Well, nothing lasts forever. We were bound to pick a loser again with our lookahead wagers, and after seven straight wins, we hit the wall.
So let’s start another winning streak now.
Here are the plays we are targeting this week:
Monday: Howard at Delaware State – Howard to cover
We identified Howard as the class of the MEAC early in the nonconference schedule and gave out the future on air, and then gasped while the Bison struggled early in conference play. But they are indeed the class of the MEAC and outplayed Yale at home last week before losing in OT. They should swallow up lowly Delaware State here, as they did in the first meeting (an 84-58 blowout). Yeah, it could be 25-plus again. The Bison have the top offense and second-best defense in the MEAC and have covered six of the last seven in-conference, all by 5.5 points or more. Delaware State has the worst offense in the country, per KenPom, and has covered just once in the last seven conference outings.
Tuesday: Air Force at New Mexico – New Mexico to cover
Air Force is pretty hopeless right now. They are a must-fade and are getting blasted by 30 points, even by suspect opponents. Vegas can’t open this high enough to scare us off. Air Force is 1-11 ATS in the last 12, losing eight straight games by 15 or more. New Mexico is a solid operation and has the second-best defense in the conference and the fourth-best offense. Air Force was a 17-point dog in the first meeting between these two and New Mexico won by 42. Gulp.
Kentucky at Florida, Kansas at Iowa State Top a Loaded Slate
Feb 14: Seth Davis makes his picks for a loaded Saturday slate, including Clemson at Duke, Kansas at Iowa State, Purdue at Iowa and more
Wednesday: Lehigh at Navy – Navy to cover
The Mids are on a rampage and the rest of the Patriot League is on notice. And while they have been routinely blowing out teams at home, I don’t expect them to be overconfident here after beating Lehigh by only three points in the first meeting. Navy has the top offense and defense in the Patriot League and has covered eight straight — including seven of those contests by multiple possessions.
Thursday: Vermont at UMBC – UMBC ML
UMBC has won seven of the last eight games, and covered seven of eight, all by at least three points. The Retrievers have a top backcourt and are sharp at home; they have won five straight at home, and only one was close. UMBC is holding teams in conference to just 30-percent shooting behind the arc, and that is going to be a problem for Vermont here.
Friday: Canisius at Rider – Under
Canisius is under in five of the last seven games and eight of the last 11. They are 12-2 to the under on the road and 8-0 to the under on the road in conference play. Those games have gone under by: 7, 6, 26.5, 9, 19.5, 12.5, 5.5 and 3.5 points. Rider is under in three straight games and 11-4 to the under in conference. We expect no pace and shoddy three-point shooting – even given the defensive issues with these two teams – from two teams that are basically playing out the string until the conference tourney starts.
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