Welcome to another edition of the Hoops HQ Fast Break, where we ask our tandem of experts a series of questions about the college basketball world. Andy Katz and Seth Davis are locked and loaded with their hot takes. Lace ’em up and let’s roll.
Q: It wasn’t that long ago that things were so bad with the Tar Heels — after getting swept in the Bay Area by Cal and Stanford — that we had people talking about whether Hubert Davis could even survive the season. They haven’t lost since, and they just beat their rival Duke. Do you believe that North Carolina has officially turned things around?
Andy Katz: Yes. And first of all, they also lost to SMU, so they sort of lost to all the newbies. I never thought they were going to make a change like that (with Davis). He’s one of their own. I could never see that happening. Not with Roy, by the way. Roy Williams is there, bucket hat and all. He’s got a presence. I never believed that to be the case. Let’s put that aside.
Number two, this wasn’t about and isn’t about them catching Duke for the ACC title. It’s about them getting into the NCAA Tournament and getting right at the right time. Seth Trimble was out for a significant amount of time with that weird weightlifting mishap. Caleb Wilson’s still getting comfortable. The pieces were still finding time to fit together. They have. They obviously got off to a slow start, but they made a great comeback. Regardless of what happens in Miami, I’m not worried about them. I think they’re going to be in the NCAA Tournament. I think they will have a single-digit seed. I don’t know if they’re wearing white or blue yet, but I think they’re going to be in. And once they get in, they could be trouble.
Seth Davis: Yeah, I agree with all of that. Caleb Wilson obviously was fantastic again. The big change since that performance in the Bay Area is at point guard, where Hubert Davis promoted the freshman Derek Dixon into the starting lineup. Kyan Evans only played six minutes against Duke. Dixon hit those two big three pointers. Remember, he also hit a couple of big shots when they beat Kentucky early in the season. He doesn’t have to be great, but he does have to be serviceable. And I think that he’s gaining confidence. That was a big-time change.
Q: After the game, you had not one, but two court storms because they had to put time back on the clock. Jon Scheyer had some things to say afterwards about it. How do you feel about the whole court storm situation?
Katz: I’ve been a part of this for over 20 years. And on Feb. 7, it was the anniversary of one of the most famous court storms that I was involved with, when Nick Robinson of Stanford hit a three-pointer at the buzzer to beat Arizona at Maples Pavilion. Famously, Jim Plunkett’s wife actually had a folding chair clip her leg. Tiger Woods was there with his then-girlfriend who became his wife. It was a who’s who and it was a crazy scene. I was in the middle of that one.
I had one with Clemson and North Carolina where I got swallowed up. Last week, I got swallowed up at Minnesota when they stormed after beating Michigan State. Here’s the deal. I love the atmosphere. I love the euphoria. But unequivocally, there have to be two lines — not one, because one’s not good enough — to allow the opposing players, coaches, staff and officials to get off the court. And this may sound ageist, but I’ve been at these arenas for decades. The people running security are too old. They are too slow. It’s not your best and brightest. I’m sorry, that’s the truth. A lot of them are volunteers. They’re doing this as a side gig, maybe a retirement job. That’s not who should be out there. You should be dead sprinting. You should have young people — probably students — whose job is to run out and protect the opposing players, coaches and officials. It’s ridiculous how slow it takes these people. I do like the enthusiasm and I don’t want to be a Debbie Downer, but that has to happen first. I’m fine with the fines because they’re not getting the job done. It’s the wrong people trying to secure those people.
Davis: When guys our age are calling other people old, that’s kind of a big statement. But that’s the reality — they need to be fit.
I have a very basic principle, which is that the players, the officials and the coaches have earned the right to be on that court. The fans have not. And I think we’re very fortunate that really bad things haven’t happened already. So I’m of the mind to allow for the court storms, but it is incumbent upon the home university to protect those players and coaches. Jon Scheyer said one of his staff members got punched in the face. I don’t think that happened, but we saw the video of somebody throwing a water bottle and somebody getting hit. I think that’s what he was reacting to. And it shouldn’t matter. They should feel safe being able to get off the court. And the fact that North Carolina was not ready for that situation to me was unconscionable. Good on the ACC for fining them. If we want to get rid of court storms, the fines should be a lot bigger. And believe me, once you hit these places in the pocketbook, they will eliminate the court storms.
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Q: Speaking of court storms, Andy, you were there in Minnesota when they beat Michigan State. There was a moment in Michigan State’s win over Illinois on Saturday where Brad Underwood asked for an appeal for a Jeremy Fears trip. Is this going to be a problem for Fears and MSU moving forward?
Katz: Unfortunately, yes, because as I saw it in practice on the day of that game, it was discussed. Nico Medved knew about it. And so every Big Ten coach is going to remind the officials, hey, watch out for him. We’ll see what will happen in the NCAA Tournament. But I think for the rest of the Big Ten season, he’s going to really have to watch it because the officials are going to be looking to see if he does anything and are going to be quick to review it the rest of the season and in the Big Ten Tournament.
Davis: Give credit to Dusty May for bringing everyone’s attention to this. There’s a heightened awareness about this. Keep in mind that when they looked at the play in the Illinois game, it was because Brad Underwood requested the appeal. The call was not overturned. Fears was not given an F1 and therefore Illinois lost a timeout. So these other coaches better be careful about putting too much attention on this.
Q: The BYU Cougars, who were cruising along at 16-1 and 4-1 in the Big 12, have now lost five of their last six games, including a pretty bad one at Oklahoma State. How concerned are you about the Cougars?
Katz: I am concerned, and I dropped them out of my Top 25. I kept them at the back end of my 37, which is 37 at-large bids. Look, it’s four losses all against Big 12 schools. All of them except for the Oklahoma State game, which was on the road, were against teams that could compete for the national championship. So I’m not raising the red flag because the schedule was brutal. Now let’s see, can they take care of business going forward when they get to the rest of the Big 12 in the next couple of weeks? We’ll see.
Davis: Yeah, the schedule is brutal, but the reality is they didn’t play like a super tough nonconference schedule. And I think now they’re being exposed, especially on the defensive end. They’re just not a very good defensive team, and that’s going to be a big-time problem moving forward. They’re probably not as good as we thought. Dybantsa has been great. He needs more help.
Q: We have a couple of mid-majors who have been climbing up the rankings in St. Louis and Miami of Ohio, who as of this taping is still undefeated. Do you think that those teams can get at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament should they fail to win their conference tournaments?
Katz: Well, all things are not created equal and these schools aren’t equal. Let’s take Miami of Ohio first. Travis Steele says he tried to play anyone, but that can’t be true because there are plenty of schools that would have taken them on a one-way and just paid the money. This used to be the case with St. Mary’s, Utah State, where they would never do it and then they finally got the message. So they didn’t play any Power Four, period. If they lose in the final of the MAC, so one loss, I think they get in. But if they lose another time — that would be two MAC losses, because that’s all they play the rest of the way — unfortunately I don’t think they do. The metrics are not there. It’s unfortunate, but that’s the pressure they’re under right now.
St. Louis played one Power Four school in Stanford, and lost late. Again, not a good schedule. But with St. Louis, the metrics are much better, and I think they can afford a regular-season loss — one — and then maybe a semi-final or final loss for the second. So that would be three total. I think that’s their max to get in as an at-large.
Davis: Yeah, I agree. Both of these teams did not play very good nonconference schedules. St. Louis has at least played two Quad 1 games so far — their league helps. They’re 2-0. Miami of Ohio has not even played a Quad 1 game, so their 0-0 in Quad 1, only 2-0 in Quad 2 and they have no Quad 1 or Quad 2 games remaining. The bar for them to get an at-large is very high. If they go the distance, go to the MAC final and lose, they’ll get in more because of optics than anything else. I think they’ll probably deserve to get in and will get in, but it’ll be one of the most fascinating bubble conversations that we’ve had in a long, long time. That’s the time of year we’re in, folks.
Katz: Just a historical note, the MAC has not received two bids since 1999.
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