We all just experienced a great weekend of college basketball. There were a number of instances where we actually thought we could see movement on the No. 1 seed line, but that ended up not being the case. On Friday night, St. John’s defeated UConn 81-72 in what was an exhilarating environment at Madison Square Garden. UConn was the fourth overall No. 1 seed heading into this game, so a loss made the Huskies susceptible to dropping off that line. Duke was the other No. 1 seed to experience a loss this weekend as the Blue Devils fell on a buzzer beater by Seth Trimble and North Carolina. Duke remains ahead of UConn overall as these two teams continue to battle to see who can be the No. 1 seed in the East region.
Illinois was the prime candidate to jump onto the No. 1 seed line (even though it lost to UConn earlier in the season), but the Fighting Illini lost a tough one at Michigan State. It would have been their third monster road win of the season which is why the potential was there for a seed jump. However, it did not happen and another week goes by with the top seeds remaining unchanged. Houston won at BYU, so the Cougars crept closer to becoming a top seed. The glaring difference with Houston’s resume and the other No. 1 seeds is the fact that the Cougars only have one win against Quad 1A opponents, while Arizona (4), Michigan (3), Duke (4), UConn (4) and Illinois (5) all have a considerably more quantity of wins of this nature.
Here are a few thoughts regarding today’s bracket:
- Florida continues to play at an elite level. The Gators won handily at Texas A&M and have moved into the top 10 across the board in predictive metrics. As a result, they jumped Gonzaga to move onto the No. 3 seed line. A No. 1 seed is probably a long shot at this point, but eventually becoming a 2-seed is a real possibility.
- Sticking with the SEC, Vanderbilt had a surprising home loss to Oklahoma on Saturday. The Commodores have lost four of seven and continue to trend in the wrong direction. They are now a 4-seed and head to Auburn on Tuesday.
- BYU continues to reel as it lost at home to Houston on Saturday. That’s now four losses in a row and five losses in last six games. In a span of three weeks, BYU dropped from a No. 3 seed all the way down to a No. 6 seed. Its best win in Big 12 play came at home against TCU. Not good enough.
- NC State just keeps winning. The Wolfpack have won six in a row and eight of their last nine after defeating Virginia Tech 82-73 on Saturday. They also have 11 wins (11-5) against Q1 and Q2 opponents which is a strong number. NC State is a No. 7 seed for me right now and a win at Louisville on Monday night will surely improve its seed even more.
- New Mexico dropped out of the field after suffering two home losses this week to Utah State and Boise State. The Lobos get another crack at Utah State the last game of the regular season and they may need to win that in order to feel good about their chances of receiving an at-large bid. As it stands right now, the Lobos SOR (58) and WAB (52) are both not quite good enough. Couple that with also having zero wins against likely at-large teams and there’s really little margin for error for New Mexico moving forward.
- Alabama picked up a nice road win at Auburn to improve to 6-6 versus Q1 opponents and 11-7 against Q1 and Q2. As a result of this victory, the Crimson Tide jumps back in to being a top four seed. Sporting a WAB ranking of No. 12, they also hold wins over Illinois, Clemson, Kentucky, Texas A&M and at St. John’s. There’s no doubt that Alabama will be a high ceiling team in the NCAA Tournament.
Last 4 Byes
USC, Indiana, St. Mary’s, Texas
Last 4 In
UCLA, California, Missouri, Oklahoma State
First 4 Out
Miami FL, Ohio State, New Mexico, Virginia Tech
Next 4 Out
TCU, VCU, San Diego State, Seton Hall
Bracketology
Morgan State Bears
Merrimack Warriors
California Golden Bears
Missouri Tigers
NJIT Highlanders
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
UCLA Bruins
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Michigan Wolverines
Long Island Sharks
Auburn Tigers
UCF Knights
North Carolina Tar Heels
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Clemson Tigers
UCLA Bruins
/
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Florida Gators
North Dakota State Bison
Saint Louis Billikens
Indiana Hoosiers
Iowa State Cyclones
Navy Midshipmen
UConn Huskies
UT Martin Skyhawks
Texas A&M Aggies
SMU Mustangs
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Belmont Bruins
Alabama Crimson Tide
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Kentucky Wildcats
Santa Clara Broncos
Purdue Boilermakers
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Villanova Wildcats
USC Trojans
Houston Cougars
Austin Peay Governors
Arizona Wildcats
Morgan State Bears
/
Merrimack Warriors
Iowa Hawkeyes
Georgia Bulldogs
Tennessee Volunteers
Yale Bulldogs
Virginia Cavaliers
High Point Panthers
Arkansas Razorbacks
Miami Ohio Red Hawks
Kansas Jayhawks
Wright State Raiders
NC State Wolfpack
Saint Mary's Gaels
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Portland State Vikings
Duke Blue Devils
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
/
NJIT Highlanders
Utah State Aggies
Wisconsin Badgers
St. John's Red Storm
Liberty Flames
Vanderbilt Commodores
California Baptist Lancers
BYU Cougars
Missouri Tigers
/
California Golden Bears
Michigan State Spartans
Troy Trojans
Louisville Cardinals
Texas Longhorns
Illinois Fighting Illini
Charleston Cougars
Bids by Conference
| Conference | No. of Bids |
|---|---|
| SEC | 11 |
| Big Ten | 10 |
| ACC | 8 |
| Big 12 | 8 |
| Big East | 3 |
| WCC | 2 |
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