And so … the end is here … and so we face … the final ballot ….
First and foremost, a hearty thank you to all of you for supporting Hoops HQ. We have had a blast launching this new venture and I promise there are big things to come through and beyond the NCAA Tournament.
In the meantime, here is the final installment of my (always correct) men’s top 25 rankings. Once again, I have relied on a cross-section of metrics rankings (the NET, KPI and Wins Above Bubble, in that order) as well as recency bias as revealed in BartTovik’s efficiency rankings over the last four weeks. Please don’t be confused at the differences between these rankings and Brad Wachtel’s bracket updates. When you’re putting together an NCAA Tournament bracket, every game counts the same. When you’re doing a top 25 ballot, you have the discretion to weigh recent games (and other forms of bias) as you please.
Disagree if you will with some of my choices, but know this:
I voted My Way.
Last week’s rank on my ballot are in parentheses:
DROPPED OUT: Missouri (12), Michigan (21), Vanderbilt (24)
ALMOST FAMOUS: Drake, Georgia, Kansas, Marquette, Memphis, Mississippi State, New Mexico, Ole Miss
NOTES ON THE VOTES
- It took a long time, but we finally got a change at the top. It was pretty much a no brainer for me to leave Auburn at No. 1 after the Tigers lost at home to Florida on Feb. 8. But last week they lost twice (at Texas A&M, home vs. Alabama), which means not only did they lose their spot at the top of my ballot, but they dropped to No. 5. However, Auburn should still be the overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament because of its 16-4 record in Quad 1 games. The next closest total Quad 1 wins is 11 (Alabama and Michigan State). Auburn’s strength in the results metrics (KPI and WAB) are based on what it has done through the course of the season, but the very slight dip in the predictives (the Tigers have also been No. 2 on KenPom the last few weeks) should tell us something. Auburn is also No. 5 on BartTorvik over the last four weeks.
- I expect Duke to be a unanimous No. 1 in the AP poll, but the next three spots are up for grabs. I actually thought I would have Florida at No. 2, but I was surprised to learn that Houston has more Quad 1 wins (10-4 record vs. Florida’s 9-4). Alabama is lower than both in the NET, KenPom and on BartTorvik the last four weeks. But there’s no wrong order here. Tennessee’s metrics are still holding up well despite the two-point loss at Ole Miss last week. Michigan State has played amazing of late, including its 17-point thrashing of Michigan on Sunday, but as you can see from the metrics, the Spartans still have not jumped a tier. They are also No. 11 on BartTorvik over the last four weeks.
- I’ve been consistently ranking Kentucky lower than its metrics for a while, but it’s time to course correct. The Wildcats scored an impressive win at Missouri on Saturday. Their previous two losses came at Alabama and at home to Auburn. Yes, they lost at Texas on Feb. 15, but they also beat Tennessee at home four days before. Part of my reluctance to rank the Wildcats higher is because of their injuries, but you can’t deny the results or the numbers. Not only are their overall metrics solid, but they are No. 8 on BartTorvik over the last four weeks.
- Speaking of that recency bias, Clemson is No. 4 and BYU is No. 6 on BartTorvik over the last four weeks. BYU won at Iowa State last Tuesday. Sleep on those teams at your own peril.
- The Big Ten is a bit of a jumble once you get past Michigan State and Maryland. (The Terps’ only loss in the last eight games was at home to Michigan State on that Tre Holloman halfcourt buzzer beater.) Even though Illinois’ win over Purdue was in Champaign, I thought Illinois needed to be above, especially considering the Boilermakers have now lost five of their last seven. And while I didn’t ding Wisconsin too badly for losing at home to Oregon in overtime and then at Michigan State, the Badgers’ 11-point loss at home to Penn State is definitely concerning. Wisconsin is No. 14 on BartTorvik over the last four weeks (remember, the Badgers won at Purdue three weeks ago), so I didn’t want to drop this team completely off my ballot. But Wisconsin definitely needs to re-establish its defensive focus or it’s going home early in the NCAA Tournament.
- Texas A&M is not only back on my ballot but re-enters at No. 16 courtesy of its 83-72 home win over Auburn. The Aggies then won at LSU by 14 on Saturday. Their metrics are strong, so I put them at the low end. They’re No. 23 on BartTorvik over the last four weeks.
- I dropped Missouri off my ballot for losing at Oklahoma and at home to Kentucky. Those aren’t terrible losses and the metrics (21-27-29) are pretty good. But the Tigers have now lost four of their last five games. Vanderbilt was an easier decision to drop after the Commodores lost to Arkansas (by 13 at home) and Georgia (by 11 on the road.). Vandy’s metrics (43-42-34) indicate it probably shouldn’t have been ranked in the first place. Michigan also gets the shovel after losing three straight to the top teams in the league, including home games against Illinois (by 20) and Maryland. The Wolverines are No. 48 on BartTorvik over the last four weeks. That’s a flashing red siren.
- I did not expect to rank UCLA and Gonzaga, but I’m riding the numbers. As you can see, the Bruins are in the top 25 in all three rankings and they’re No. 17 on BartTorvik over the last four weeks. Gonzaga preforms worse in the results metrics, but the Bulldogs are No. 9 on KenPom and No. 10 on BartTorvik over the last four weeks. The only team Gonzaga has lost two over the last two months is Saint Mary’s. The Bulldogs dominated Santa Clara and San Francisco, two good WCC teams, on the road last week by a combined 39 points. It will be interesting to see whether the Zags justify my faith in the WCC Tournament this week.
- Memphis remains stuck on my Almost Famous list. The Tigers continue to have an odd metrics profile (48-13-25). They’re also No. 71 on BartTorvik over the last four weeks, which means that even though they continue to win (14 of their last 15), their victory margins are not as big as they should me. That might mean this team is not as good as most of us seem to think.
