Another great week of games, and another delectable debate over which team should be ranked No. 1. Last week, I stuck with Purdue, even though there was a case to be made for Michigan and Arizona. This week, there is no case for Purdue in the wake of the Boilermakers’ thrashing (at home no less!) by Iowa State. So who should replace them?
Fortunately, your favorite balloter and Hoop Thinker is on hand with the answer. For that decision and all others, I relied on my three usual metrics: KenPom (which includes data from last season and is predictive), BartTorvik (filtered to include only this season’s games) and BartTorvik’s Wins Above Bubble. The numbers beside each team indicate its ranking in those metrics, and the number in parentheses reflects where they were ranked on my ballot last week.
Here, then, is the (correct) order of the top 25 teams in men’s college basketball, as filed to the Associated Press Sunday night.
DROPPED OUT: Kentucky (20) 19-32-106, Indiana (21) 28-18-62, TCU (22) 56-43-88, Iowa (24) 25-21-19, USC (25) 34-36-12
ALMOST FAMOUS: Almost Famous: Texas Tech (30-63-42), UCLA (31-33-56), Saint Mary’s (36-25-28), Miami (37-27-34), Oklahoma State (46-45-14)
Notes on the Votes
• It was an eventful week, and for all the big margins and surprising results, I leaned into honoring my previous ranking. That’s why I did not move Michigan to my No. 1 spot last week even after the Wolverines steamrolled the competition at the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas. I also wrote last week about my distaste for moving my No. 1 team down unless it loses. Well, not only did Purdue lose last week, it got absolutely embarrassed at home by Iowa State, 81-58. That meant this week I would have a new No. 1 team for the first time all season.
• As you can see, that new team is Duke, partly because it was No. 2 last week, but mostly because the Blue Devils have arguably the best resume in the country following their 66-60 win at Michigan State on Saturday. This team has now beaten four teams who were ranked in the AP Top 25 poll. Duke’s metrics justify my decision as well. You’ll note the Blue Devils vaulted Michigan as the top team in Wins Above Bubble.
A case could be made for any of my top three teams to be ranked No. 1, and perhaps for Iowa State as well. But as I’ve been saying, my ballot should mean something, so if you’re No. 2 on week and the No. 1 team loses, you are almost always going to move up.
• As for the Cyclones, I probably had them too low last week. That was partly because their 7-0 start included a one-point squeaker in Vegas over St. John’s, which has since proven itself to be vulnerable. Yet, Iowa State made the statement of all statements last week, not only trouncing the Boilermakers in Mackey but also by hanging 132 points on Alcorn State. Yes, Alcorn State is Alcorn State, but that’s still the most points in the history of the program. We know T.J. Otzelberger’s teams are always going to be elite defensively, but this group can really put points on the board.
• Purdue obviously needed to be dropped. The question was, how far? I landed at No. 7 because the Boilermakers had to be ahead of Alabama since they beat the Tide in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 13.
• I should also note that Alabama’s neutral court win over Illinois on Nov. 19 looks even better after the Illini knocked of Tennessee in Nashville on Saturday. Gotta keep following that bouncing ball.
• I mentioned last week that I was surprised my fellow AP voters left Kansas unranked given that the Jayhawks were a) playing without Darryn Peterson and b) he was projected to be back soon. Well, he came back on Sunday, and the Jayhawks justified my faith by beating Missouri 80-60. Peterson had 17 points in the win. This is a classic case of how a team can benefit from a key injury because it forces the other players to improve and become more confident. It make take Kansas a couple of weeks to reintegrate Peterson into the lineup, but if the Jayhawks can stay healthy, they’re going to be very tough to beat by the time Big 12 play begins.
• If a team is ranked ahead of another team in all three metrics, that will almost always be reflected on my ballot. But in the case of Illinois and Houston, I put the Illini ahead because they beat Tennessee in Nashville, whereas the Cougars lost to the Vols in Vegas. Houston’s one-point win over Auburn in Birmingham also lost some luster when the Tigers got obliterated at Arizona on Saturday by 19 points.
• North Carolina is holding steady, but the Tar Heels’ three-point win at Kentucky on Tuesday looked less impressive after the Wildcats got run out of the gym by Gonzaga on Friday night in Nashville. Clearly, Kentucky is not a top-25 team, so it was an easy choice for me to drop the Cats off my ballot. Their best win of the season was at home over Valparaiso on Nov. 7. And check out that WAB rank. Sheesh.
• Arkansas played its way back onto my ballot with a win over Louisville, but because that game was in Fayetteville, and given the disparity in the metrics, the Cardinals are still six spots ahead. The Razorbacks have two big neutral site games coming up against Texas Tech on Saturday in Dallas and on Dec. 20 against Houston in Newark.
• I continue to have concerns about St. John’s, which struggled to beat Ole Miss at home on Saturday and whose best win was in Vegas over a Baylor team that lost at Memphis on Saturday. On the other hand, the one-point loss to Iowa State in Vegas looks a lot better after the Cyclones destroyed Purdue.
• Vanderbilt’s metrics continue to soar but at some point a team needs to score significant wins to climb up the rankings. The Commodores’ best win remains the 96-71 decision over Saint Mary’s in The Bahamas. They don’t play a ranked team until they face Alabama at home on Jan. 7.
• Four other teams lost games that prompted me to drop them: TCU (home to Notre Dame), Iowa (by 21 at Michigan State), USC (at home to Washington after leading by 18 at halftime) and Indiana (at Minnesota and to Louisville in Indianapolis). I let the metrics tell me what teams I should add as replacements. That included Georgia, whose only loss was to Clemson in overtime in Charleston. As I mentioned in Hoop Thoughts, Mike White’s Bulldogs are playing at a breakneck pace that is very much in contrast with the way White has coached during his career. So far, it’s working.
• Virginia has a kind-of bad loss to Butler on a neutral site, but the Cavaliers’ strong metrics and convincing wins over Texas and Dayton pushed them into my final slot.
• As for my Almost Famous group, keep your eye on Oklahoma State, which is still undefeated. The Cowboys’ best win came at home over Texas A&M. Their surprisingly perfect start will add considerable intrigue to their game against Oklahoma in Oklahoma City on Saturday.
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