Bracketology 2026: Men’s NCAA Tournament Projections

Even though we learned so much from the top-16 reveal, a lot happened on the court that changed things. First off, Duke beat Michigan on a neutral court, which means the Blue Devils are now the overall No. 1 seed. Iowa State, Houston and Illinois all lost, while UConn won at Villanova. Because of this, the Huskies jumped Iowa State to take the final No. 1 seed for now.

Other interesting results on Saturday that affected the top 16 teams were Kansas getting upset at home by Cincinnati, Tennessee winning at Vanderbilt and Texas Tech dominating Kansas State in its first game without JT Toppin.

Here are some thoughts regarding today’s bracket:

• Auburn came up with a significant win against Kentucky on Saturday, which elevated the Tigers to a No. 10 seed. A loss would have dropped them to just one game over .500 and no team has ever received an at-large bid while being one game over. Auburn doesn’t even need quality wins; it just needs wins. The Tigers are now 15-12 overall and will probably get an at-large bid with two more victories this season. Their final four games are at Oklahoma, Ole Miss, LSU and at Alabama.
• USC had a head-scratching loss at home to Oregon on Saturday night. This was the Trojans’ second Quad 3 loss of the season and they are now hanging on by a thread for an at-large bid. A major positive on their resume is the fact that they are 9-7 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents. USC also has the No. 46 WAB ranking, which isn’t great, but it’s still currently better than many other bubble teams. The Trojans are now in my last four in.
• UCLA started the day on Saturday as my last team in the field, but it ended the day with one of the biggest wins of the weekend as it upset Illinois 95-94 in overtime. The Bruins also have a big win over Purdue and now find themselves as a No. 10 seed. UCLA has the No. 38 WAB ranking, which puts it safely in the field for the time being.
• What is going on with Clemson? The Tigers have now lost four games in a row after losing at home to Florida State on Saturday. Their No. 41 SOR is getting a bit worrisome and their overall projected seed is dropping at a rapid pace. I have them as a No. 9 seed right now, but their next two games are against Louisville and at North Carolina. Winning one of those games would be ideal. Go 0-2 and things will get messy for Clemson.
• I currently have St. John’s as a No. 5 seed and it’s been on that seed-line for quite some time. Well, the Red Storm have a chance to get off that line this week as they head to UConn on Wednesday. A season sweep over the Huskies would likely lift the Johnnies onto the No. 4 line. The one thing that has really limited their ceiling is the fact that they only have two wins over projected at-large teams and both of those wins came in Big East play.
• Florida continues to play like one of the best teams in the country. The Gators have won seven games in a row and have top-five predictive metrics across the board. I don’t think a No. 1 seed will be in play for this team due to the fact that they don’t have the type of high-end wins needed, but I would be surprised if the Gators don’t end up as a No. 2 seed on Selection Sunday.

Last 4 Byes

UCLA, Saint Mary’s, Texas, Missouri

Last 4 In

Indiana, TCU, Santa Clara, USC

First 4 Out

New Mexico, California, Ohio State, Virginia Tech

Next 4 Out

VCU, West Virginia, San Diego State, Seton Hall

Bracketology

16 Howard Bison

16 Tennessee State Tigers

11 Indiana Hoosiers

11 Santa Clara Broncos

16 UMBC Retrievers

16 Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

11 USC Trojans

11 TCU Horned Frogs

Midwest (Chicago)

Philadelphia

1 Michigan Wolverines

16 Long Island Sharks

8 Utah State Aggies

9 Clemson Tigers

San Diego

5 Arkansas Razorbacks

12 South Florida Bulls

4 Texas Tech Red Raiders

13 Utah Valley Wolverines

Tampa

6 Saint Louis Billikens

11 Missouri Tigers

3 Nebraska Cornhuskers

14 North Dakota State Bison

Oklahoma City

7 NC State Wolfpack

10 UCLA Bruins

2 Houston Cougars

15 Navy Midshipmen

South (Houston)

Philadelphia

1 UConn Huskies

16 Appalachian State Mountaineers

8 Texas A&M Aggies

9 Miami Hurricanes

Buffalo

5 Vanderbilt Commodores

12 Belmont Bruins

4 Kansas Jayhawks

13 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

Buffalo

6 North Carolina Tar Heels

11 Indiana Hoosiers / Santa Clara Broncos

3 Michigan State Spartans

14 East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Oklahoma City

7 Wisconsin Badgers

10 Auburn Tigers

2 Iowa State Cyclones

15 Merrimack Warriors

West (San Jose)

San Diego

1 Arizona Wildcats

16 Howard Bison / Tennessee State Tigers

8 SMU Mustangs

9 Georgia Bulldogs

Greenville

5 Tennessee Volunteers

12 Yale Bulldogs

4 Virginia Cavaliers

13 High Point Panthers

Tampa

6 Louisville Cardinals

11 TCU Horned Frogs / USC Trojans

3 Florida Gators

14 Austin Peay Governors

St. Louis

7 Villanova Wildcats

10 Texas Longhorns

2 Purdue Boilermakers

15 Portland State Vikings

East (Washington, DC)

Greenville

1 Duke Blue Devils

16 Bethune-Cookman Wildcats / UMBC Retrievers

8 Iowa Hawkeyes

9 UCF Knights

Portland

5 St. John's Red Storm

12 Liberty Flames

4 Alabama Crimson Tide

13 UNC Wilmington Seahawks

Portland

6 BYU Cougars

11 Miami Ohio Red Hawks

3 Gonzaga Bulldogs

14 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

St. Louis

7 Kentucky Wildcats

10 Saint Mary's Gaels

2 Illinois Fighting Illini

15 Wright State Raiders

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