I’m a college football fan, so I am bummed that there is only one game left in the season. Our younger readers may have heard about a not-so-long-ago era in which there was no playoff in that sport. Rather, the champions were decided by two polls — one conducted by writers, the other by coaches. Whichever team was ranked No. 1 in the final polls was declared national champion. And if the two polls came to different conclusions, the championship was “shared.” Can you imagine?
Over here in Hoopland, of course, we long-ago determined what every other sport around the planet had likewise decided: The championship should be won or lost in the arena. That will happen again, blessedly, in a little over two months, but in the meantime we’ve got a regular season to complete.
The heat on that season turned up in January when college hoops transitioned to full-fledged conference play, and will continue this weekend. I am hoping to start a similar hot streak with my picks against the spread as I am still trying to climb my way out the deep hole I dug for myself over the first two months. No time like the present!
Here are my picks against the spread for Saturday’s top five games.
Nebraska at Indiana
Seth’s Analysis
The Huskers are the best story in college basketball, having just extended their nation’s-longest unbeaten streak to 19 games (15 this season plus four in the College Basketball Crown last March). The last was a 62-59 squeaker at Ohio State, during which Nebraska’s bench outscored the Buckeyes’ reserves 22-0. The Huskers also own a three-point win at Illinois and a two-point escape at home over Michigan State. Is it time for their magic to run out? Indiana would not seem a likely candidate to hand Nebraska its first loss. The Hoosiers have just two top-100 wins, most recently by 84-66 at Maryland. Senior guard Tucker DeVries has struggled of late, combining for 11 points on 5 of 14 shooting in recent wins over Washington and Maryland. I think he’s ready to break out. The Hoosiers aren’t real tough up front, but they’ve been playing some pretty good defense. They’re No. 28 on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency, No. 9 in effective field goal defense, and No. 11 in three-point D. They are also the oldest team in the country. If this were a seven-game series, I’d pick the Huskers in five, but Nebraska is due for a clunker, and I believe the Hoosiers are ready to give the Huskers their best shot.
Houston at Baylor
Seth’s Analysis
I wonder if Scott Drew’s signing of 7-foot center James Nnaji would have produced such a histrionic reaction if people knew he was going to have a combined 7 points and 9 rebounds in his first two games. There’s a reason Nnaji did not play in the NBA, and though he will likely develop into a valuable piece for Baylor, the reality is this squad is lacking, shall we say, a certain physicality. That was evident when they scored 63 and 60 points, respectively, in their losses to TCU and Iowa State. Houston is not a team you want to face if you have such problems. The Cougars rank no. 7 on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency, No. 16 in steals percentage, No. 20 in offensive rebound percentage and No. 352 in tempo. They’re not afraid of a rock fight, as evidenced by their recent wins over Cincinnati (67-60) and Texas Tech (69-65). But this team also has a dynamic perimeter trio in 6-foot-4 freshman Kingston Flemings, 6-foot-4 senior Milos Uzan and 6-foot-3 Emanuel Sharp. In other words, this is a team that’s built to win on the road.
St. John’s at Creighton
Seth’s Analysis
Sports parents everywhere (and their kids) should pay heed to the story of Austin Swartz’s season at Creighton. The 6-foot-4 sophomore transfer from Miami was slow out of the gate for the Bluejays, averaging 1.3 points in 12.5 minutes per game over the first six games. It took him a while to become an “everyday guy” and earn Greg McDermott’s trust, but once he earned it, he never lost it. After Swatz scored 16 points in a 21-point loss at Nebraska on Dec. 7, McDermott entered him into the starting lineup. Over the last seven games, Swartz is averaging 17.9 points on 45.2 percent shooting. That includes a 20-point effort in Wednesday’s 76-72 huge win at Villanova, the Bluejays’ fifth win in their last six games. St. John’s bounced back nicely from its disappointing home loss to Providence by beating Butler, 84-70, in Hinkle Fieldhouse behind a combined 35 points from Zuby Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins. But Creighton has found another gear defensively the last few weeks, and I don’t think the Red Storm has enough perimeter firepower to win this kind of game on the road.
SMU at Duke
Seth’s Analysis
Last year at this time, the big question about the Blue Devils was whether anyone in the ACC would challenge them. Now the question is whether they’re going to start dominating teams again. Setting aside blowouts over overmatched Howard and Lipscomb, Duke’s last five wins have come by an average of 5.6 points, and it lost 82-81 to Texas Tech in Madison Square Garden on Dec. 20. That includes closer-than-they-should-have-been wins over Georgia Tech (home) and Florida State (road). There’s much to be said for figuring out a way to win close games (last year’s squad failed to do that against Houston in the Final Four), but there’s also much to be said for kicking into higher gear. A return to Cameron should help, but SMU won’t be easy to blow out. The Mustangs followed up their 14-point pasting of North Carolina at home by fighting a good Clemson team on the road before succumbing 74-70 on Wednesday. They have a high-powered offense orchestrated by gifted senior point guard Boopie Miller, who had 27 points, 12 assists and 2 turnovers in that win over the Tar Heels. Duke’s defense has been suspect enough of late that Jon Scheyer has been playing a lot of zone. Beating Duke in Cameron takes some doing, but I do think the Mustangs are ready to put up a fight.
Arkansas at Auburn
Seth’s Analysis
Auburn has had no shortage of drama of late. On Jan. 3, the Tigers were down by four points with 0.7 seconds to play at Georgia and still managed to force overtime, where they lost 104-100. Three days later, they appeared to have beaten Texas A&M at home on a 35-foot buzzer beater from KeShawn Murphy, only to have officials wave it off following a lengthy replay review. (It was super duper close, but I think the zebras got it right.) Now Auburn has to regroup for an Arkansas squad that is brimming with confidence following wins over Tennessee and at Ole Miss. Razorbacks freshman point guard Darius Acuff Jr. is playing like a bona fide All-American, putting up a combined 55 points (19 of 21 from the foul line), 13 assists and 3 steals in those wins. Arkansas is better, but Auburn is a desperate home team, and I like that the Tigers are favored by a point on KenPom.
This season: 14-26
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