Welcome back to Daily Best Bets, where I give you my top picks for that night’s games in college basketball. As always, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
We are 20-13-1 and +$66 so far in Hoops HQ betting articles. Today, I bring you another mid-major trio to end the week as we prepare for a massive, penultimate regular-season Saturday. Betting lines are from the time of publication.
Good luck and remember to bet responsibly!
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Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan, 6 p.m., CBSSN
Line: C. Michigan -2 , Over/Under: 148
The Pick: $15 on Eastern Michigan +2 (-115)
Eastern Michigan brings an efficient transition attack to the table, running the fourth-most transition plays in the MAC while displaying expected efficiency both from three-point range and at the rim. The Eagles have been somewhat unlucky this season, underperforming their expected three-point percentage by two percent and their rim finishing by one-and-a-half percent, making this a potential buy-low spot. Coming off a seven-point home loss to Bowling Green that ShotQuality expected to be a four-point win, Eastern Michigan appears undervalued heading into this matchup. Central Michigan, meanwhile, has been riding a wave of shooting luck in conference play, connecting on 33 percent from behind the arc while expected to shoot just 30 percent, per ShotQuality, and finishing at a 56 percent clip at the rim against an expected 54 percent. The Chippewas’ propensity for mid-range attempts combined with their potential shooting regression makes them an ideal fade candidate as they go on the road against their in-state rivals.
Brown at Harvard, 5 p.m., ESPN+
Line: Harvard -1 , Over/Under: 141.5
The Pick: $15 on Harvard -1.5 (-102)
Harvard hosts Brown, which is riding momentum from wins in three of its last four contests, facing a spread that suggests Brown might be the superior team. The visitors’ defensive metrics have been artificially inflated by unsustainable mid-range defense, allowing opponents to connect on just 36 percent while ShotQuality expects that figure to regress toward 44 percent. This creates the perfect storm for Harvard, which takes the highest percentage of mid-range shots in the Ivy at 19 percent and is expected to be shooting five percent better on the dreaded “middies” than it is. The Crimson’s defense is simultaneously expected to improve while Brown’s is projected to decline, creating what I call an “SQ spot” where regression points in favor of one bet from both ends of the floor. With both teams’ advanced metrics pointing toward a mid-range X-factor that favors Harvard, back the home team to cover this slight spread.
Marist at Sacred Heart, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Line: Sacred Heart -1 , Over/Under: 144
The Pick: $15 on SHU -1 (-110)
Sacred Heart welcomes Marist in a classic matchup between a down-on-its-luck home team and a fortunate visitor, creating the exact scenario my strategy targets. The Pioneers employ a strong passing attack that creates good spacing and generates plenty of three-point attempts, while excelling in transition and finishing efficiently at the rim (58 percent). Their defensive vulnerabilities—allowing too many shots at the rim and from three—are concerning, but their halfcourt and transition effectiveness should prove decisive against Marist’s plodding pace. The Red Foxes have benefited from opponents shooting just 31 percent on mid-range attempts, while Sacred Heart connects at a 41 percent clip from those same areas in conference play. Marist enters this game having won its last two road games at Merrimack and Siena on shot-profiled that point towards losses, suggesting it’s due for regression away from home. Meanwhile, the Pioneers should blitz their visitors in the comfortable confines of Fairfield, exploiting their mid-range advantage to create a better-than-priced chance to secure a straight-up win as slight home underdogs.
