Seven games. That’s all we have left.
And savor them all we shall.
The Saturday slate looks chalky to us. You can overthink things and get carried away with the numbers, but this deep in the tournament, it’s pretty easy to see which teams truly are the best one or two in the country and the ones who have overachieved a bit to reach this stage. You also don’t want to force things and chase because we know the show is almost over and time is, indeed, running out to enjoy these games and bet these games.
We do have three plays we really like, and we’ll give you another lean as well. Sometimes the simplest bets are the best bets, and a simple ML parlay is among what stands out to us on this Elite Eight Saturday.
Purdue/Arizona – Arizona -6 (-115, Bet365)
All of the analytical sites we reference on a daily basis from November through March are pointing to this being a two- to four-point game. And we understand why the metrics would indicate as much, especially those that weight recency more heavily, as the Boilers have been red hot down the stretch. But they also haven’t been tested nearly as much as some other teams in this tournament and Arizona, to us, is just on a different level than anyone else and that is why we pounced on them at +400 when this field was set. Too much length and too much scoring and too much balance and too much defense. Purdue point guard Braden Smith’s size has become more of an issue deeper in the tourney and he’s having trouble finishing. Let’s be real: Queens, Miami and Texas ain’t exactly Murderer’s Row and the Boilermakers were lucky to get by Texas. The Wildcats are even hotter than Purdue, with 12 consecutive wins, and 10 of those 12 are by at least seven points. This team has won 30 games since Thanksgiving and 27 are by at least seven points. They don’t do a lot of one- and two-possession games and we believe they can distance themselves from Purdue.
Arizona + Illinois (-115, Fanatics)
We aren’t fading Iowa anymore. Heck, one of us had Clemson beating them in the first round. At this point, we aren’t laying any points at all. Coach Ben McCollum is too savvy and the Hawkeyes play too hard. But Illinois has too much, and having to run through yet another conference opponent probably won’t benefit the Hawkeyes here. When Iowa had to play the true cream of the Big Ten this season – Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue and Illinois (the teams still alive heading into the Sweet Sixteen) – its record was hard to ignore at a time like this. The Hawkeyes went 0-5. They could keep some of them close, but close ain’t good enough. Illinois’ defense is night and day from a year ago. After beating Florida the way the Hawkeyes did, we can’t dismiss them. We also cannot pick them to beat Illinois on a neutral court.
Iowa/Illinois O 137.5 (-110, almost everywhere)
This is the lowest total by far for Illinois all season. Their previous low? It was 141 from their regular-season game with Iowa, and that produced 144 points. The data sites we trust so much all see this game going over this total – Ken Pom (145), Haslamatics (141), Torvik (143) and Greg Peterson (139). When the total was between 134.5 and 139.5 this season, Iowa is 7-0 to the over. Iowa has scored at least 72 points in nine of its past 10 games, and we know Illinois is going to score a helluva lot more than the 65 they put up against Houston on Thursday night. Iowa is over in four of its past six games. Iowa is 17-9 to the other this season vs. Big 10 opponents (in conference play, conference tourney play and NCAA tourney play). Illinois is 13-9 to the over in those games. We expect enough tempo and enough three-pointers to get us home and probably a game close enough for late-game foul shots to help get us there, too.
Meet your guides
