Hoop Thoughts Stock Report, Part Two: Which Teams Should You Buy, Sell or Hold?

PART 1 OF THE STOCK REPORT

The First 25 Teams in Seth's Stock Report: Alabama through Maryland

Which stocks are worth buying as conference play gets into full swing?

Memphis (12-3, No. 34 NET)

HTSR Rating: Buy

Penny Hardaway promised his program’s culture would be new and improved and so far the Tigers have passed their two biggest cultural tests. They suffered a couple of bad losses to Arkansas State and Mississippi State at home, but in both cases they bounced back to win at Clemson and over Ole Miss at home by 17 points. Throw in the quality wins over UConn and Michigan State and Maui and the overall weakness of the AAC, and Memphis should have a smooth road to a high seed in the NCAA Tournament. Hardaway only brought back one player from last year’s squad, but his transfers have worked out beautifully and this is the fifth-oldest team in the country.

Michigan (12-3, No. 14 NET)

HTSR: Buy

The Wolverines’ three losses came by a total of five points, so even if they had lost at UCLA Tuesday night instead of winning by 19 points, I probably would have rated them a Buy. The job that Dusty May has done in Ann Arbor has a striking similarity to what Mark Pope is doing in Lexington, only instead of launching a ton of three-pointers the Wolverines are slicing people up with their highly-skilled duo of seven footer transfers, Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf. The guards have been slower to jell, which is why the Wolverines rank 335^th nationally in turnover percentage. But that has been pretty much their only major flaw, and it’s something that is going to get better as the weeks go by.

Michigan State (12-2, No. 16 AP, No. 19 NET)

HTSR Rating: Buy

The Spartans are shooting 28.0 percent from three on the season, which ranks 354^th in the country. But they shot 22.4 percent in their first eight games but have made 35.5 percent over the last six. That includes a 3-for-18 performance at Ohio State last Friday, which the Spartans still found a way to win. This team doesn’t have an obvious late clock bucket getter like it did last season with Tyson Walker, but it is an excellent defensive team (No. 11 in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom) with terrific size and a very deep bench. And I love the emergence of 6-foot-11 sophomore Xavier Booker as a capable reserve whose versatility is invaluable at both ends.

Mississippi State  (11-1, No. 14 AP, No. 13 NET)

HTSR Rating: Buy

Chris Jans’ teams have typically relied on physical defense and a steady tempo, but this is the best offensive team he has ever coached. Sophomore guard Josh Hubbard is a dynamic scorer who might be a household name if he were playing for a more high-profile school. He’ll get a lot more eyeballs on him during SEC play. The Bulldogs posted decisive wins over Pittsburgh (home) and Memphis (road), and as you can see by their NET rating, the metrics love them. (They’re also ninth on KPI and 12^th in Wins Above Bubble.) It’s only a matter of time until Mississippi State scores a marquee win that gets people talking.

Missouri (12-3, No. 44 NET)

HTSR Rating: Hold

The Tigers have made a remarkable improvement over last year and that win over Kansas had to feel great. If the SEC were just good, I might take a flyer and Buy this stock. But I think Mizzou is going to have a tough time maintaining momentum. The things I like best about this team are its speed, depth and aggressiveness. Dennis Gates does a great job deploying a deep bench so he can maximize pressure and create offensive opportunities in transition. The question is whether that style will hold up against stronger teams in the SEC that can take care of the ball. If the Tigers are forced to score in their halfcourt offense, they could have problems.

Nebraska (12-3, No. 33 NET)

HTSR Rating: Buy

Not only am I not dissuaded by the Huskers’ overtime loss at Iowa Tuesday night, I think that loss makes this an even better purchase because their stock price took a hit. If Nebraska loses again at Purdue on Sunday, I will still be convinced this is an NCAA Tournament team. Brice Williams, a 6-foot-7 senior, is an absolute bucket and I love the way Fred Hoiberg has revitalized Wisconsin transfer Connor Essegian, a 6-foot-4 junior. Hoiberg is known for being a deft offensive tactician, but this is by far the best defensive team he has coached in college. Nebraska won at Creighton by 11 points and convincingly beat Indiana and UCLA at home. During a season when the Big Ten has some good teams but no great ones, I think Nebraska has a chance to compete for a conference title.

North Carolina (10-6, No. 42 NET)

HTSR: Sell

The Tar Heels have won two straight since falling by 13 points at Louisville, but it’s hard to get excited about this team’s long-term prospects, even in a weak ACC. We knew UNC would have a hard time replacing Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram in the frontcourt, but it has still been stunning to see this program pushed around. Roy Williams’ teams used to routinely be among the nation’s leaders in offensive rebound percentage, but these Tar Heels currently rank 248^th in that category. The lack of inside presence at both ends has taken its toll on senior guard R.J. Davis, who was a consensus preseason All-American but is shooting just 26.8 percent from three (down from 39.8 percent last season). Much-ballyhooed freshman guard Ian Jackson has come on strong of late, but so far that hasn’t been enough to turn the Heels into a team that can make a run in March.

Ohio State  (10-5, No. 31 NET)

HTSR Rating: Sell

The Buckeyes have had some bad juju. Between an injury to senior guard Ques Glover, a suspension for sophomore forward Aaron Bradshaw (which has since been lifted) and the departure of senior guard Meechie Johnson for personal reasons, it has been hard for the Buckeyes to get into a proper rhythm. They also lack size and physicality. Bradshaw, a 7-foot-1 sophomore forward who transferred from Kentucky, and Duke transfer Sean Stewart, a 6-foot-9 sophomore forward, were supposed to shore that up, but neither has been effective. Bruce Thornton and John Mobley have been terrific in the backcourt, but this team doesn’t have much of a Plan B (or C or D) if it’s not making threes. That’s not going to work in a grinding, physical conference like the Big Ten.

Oklahoma (13-1, No. 17 AP, No. 47 NET)

HTSR Rating: Sell

When you see a gap this large between a team’s poll ranking and its NET ranking, that screams Sell. Porter Moser has done a remarkable job getting the Sooners to this point, but clearly this stock has nowhere to go but down. There’s no shame in losing at Alabama, of course, but the Sooners weren’t even competitive in the 107-79 loss last Saturday. Their best win came by one point over Michigan in Madison Square Garden on a crazy four-point play by freshman guard Jeremiah Fears. He has been fantastic all season and has been helped by being in a starting lineup beside four seniors, but I think Oklahoma’s time in the top 25 will soon come to an end.

Ole Miss (12-2, No. 23 AP, No. 29 NET)

HTSR Rating: Hold

Few coaches are as good as Chris Beard when it comes to finding transfers who can play for him. The Rebels might be a top 10 team if they had been able to pull off the win over Purdue on Nov. 29 in San Diego instead of losing by two. Their only other loss came by 17 points at Memphis, while their home win over Georgia looks even better after the Bulldogs upset Kentucky in Athens on Tuesday night. Ole Miss is respectable on both offense (No. 32 in efficiency) and defense (No. 28) and as is customary with Beard’s teams, the Bulldogs don’t beat themselves (No. 4 in turnover percentage). It’s also a deep, well-balanced team with five players averaging between 9 and 14 points per game.

Oregon (13-2, No. 15 AP, No. 20 NET)

HTSR: Hold

Aside from that miserable performance against Illinois, the Ducks have been solid. They were at their best while beating Texas A&M, San Diego State and Alabama to win the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas. Oregon is not going to scare anyone with its defense, but it can put up points with the best of them. Now that 7-foot senior center Nate Bittle is healthy, the Ducks have a legitimate post threat (and stretch five) as well as a defensive rebounder and rim protector. The Ducks’ only Big Ten road game so far was a hard-fought 68-60 win at USC. There are tougher tests coming up beginning this week at Ohio State and Penn State. Like just about every team in college basketball, Oregon might lose a couple game it shouldn’t lose, but all in all I think the Ducks will hold up well in their first Big Ten season.

Pittsburgh (12-3, No. 15 NET)

HTSR: Buy

The Panthers’ 29-point loss at Duke Tuesday night did nothing to dissuade me that this is an NCAA Tournament team. If that’s the threshold, then this stock is worth buying. Pitt is unranked and might remain so given the weakness of the ACC, but it is also ranked No. 16 in KPI and No. 20 in Wins Above Bubble. I love the backcourt of 6-foot-3 sophomore Jaland Lowe and 6-foot-3 senior Ishmael Leggett. All three of Pitt’s losses were in Quad 1, so if the Panthers can avoid any more bad setbacks, they should be in good shape on Selection Sunday.

Purdue (11-4, No. 20 AP, No. 27 NET)

HTSR: Sell

The Boilermakers were the preseason favorites to win the Big Ten and I sense an underlying assumption that because of this program’s culture and history, it’s only a matter of time before the surge arrives. I don’t think it will. Yes, the Boilermakers are a top-tier Big Ten team, and yes Braden Smith might end up being the league’s Player of the Year. But this team does not have the physicality and toughness we’re used to seeing. Purdue ranks 57^th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 258^th in defensive rebound percentage and 323^rd in blocks percentage. Smith and 6-foot-9 junior forward Trey Kaufmann-Renn have very high usage rates, which means if an opponent limits one or both of them, Purdue is pretty much out of options.

Rutgers (8-7, No. 90 NET)

HTSR: Sell

It’s hard enough to beat good teams when your two best players are freshmen. It’s even harder when you don’t get consistent support from their teammates. And it’s especially hard when one of those freshmen gets hit with a nasty flu virus just as conference play begins. That’s what has happened to Dylan Harper, who missed Rutgers’ game at Indiana last Thursday (the Scarlet Knights lost by 10) and then looked like a zombie while going scoreless in Monday’s home loss to Wisconsin. Rutgers has a pair of bad losses to Kennesaw State and Princeton on its resume and it still does not have any Quad 1 wins. Nor do I see many (any?) upcoming in the next several weeks. Harper and Ace Bailey are headed to the top of the NBA draft, but it’s highly doubtful that Rutgers is headed to the NCAA Tournament.

San Diego State (9-3, No. 35 NET)

HTSR: Buy

The Aztecs dropped out of the polls because they lost by one point at home to a very good Utah State team on Dec. 28. Otherwise, their resume is pretty crisp including an overtime win over Houston in Las Vegas. This looks like a typical San Diego State team (which is a compliment). The Aztecs rank 11^th in defensive efficiency and second in block percentage, although they are unusually sloppy with the ball (125^th in turnover percentage). Brian Dutcher has a couple of offensive sparks in sophomore guards Miles Byrd and B.J Davis and it looks like FAU transfer Nick Boyd, a 6-foot-3 senior guard, is finding his groove after a spotty start. If the Mountain West comes down to a race between the Aztecs and Utah State again, San Diego State’s D will be the difference.

St. John’s (13-3, No. 38 NET)

HTSR: Hold

Rick Pitino is a great coach, but he’s not a miracle worker. No matter how hard he huffs, no matter how hard he puffs, he will not turn the Red Storm into a good three-point shooting team. Even if they were merely bad, that would be an improvement. Alas, St. John’s ranks 304^th in the country in this all-important category and its 20.3 attempts from behind the arc is 301^st. Not only does that leave them them stuck in an outdated way of playing, but the lack of spacing has led to fewer driving lanes for Kadary Richmond, the 6-foot-5 senior transfer from Seton Hall who has not lived up to preseason expectations. The flip side is that Pitino is helping this team forge an identity centered on defense, toughness and rebounding and that will go a long way in the Big East. At some point, however, St. John’s is going to have to make some shots.

Tennessee (14-1, No. 1 AP, No. 3 NET)

HTSR Rating: Buy

Let’s not overreact to one bad game. Yes, the Vols got embarrassed in Gainesville on Tuesday night, but this team is a championship contender. Tennessee ranks third nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 1 in three-point defense. The Vols have a dynamic offensive weapon in 6-foot-5 senior guard Chaz Lanier, who transferred from North Florida, but they need to learn the proper lesson from Tuesday’s loss — namely, that they have to play with a mental toughness and aggression, especially against good teams on the road. It was certainly odd to see the nation’s top-ranked team lose by 30, but remember, these are college kids playing a long season. There’s still plenty of time to get primed for a deep run in March.

Texas (11-4, No. 41 NET)

HTSR Rating: Hold

It’s tempting to cast the Longhorns aside given that they’re 0-2 in the SEC, but three of their four losses came to teams ranked in the top 10 and the fourth was to an Ohio State team that shot great from three on opening night. The good news for Texas is it still has plenty of opportunities to gain Quad 1 wins, and it still has arguably the best pure scorer in the conference in 6-foot-6 freshman guard Tre Johnson. What’s scary for the Longhorns is their next game is at home against Tennessee, which no doubt will be motivated following the loss to Florida. That’s followed by road games against Oklahoma and Missouri. So Texas could be looking at an 0-5 start in the SEC. If the Longhorns can steal a game in that stretch and hang together, they have a chance to rise and recover over the second half of the season.

Texas A&M (12-2, No. 10 AP, No. 17 NET)

HTSR Rating: Buy

It’s not easy to play for Buzz Williams, and his culture takes a long time to get into place. But this is the best team he has had in College Station. The Aggies lead the nation in offensive rebound percentage and rank sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency. They have an elite scorer in 6-foot senior guard Wade Taylor and Zhuric Phelps, a transfer from SMU, has been a good addition. But it’s toughness Glue Guys like Andersson Garcia, Solomon Washington and Pharrel Payne, a transfer from Minnesota, that give Texas A&M a chance to play into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament and beyond.

UCLA (11-4, No. 18 NET)

HTSR Rating: Sell

The Bruins have lost three of their last four games, and the one win they had in that stretch was by three points over a Gonzaga team that played without its second-leading scorer Khalif Battle for the last 24 minutes after he was ejected due to a flagrant 2 foul. UCLA’s best wins over Oregon and Arizona were by a total of five points, so this team does not have much margin for error. It also has a major problem in the backcourt, where 6-foot-2 junior point guard Dylan Andrews has been wildly inefficient, 6-foot-3 sophomore guard Sebastian Mack has been inconsistent and no one can make an outside shot when it counts. Mick Cronin has gotten good offensive production from his frontcourt transfers Tyler Bilodeau and Eric Dailey, but as Tuesday’s 94-75 home loss to Michigan revealed, the Bruins’ interior defense is soft. That problem will only get bigger as the Big Ten season progresses.

UConn (12-3, No. 9 AP, No. 23 NET)

HTSR Rating: Hold

It’s a shame freshman guard Liam McNeely got hurt because the Huskies were just starting to find their swagger. Alex Karaban shook off his slow start and Hassan Diarra has settled in nicely at the point. McNeely’s absence for the next few weeks due to a high ankle sprain means that the Huskies will have much less margin for error. It also means more minutes for Saint Mary’s transfer Aidan Mahaney — which in turn could make this very mediocre defense (No. 131 in efficiency per KenPom) even more porous. It will be very interesting to see how UConn plays on the road tonight against a hot Villanova team that very much needs a win. The Huskies can still be pretty good without McNeely, but it goes without saying that in order to reach their potential, they need him in the lineup.

Villanova (10-5, No. 50 NET)

HTSR Rating: Buy

Give Kyle Neptune and his players credit. They started off disastrously with losses to Columbia, Saint Joseph’s and Virginia, but it went unnoticed that they came just one point from knocking off Maryland on Nov. 24. They’ve now won seven of their last eight, including a Quad 1 win over Cincinnati. Nova has a golden opportunity tonight at home against a UConn team that is missing its second-leading scorer Liam McNeely. We knew Eric Dixon would be an all-conference quality player, but he is leading the nation in scoring and playing like a consensus All-American. I also like the progress I’m seeing from point guard Jhamir Brickus, the transfer from LaSalle. Even if the Wildcats don’t get the win over UConn, I still think they will continue to improve over the next several weeks. If Neptune can get Villanova into the NCAA Tournament after that horrendous start, he will earn a lot of confidence from Nova Nation.  

West Virginia (11-3, No. 26 NET)

HTSR: Hold

I was leaning towards rating the Mountaineers a Buy, but their 75-56 home loss to Arizona Tuesday night gave me some pause. They have been playing the last six games without senior swingman Tucker DeVries, who is out with a lower body injury, and there’s no sign yet when he will be back. Yes, they scored an impressive win at Kansas without him (and without third-leading scorer Amani Hansberry, who has since returned), but I’m wondering if the loss to the Wildcats is an indication that the center cannot hold. Javon Small, a 6-foot-2 senior transfer from Oklahoma State, has been way better than advertised, but the Big 12 is a very difficult conference, and it’s vital to have all hands on deck.

Wisconsin (12-3, No. 25 NET)

HTSR Rating: Buy

It is truly remarkable how Greg Gard has completely reinvented this program. The once-plodding Badgers have become a three-happy, analytics driven offensive juggernaut. And they’re doing it despite having lost three top players into the transfer portal, most notably its backcourt of Chucky Hepburn (who went to Louisville) and A.J. Storr (Kansas). Wisconsin leads the nation in free throw shooting at 85.5 percent and ranks 27^th in turnover margin. The next few weeks mostly includes games against the middle to bottom tier teams in the Big Ten, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Badgers string together enough wins to move back into the rankings.

Xavier (9-7, No. 61 NET)

HTSR Rating: Sell

The Musketeers have some good players and they fight real hard, but they just can’t close out wins. St. John’s shot 2 for 16 from three against them Tuesday night, but the Musketeers allowed the Red Storm to grab 20 offensive rebounds and lost, 82-72. That leaves Xavier still without a Quad 1 win and probably not enough opportunities left to get into the NCAA Tournament. Xavier did get some good news last week when senior forward Zach Freemantle returned way earlier than expected from a bone bruise in his knee. If Freemantle can stay healthy and effective, then Xavier has a chance to turn this thing around. But I’m not optimistic.