It’s Christmas in November, hoopheads. After seven months spent tracking transfers and court cases, we now have actual games to watch. And pick! And bet on!
We still need to follow the eligibility cases, alas, but at least we can do so in the context of competition. Villanova and Notre Dame gave us a rousing opener on Sunday morning, but on Monday the season tips off in earnest with over 180 games scheduled to be played across the country.
That includes a couple marquee games between ranked teams. In past years, we’ve complained about the season’s lackluster curtain raiser, but this is as sizzling an opening day as I can remember. That will be the case throughout the first couple of months of the season.
Once again, I’ll be picking games against the spread, beginning tonight and going all the way through the first Monday in April. Play me or fade me, but I hope you’ll read me!
Here are my picks against the spread for Monday’s top five games:
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 14 Miami
Seth’s Analysis
Florida enters the season as the No. 1 team in most of the preseason rankings, which makes sense considering the Gators are the only team that returns four double-figure scorers from last season, amounting to nearly 82 percent of their scoring. The obvious strength is the frontcourt trio of Thomas Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu and Alex Condon, but the big question is whether fifth-year senior point guard Denzel Aberdeen can stay eligible. He spent three years in Gainesville and was a reserve on the 2025 champs. He transferred to Kentucky last season and came back to Florida, where he is currently able to play due to a court injunction. Miami also has a key player eligible via court order in 6-foot-9 fifth-year forward Malik Reneau, who averaged 18.9 points and 6.5 rebounds last season. The Hurricanes also grabbed point guard Acaden Lewis out of the transfer portal following his outstanding freshman season at Villanova. I’m actually surprised the point spread isn’t bigger so I’ll go with the favorite, but as long as Reneau is in the lineup, the Hurricanes can beat anyone.
Memphis vs. No. 18 Iowa State
Seth’s Analysis
Milan Momcilovic left for Kentucky, but Iowa State still has a major piece returning in senior point guard Tamin Lipsey, who is eligible for the time being due to a court order. Lipsey’s availability will be especially critical because 6-foot-3 sophomore guard Killyan Toure is out until January following summertime shoulder surgery. The Cyclones will also rely heavily on Bradley transfer Jaquan Johnson, who averaged 16.9 points per game. The Tigers suffered through a disastrous 13-19 campaign a year ago, so it’s probably a good thing that they only return about 11 percent of their scoring. Senior guard Jayden Reid, a transfer from Northwestern, was an American preseason all-conference selection, and senior guard Luke Almodovar scored 16 points in an exhibition loss to Arkansas. I don’t think a team with a brand new roster is ready to hang with an elite program like Iowa State this early in the season.
No. 15 Gonzaga vs. Purdue
Seth’s Analysis
Aside from Kansas, no high-major program is more dependent on five-in-five decisions than Gonzaga. Two players, guards Xaivian Lee and Javon Bennett, are eligible via court orders, while fifth-year forward Chauncey Wiggins is still sidelined. The Zags’ two international prospects, Nathan De Sousa and Izan Almansa, got the green light from the NCAA. Add in top returnees Braden Huff and Davis Fogle, and you have the makings of a Final Four team. Purdue, meanwhile, has a lot of work to do, as evidenced by their 76-53 exhibition loss at UConn. The Boilermakers shot just 2 of 25 from three in that one. Besides the obvious remedy (make shots!), Purdue also needs more production from 6-foot-4 sophomore point guard Omer Mayer, who has the unenviable task of replacing Braden Smith at point guard.
Ohio State at BYU
Seth’s Analysis
The most intriguing part of this matchup is the battle between two of the top freshmen in the country in BYU forward Bruce Branch and Ohio State forward Anthony Thompson. Ohio State’s best perimeter player, 6-foot-1 junior guard John Mobley Jr., rolled his ankle in an exhibition win against Butler, but he has returned to practice and is good to go. It will be fun to watch him go up against Cougars guard Robert Wright, the 6-foot-1 junior who has returned to Provo to pilot the Cougars’ offense. Ditto for the battle inside between Buckeyes sophomore forward Amare Bynum and Jaxon Kohler, the 6-foot-10 Michigan State transfer who is eligible for the time being due to a court order. This is a de facto home game for the Cougars, but I’m expecting big things from Ohio State this season, so I’ll take a flyer on the upset.
No. 5 Arizona vs. No. 22 UCLA
Seth’s Analysis
Bill Walton will have the best seat in the house for this battle of old Pac-12 rivals. The best player on the floor will be Arizona’s 7-foot-2 senior forward Mo Krivas, who was tapped in the preseason as a first team All-American and Big 12 player of the year. But the most intriguing player will be UCLA freshman forward Nikola Kusturica, the 6-foot-9 17-year-old dynamo from Serbia. Kusturica didn’t shoot it well during the Bruins’ two exhibition games, but he had a great impact on defense. Last year, Arizona freshman forward Koa Peat had the biggest performance of opening night in a win over Florida, and now another stud newbie, 6-foot-5 freshman guard Caleb Holt, will try to do the same after averaging 17.7 points and 5.7 rebounds in the three exhibition games. But the Wildcats will be missing a significant piece in the frontcourt as fifth-year senior R.J. Godfrey, who transferred from Clemson, remains ineligible while he continues his fight in the courts. I think the Bruins can at least make this a one-possession game if they don’t win it outright.
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