Thanksgiving is over, but the feasting will continue. Tuesday and Wednesday will serve up 16 games that comprise the ACC/SEC Challenge. And Tuesday marks the start of a five-day, 11-game Big 12-Big East Battle. Hope you’re still hungry!
I had lots of fun putting together my top 25 this week. Before I dive in, one note on my use of metrics. As I’ve said before, metrics are useful, but not gospel. I look at them, I consider them, I marinate on them … and then I make my decisions by feel. If you’re looking for perfect consistency, you can stop. That goes double for head-to-head results.
The three metrics I use are KenPom, which is predictive and includes data from last season; BartTorvik, a similar algorithm which I filter to include only data from this season; and Wins Above Bubble, which is a new category from BartTorvik (also filtered to include just games from this season). The NCAA men’s basketball committee has added WAB to the official team sheets and I am finding it a very useful reference. Instead of writing out the categories each time, I will list their respective rankings in the order above, e.g. North Carolina (16-53-60).
Here then is the correct order of the top 25 teams in men’s college basketball as filed to the AP on Sunday night. The rankings on my ballot last week are in parentheses.
DROPPED OUT: UConn (12), Indiana (16), Texas (17), Arkansas (20), Saint Mary’s (24), Nebraska (25)
ALMOST FAMOUS: Clemson, Dayton, Drake, Georgia, Louisville, Ole Miss, Penn State, St. John’s, UC Irvine, Utah State, West Virginia
NOTES ON THE VOTES
- It’s usually my policy that if my No. 1 team doesn’t lose, that team stays at the top. But I had to revisit that this week because Auburn has made such a compelling case to be ranked No. 1. The comparison is close. Coming into the week, I would have said that Auburn’s win over Houston (the game was in Houston although in the off-campus Toyota Center) was a little better than Kansas’ win over Duke in true-neutral Las Vegas. But Houston’s losses to Alabama and San Diego State last week (both in overtime) made that a wash. Auburn and Kansas both beat North Carolina, but Kansas’ win was by three points at home while Auburn’s was by 13 on a neutral court. Auburn beat Iowa State (No. 6 on KenPom) and Memphis (No. 31) in Maui while Kansas beat No. 37 Michigan State on a neutral court. And Auburn (1-2-1) is a little ahead of Kansas (7-7-4) in the metrics. It’s close, but if the best rationale for ranking Kansas over Auburn is that the Jayhawks were No. 1 last week on my ballot last week, that’s not quite enough. Hence, your new No. 1 team, the Auburn Tigers.
- You could make a similar case for vaulting Tennessee (2-1-7) over Duke (4-3-38) given that the Vols have better metrics and Duke’s road win at Arizona got worse when the Wildcats lost to Oklahoma and West Virginia at the Battle 4 Atlantis. But at least Duke’s was a true road win, whereas Tennessee’s best win over Baylor was in The Bahamas. Plus, Duke played Kentucky and Kansas to the final possession. The Blue Devils have a huge game Wednesday night at home against Auburn. Even though that game is at home, if the Blue Devils lose they will probably drop a spot or two.
- Gonzaga (3-4-12) dropped eight spots due to its overtime loss to West Virginia in The Bahamas. Iowa State also lost in Maui, but that was by two points to a better team (Auburn) after the Cyclones had built an 18-point lead. Iowa State’s metrics are not great (6-14-33), but I know what I see.
- Oregon (21-26-2) was my big riser after the Ducks won the Players Era Festival with wins over Texas A&M, San Diego State and Alabama. The Ducks also have a tough road win at rival Oregon State. As you can see, I leaned more heavily into Oregon’s WAB ranking, which confirmed what I saw from them in Vegas. Plus, they needed to be ranked ahead of the teams they beat. Oregon opens Big Ten play this week against its old Pac-12 rivals, USC (away) and UCLA (home).
- Two other teams, Memphis (31-44-3) and San Diego State (40-41-29), played their way onto my ballot with impressive performances in Maui and Las Vegas, respectively. The Aztecs’ meager metrics are the result of having two losses, but those were to Gonzaga (home) and Oregon (Vegas), so they don’t bother me. And they beat Houston on a neutral court, so the Aztecs had to ranked ahead of the Cougars.
- Pittsburgh (13-13-18), which was second in Others Receiving Votes in last week’s AP poll, validated my belief by winning at Ohio State, albeit in overtime on a buzzer beating three-pointer. The Panthers are a good example of why I use metrics. I would never have ranked them last week without those numbers. Also, Pitt’s 16-point win at home over West Virginia on Nov. 15 also got better when the Mountaineers knocked off Gonzaga and Arizona last week (both in overtime) and then lost in overtime to Louisville at the Battle 4 Atlantis.
- Oklahoma (42-61-13) got a number next to its name as reward for winning the Battle 4 Atlantis. You’ll note the Sooners’ high WAB ranking, which seems to be consistently ahead of the curve compared to the other two metrics. Ditto for Arizona State (58-62-8), which beat two good teams, New Mexico and Saint Mary’s, in Palm Springs. Ohio State (18-16-64) got dinged for losing at home to Pitt, but the Buckeyes still have that neutral court win over Texas. Their low WAB ranking is a very loud canary in the coal mine.
- I was inclined to again rank Nebraska (53-55-44), but the Cornhuskers have poor metrics and besides, I ran out of room. Their win at Creighton got a little worse when the Bluejays lost to San Diego State and Texas A&M in Las Vegas. And their loss to Saint Mary’s got a little worse when the Gaels lost to Arizona State. That ball keeps bouncing, doesn’t it?
- Several glamour programs got dropped this week. The most obvious was UConn (24-58-159), which went 0-3 at the Maui Invitational. The Huskies were ranked No. 2 in the AP poll last week with six first-place votes. I had them at No. 12, which I’m sure was one of the lowest of any AP voter. (And don’t think I didn’t hear about it on social media.) The only reason I even ranked UConn that high was out of respect for the program and coach, but given that the Huskies started the season by playing four teams ranked below 300 on KenPom, I felt they needed a stronger case. Suffice to say, their case got considerably worse.
- Dropping Arkansas (43-56-81) was easy after the Razorbacks were dominated by unranked Illinois, 90-77, in Kansas City on Thanksgiving Day. Anyone who still has Arkansas in their top 25 should lose their voting privileges. I didn’t have to drop Arizona off my ballot because I already did last week. I’m sure my fellow AP voters, who left the Wildcats at No. 24, will do the same after they lost to Oklahoma and West Virginia at the Battle 4 Atlantis to drop to 3-4. The next chance to see how good Arizona is (or isn’t) is on Dec. 14 when the Cats play UCLA in Phoenix. And Indiana (52-67-65) needed to be flushed after those pathetic performances against Louisville and Gonzaga in The Bahamas.
- Ole Miss (41-50-31) was one possession away from being on my ballot. The Rebels beat BYU, 96-85, in overtime in San Diego and then lost to Purdue, 80-78 the next day. The Rebs have an interesting game coming up Tuesday at Louisville in the ACC/SEC Challenge.
- Speaking of Louisville (39-29-50), the Cardinals earned respect with their win over Indiana, but there’s still not enough here (as the metrics indicate) to warrant a ranking. In retrospect, we were too quick to dismiss the Cardinals following their 22-point home loss to Tennessee. To be fair, this program has earned our skepticism, but it is a new team with a new coach in Pat Kelsey and Louisville proved in The Bahamas that at the very least, it’s not going to be an ACC doormat this season.
- The metrics persuaded me to add UC Irvine (57-33-16) and Utah State (45-32-15) to my Almost Famous list. The metrics tried to do the same for UCLA (17-11-77), but the Bruins’ WAB ranking and the fact that they have no good wins and a loss to New Mexico that got worse when the Lobos lost to St. John’s (road) and Arizona State (neutral) convinced me not to fall for the banana in the tailpipe.
