at point guard, but he is getting more confident every game and his assist-to-turnover ratio is outstanding. (He had 8 assists and 0 turnovers against BYU.) And 6-foot-8 senior forward Ja’Vier Francis seems to have recovered from the groin strain that hobbled him the first few weeks. With Baylor and Kansas not looking as prominent as they’ve been in the past, the Big 12 is coming down to a race between Houston and Iowa State.

Illinois (10-3, No. 5 NET)

HTSR Rating: BUY

It might seem risky to buy Illinois given that it just pulled off a huge stock-boosting win at Oregon. But I’ve been consistently ranking the Illini ahead of my fellow AP voters and I think they’ve got more growing to do, especially considering their top three scorers are freshmen. Point guard Kasparas Jakucionis, the Lithuanian import, is lottery pick good and he has been getting more support lately from veteran transfers like 6-foot-2 junior guard Kylan Boswell (who came from Arizona), 6-foot-7 junior Tre White (Louisville) and 6-foot-9 senior forward Ben Humrichous (Evansville). Throw in Brad Underwood’s embrace of three-point-heavy analytics and you have the makings of a squad that is both talented and entertaining.

Indiana (12-3, No. 64 NET)

HTSR Rating: SELL

The Hoosiers’ record is very good, but I fear things are about to get ugly in Bloomington. The Hoosiers earned their best win of the season on Sunday at Penn State, but they did so without 6-foot-9 senior forward Malik Reneau, who injured his knee during the first minute of Thursday’s home win over Rutgers. Perhaps Sunday’s win will jump start this group, but it’s still hard to unsee those embarrassing losses to Louisville, Gonzaga and Nebraska. The much ballyhooed portal additions of 6-foot-2 sophomore guard Myles Rice (Washington State) and 7-foot senior center Oumar Ballo (Arizona) have been good at times but undependable. Ditto for 6-foot-8 sophomore forward Mackenzie Mgbako, who is great one game and invisible the next. The Hoosier’ three-point shooting has improved somewhat, but they’re still deficient in that department. The Big Ten may not have any great teams, but it has a lot of really good ones and I’m not convinced Indiana is one of them.

Iowa (10-4, No. 56 NET)

HTSR Rating: SELL

Unfortunately, it’s the same old story in Iowa City: The Hawkeyes score a lot, but they can’t keep anyone else from scoring. That was all too clear Friday night when they surrendered 116 points to Wisconsin (Wisconsin!) to drop to 1-2 in the Big Ten. And in the one conference win it does have, Iowa needed a 30-foot heave from junior guard Josh Dix to beat Northwestern at the buzzer. Senior guard Payton Sandfort is a dangerous bucket getter and sophomore forward Owen Freeman has been an effective paint scorer, but that’s not enough to overcome the defensive deficiencies against a rugged Big Ten schedule.

Iowa State (12-1, No. 3 AP, No. 6 NET)

HTSR Rating: BUY

I’m still not sure people around the country appreciate what T.J. Otzelberger has done in Ames. The season before he took over, the Cyclones won all of two games and went 0-18 in the Big 12. (Although to be fair, that was the post-Covid season when lots of things were going haywire.) The Cyclones are great on defense as always (No. 18 on in adjusted efficiency) but they are third in offensive efficiency and have a bevy of perimeter threats who can get their own buckets late in the shot clock – a skill that is at a premium in March. And I love the addition of Glue Guy Josh Jefferson, a 6-foot-8 junior transfer from Saint Mary’s who is averaging 11.2 points, 8.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists.

Kansas (10-3, No. 7 AP, No. 21 NET)

HTSR Rating: HOLD

By the logic of the HTSR, Kansas’ stock was sunk considerably by that loss at home to West Virginia last Tuesday. Conventional wisdom says this blue blood program with its Hall of Fame coach is bound to take some major steps forward. So Buy, right? Not so fast. Yes, the Jayhawks will improve, but I’m not sure their long-term problems are fixable. Their three-man veteran nucleus includes two non-shooters in senior point guard Dajuan Harris and senior forward K.J. Adams and a 7-foot-2 senior center in Hunter Dickinson who looks lost at times in the offense. Senior guard Zeke Mayo, a transfer from South Dakota State, has been solid for the most part, but a major reason Kansas was ranked No. 1 in the preseason was because it signed Wisconsin guard A.J. Storr out of the portal. He has been a dud, so much so that Bill Self only played Storr 15 minutes in the loss to the Mountaineers. There are just too many good teams in the Big 12 to make me think the Jayhawks are headed for their customary perch atop the league standings.

Kentucky (12-2, No. 10 AP, No. 11 NET)

HTSR Rating: HOLD

I could not be more impressed with the way Mark Pope has gotten this team to play as well as it has with a completely new roster. The Wildcats put their speed, cohesion and shot making on vivid display during Saturday’s 106-100 win over Florida. But I also have a hard time shaking that 20-point loss to Ohio State in Madison Square Garden when they shot 4 for 22 from three. Yes, bad games can happen, but that performance served notice that this team is a bit of a front runner. They love the three but they don’t defend very well (No. 91 in adjust efficiency) and that is a tough template to take into this ridiculously strong conference. The Wildcats’ schedule is pretty favorable in the next couple of weeks heading into their Jan. 28 date at Tennessee. If Kentucky is going to maximize its potential, it is going to have to figure out to beat good teams when it’s not shooting well from three.

Louisville (10-5, No. 40 NET)

HTSR Rating: HOLD

I give enormous credit to Pat Kelsey for reversing Louisville’s fortunes so quickly despite a slew of injuries. A lack of depth is especially problematic given that Kelsey has always liked to give a lot of guys heavy minutes and play as fast as he can. The Cardinals have significant wins over Indiana, West Virginia and North Carolina. Chucky Hepburn, the 6-foot-2 senior transfer from Wisconsin, has been as valuable to this team as any player in America. Given how much Louisville has exceeded expectations, rating this stock a Hold after all that success is a compliment. I’m not yet convinced that the Cardinals are going to the NCAA Tournament, but just the fact that is is a distinct possibility at this point in the season says a lot about where this program is headed.

Marquette (13-2, No. 8 AP, No. 10 NET)

HTSR Rating: BUY

The biggest question the Golden Eagles faced coming into the season was how well Kam Jones would replace Tyler Kolek at point guard. If anything, you could argue he has upgraded the position. Jones is having a National Player of the Year caliber season while averaging 20.3 points, 6.5 assists (to just 1.6 turnovers) and 5.0 rebounds. During Marquette’s signature win over Purdue on Nov. 19, Jones put up the school’s first triple double (17 points, 13 rebounds, 10 assists) since Dwyane Wade. Best of all, he has put up those gaudy numbers while helping his team win. Marquette has numerous other players who can score and defend with versatility and it ranks second in the nation in turnover percentage. Throw in a soft Big East and it’s easy to imagine this team continuing its climb.

Marquette’s Shaka Smart Doesn’t Use the Transfer Portal. He’s Still Winning.

The Golden Eagles’ win over Purdue Tuesday night was another victory for continuity in an age of change

Maryland (11-4, No. 18 NET)

HTSR Rating: HOLD

The Terps have have a good record, but their non-conference strength of schedule is ranked 316^th in the NET. That’s why they have been slow to enter the national rankings despite some strong metrics. Maryland justified the voters’ skepticism by losing at Washington and Oregon. Now they have UCLA coming to College Park later this week. Freshman forward Derek Queen has exceeded his considerable hype and has been complemented well by 6-foot-9 senior forward Julian Reese, but this team encounters a few too many scoring droughts. I like Maryland’s potential, but Kevin Willard has some things to figure out, primarily how he can get more production out of his bench.