Welcome back to Daily Best Bets, where I give you my top picks and analysis for today’s games. As always, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
We are currently 25-18-1 and +$75 on the season. Today, we’re betting on two of the biggest games on the card as well as continuing to play some postseason wagers in the Atlantic Sun.
Let’s get started.
WHAT’S YOUR BEST BET TONIGHT?
TELL US BELOW.
Kansas at 4 Houston, 9 p.m., FS1
Line: Houston -9.5 , Over/Under: 132.5
The Pick: $10 on Houston -9.5 (-110)
The Houston Cougars lead the nation in frequency of post shots while also ranking in the bottom of Division I in tempo and bottom three in frequency attacking the rim, making their status as one of the country’s three best teams all the more analytically impressive. Per ShotQuality metrics, they’re the second most efficient three-point shooting team among all 364 schools, run effectively in transition, boast a top-10 offensive rebounding rate, and develop elite-level spacing. The Cougars also maintain the best ShotQuality defense in the country and while they’ve been slightly unlucky defending opponents in the post, they’re still performing above expectations across the board as they routinely seem to do under coach Kelvin Sampson. If the season ended today, this would mark the fifth consecutive year the Cougars finish in the top five of KenPom’s efficiency metrics, an almost unprecedented run of excellence. Kansas enters off a disappointing home loss to Texas Tech, though the expected numbers suggested a close contest, meaning the Jayhawks are almost certainly a good notch below both Tech and Houston. The Cougars made a statement in last year’s late-season matchup, blowing out Kansas by 30 points, and I expect a similar effort on tonight as Houston quietly wins the conference again while still not receiving the respect they deserve.
UCLA at Northwestern, 9 p.m., FS1
Line: UCLA -3 , Over/Under: 132.5
The Pick: $10 on NW +3 (-110)
Northwestern successfully forces turnovers while holding onto the ball well, creating a solid basis for a team worth backing, with their recent three-game Big Ten winning streak largely supported by ShotQuality metrics. The Wildcats have overperformed defensively this season and now face a UCLA squad that forces the fourth most turnovers nationally, potentially neutralizing Northwestern’s typically sure hands. The Bruins subsist on a midrange diet without attacking the rim frequently, but compensate by preventing opponents from getting to the rim and playing the 25th best defense against shots in the paint. UCLA has experienced a balanced season of expected wins turning into losses and vice versa, most recently expected to lose to Ohio State and beat Minnesota, but generally playing some of the country’s best defense, particularly limiting transition and keeping opponents from scoring off the dribble. With UCLA fighting to avoid sliding down to the seven-line for March Madness, and the market enamored by the resulting “must win” narrative, there’s likely value going against UCLA with the home team in this late-season, primetime Monday night national television game.
#5 Eastern Kentucky at #4 Jacksonville, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Line: Jacksonville -2.5 , Over/Under: 142.5
The Pick: $10 on EKY +2.5 (-110)
EKU is a jump shooting team that takes great looks at the rim when available, though their reliance on midrange shots earns them poor marks in shot selection metrics. The Colonels compensate with strong shot makers for their conference level, taking a high rate of open threes with good spacing while forcing numerous turnovers and maintaining ball security, creating extra possessions that offset questionable shot choices. They’ll face Jacksonville, who has benefited from lucky three point shooting all season, likely inflating their efficiency ratings beyond their true level. Despite Jacksonville’s strong defense, their offensive metrics reveal a team that rarely creates trips to the free throw line (where they shoot just 322nd best nationally) and will likely struggle against EKU’s turnover-forcing defense. If the Colonels can hit their jumpers—the foundation of their offensive approach—they should advance past the Dolphins and cover the spread as an underdog with equal edge.
#6 Queens at #3 Florida Gulf Coast, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Line: FGCU -4.5 , Over/Under: 147.5
The Pick: $15 on FGCU -4.5 (-110)
There’s meaningful history here, as Queens has eliminated FGCU in the first round of the conference tournament each of the last two years, but the data points to the Eagles finally getting their revenge tonight. FGCU allows the 17th fewest shots at the rim in Division I, rebounds strongly, and defends well around the hoop while slowing opponents to a crawl, letting their potent half-court attack (second best in the ASun per ShotQuality) operate effectively. The Eagles defend transition exceptionally well and keep opponents out of running situations at the conference’s best rate, giving this game serious blowout potential against a Queens squad that will be forced into contested three point attempts. Queens will need to capitalize on the few open looks they get to keep pace with FGCU’s methodical but efficient offense. On their notoriously beautiful home campus in Fort Myers and with my projected line exceeding two possessions, take the Eagles to cover and advance.
