Conference schedules are a wonderful thing.
It’s impossible to try to aggressively handicap every conference in college basketball, but we’ve found if you focus on a half dozen or so and dabble in a few others, it’s possible to find value and stay profitable.
These are some of the matchups that stood out to us each day this week.
Monday: USC at Michigan State (9.5) – Michigan State to cover
Tom Izzo has his team right where he wants them. They are talented enough to play with anyone in the country but have stubbed their toe a few times already. And they return home after playing his kind of defense – holding Nebraska under 60 points in Lincoln – yet still coming up short. Expect a total clampdown on a USC team that will be weary after getting whipped by Michigan and is in trouble with sharpshooter Rodney Rice out for the season. Could they hold USC below 60 here, too? Seems possible to us. We’ll be looking at this as a strong under play as well, but Sparty can light it up at home and no way the offense will be that stagnant for a second straight game. Izzo is 22-9-2 ATS off a loss since the start of the 2022-23 season. That’s hard to overlook.
Tuesday: Iowa at Minnesota – Iowa to cover
Iowa has lost just twice all season – at Michigan State and at Iowa State. Not too shabby. The Hawkeyes have also covered 10 of their first 13 games. That’s even more impressive to us. Their average margin of victory is over 21 points and they have covered, on average, by 4.5 points per game. Iowa is 9-2 ATS as a favorite and Minnesota is hardly the most intimidating venue in the Big 10. The Hawkeyes have a top-30 KenPem offense and defense and have one of the best turnover differentials in the nation. The Gophers are so methodical that if they fall behind, they could be cooked.
Wednesday: Duquesne at St. Joseph’s – Over
The Dukes are all about breakneck basketball, and we expect that trend to hold on the road. Duquesne is 11-2 to the over, and those games are going over, on average, by 11 points per game. Staggering. The Dukes are top 30 in pace and top 40 in eFG%; that’s how you keep going over. The Dukes are over in four straight games and are 11-1 to the over when the total is set below 170 (the one under, vs. Boise State, went under by 0.5). Given how St. Joseph’s plays and where this game is being played, this total should be set around 154. We expect it to be played in the 160s.
Men's Top 25: Buh-Bye St. John's, Kentucky and Florida
Jan 5: Ignominious losses send St. John’s and Kansas spiraling. Big 12 reps in UCF, Texas Tech and Houston make strides. Florida struggles for quality wins.
Thursday: Elon at North Carolina A&T – Over
We can’t quit Elon overs. They are starting to feel automatic. The Phoenix can run and gun and are hanging 85 on everybody — including at College of Charleston last week, which can be tough. North Carolina A&T has some serious defensive deficiencies and we are going to keep riding the Elon trend. The Phoenix are 10-3 to the over and are going over by 12 points per game. Their CAA games have gone over by 40.5 and 10.5. They are coming off decent rest and are 4-0 to the over this season on four days’ rest or more, going over by 17.5 per game. The Aggies could crack 80 here as well, and have been adept at scoring in garbage time. North Carolina A&T has been a dead over team as well in early CAA play. We wouldn’t flinch if the Phoenix hung a 90-burger here.
Friday: Miami (OH) at Toledo – Miami (OH) ML
The Redhawks are 12-0, people. I don’t care who you are playing, that’s damn impressive. Oh, and they are 9-3 ATS and 8-2 ATS as a favorite. They will be a small favorite here, probably opening around a spread of -3. We’ll be jumping that moneyline right away. Early-season conference play on the road can be tough, but this is a solid basketball team that ranks 12th in the country in KenPom eFG% and seventh shooting the three-ball. They scored 95 at Bowling Green recently, and Toledo has some serious issues on defense (268th in KenPom defensive rating and 328th in opponent’s eFG%).
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