These are still very early days in the college basketball schedule, so we are still accumulating reliable data. That said, there are certain trends that have held in recent years, especially when it comes to style of play and tempo and how certain coaches approach non-conference games. That gives us a chance to provide an early blueprint for how to bet the games, both for the coming week and throughout the season.
We can’t say for sure that we will be making these plays in the days and weeks ahead, but we definitely have some early directional leans. (Tune into “http://www.wannabetwithus.com” daily at youtube.com/@wannabetwithus to find out which games we are definitely betting.).
If nothing else, consider this list as a prism into how we work.
Michigan State Unders
We made a lot of green backing Sparty unders last season and there are some trends to Tom Izzo- ball that stand the test of time. Since 2023, Sparty is 18-11 to the under in non-conference games and 23-12 under at home overall in that span. It’s not just in the Big 10 — this. This week, we aren’t as hot to back this trend as they host San Jose State, as those Spartans are 16-7-1 to the over out of conference since 2023, and 14-9 to the over as a road dog since 2023, but we will be looking very closely at the total when State hosts Detroit Mercy (Nov. 2111/21).
Pitt to Cover
The Panthers have done plenty of damage on the national scale the past few years and exceeded some expectations. And they, frankly, have really enjoyed playing outside the ACC. Pitt is 16-6-1 ATS out of conference since 2023, among the best cover percentages in the country. When you factor in their +6 cover margin (covering those games on average by two possessions), we get even more excited about the prospects. They host an Eastern Michigan team on Monday that has been a strong covering team out of conference, so we’re going to monitor that game but are looking more towards next Monday when Bucknell comes to town.
UMBC/Morgan State Over (Tuesday)
The Retrievers have a frenetic and experienced backcourt that plays at a hyper pace. We rode their overs quite a bit last year and they nearly beat Maryland in a scrimmage last month — and got off a ton of shots in the process. UMBC is 19-7 to the over out of conference since 2023, with those games going over by nearly eight points a pop. Clearly that is among the highest over rates in the country. They face Morgan State here; Morgan plays no defense and takes a ridiculous amount of shots and were a dead over team for much of last season. Morgan is 17-9 to the over out of conference since 2023,’23 and when these teams last played (in 2023) the game produced 172 points.
Wanna Bet? Three More Futures Plays for the 2025-26 Season
November 8th: Hoops HQ’s gambling tandem is going back to the future, with futures bets that includes a smart low-major play
Oklahoma Team Total (vs Arkansas-Ark Pine -Bluff on Tuesday)
No team has been more dead to the over out of conference the past three years than Arkansas- Pine -Bluff, and a lot of that has to do with their opponents hanging huge numbers on them. The Golden Lions are 16-5-1 to the over since 2023’23 out of conference. So far this season, Washington dropped 94 on them and Portland hung 83 on them. Could the Sooners do the same this week? I wouldn’t bet against it. They hung 102 on Saint Francis to open the season. Triple- digit action again here?
Austin Peay/Wyoming Under (Thursday)
We would be surprised if this total is set low enough to scare us off (south of 135?), but even if it is, history would say to run with it. Austin Peay is 17-6-1 to the under against non-conference teams since 2023, with those games going under on average by 8.1 points PPG. Wowsers. As for Wyoming, the Cowboys were 233rd in offensive efficiency in KenPom rankings last season and nothing we’ve picked up about this year’s additions gives us reason to believe they will be scoring at a significantly higher pace — this season and especially not so early in the season as they work out the kinks.
Houston Christian to cover vs UL Monroe (Thursday)
We’re not going to try to tell you we are experts on Houston Christian hoops, … but when a team is 13-4-1 ATS out of conference for two- plus seasons, it tends to get our attention. It’s the kind of thing you circle in your notes. Oh, and they are hosting a squad on Thursday that was 4-8 in nonconferencenon-conference games last year. Not going to say we will be blindly jumping on the Huskies here, but there is a good chance that, yeah, we are on the Huskies here.
Indiana State/Duke Over (Friday)
The Sycamores already played a 104-73 shootout with Illinois Tech, which is picking up right where they left off a year ago. Illinois State is 20-5 to the over since 2023 against non-conference foes, a staggering rate. Those games have gone over by an average of 9.6 points per game; Vegas has obviously had a difficult time pricing these high enough to scare off those already hip to the trend. So, um, do we think Indiana State is going to hold the Dukies in check? A year ago at this time, the Sycamores they were airing it out with Ball State (94-84), and when they visited Ohio State last season the game produced 186 points. Hmm.
