Christmas has come early for college basketball fans. The sport will basically shut down over the holiday next week, but not before gifting us with yet another sensational Saturday slate. The first two months have been jam-packed with terrific matchups and stellar play, and yet the most wonderful time of the year is still three months away.
As this will be my last batch of picks for the year 2025, I intend to go out in style. Allow me herewith to stuff your stockings with my picks against the spread for the top five games of the day.
Kentucky vs. St. John’s
Seth’s Analysis
There’s a very big question for Kentucky for this game: Is Jayden Quaintance going to make his season debut? The 6-foot-9 sophomore transfer from Arizona State has been recovering from the torn ACL he suffered in February, but he has practiced with the team this week and is available for this game. That would be great news for a Wildcats squad that is already getting healthier. Jaland Lowe, the 6-foot-3 junior transfer from Pittsburgh, missed five games due to a shoulder injury, but he played the last two games. Alabama transfer Mouhamed Dioubate, a 6-foot-7 junior forward, returned for last week’s Indiana game following a five-game absence due to an ankle sprain. They combined for 27 points and 17 rebounds in the Wildcats’ 72-60 win over the Hoosiers. Kentucky did not play a midweek game, so everyone has had seven days to recover. The question is whether that will be enough to knock off a St. John’s squad that has lost three games against its top competition (Alabama, Iowa State and Auburn), and is thus in dire need of a signature win. The Red Storm are still working to overcome their own deficiencies at point guard, but 6-foot-1 junior Dylan Darling is coming off his best game of the season, a 17-point, 6-rebound, 2-assist outing in Tuesday’s 79-66 home win over DePaul. With both teams struggling from three, this game will be won on the backboards, where the Red Storm’s veteran front line should have an advantage. The storyline of Rick Pitino going up against his former captain is compelling, and I think he’s going to be pleased with the result.
North Carolina vs. Ohio State
Seth’s Analysis
The good news for the Tar Heels is that it appears that 6-foot-3 senior guard Seth Trimble could be making his return after missing the last nine games due to a broken arm. North Carolina only lost one game without him, primarily (but not exclusively) due to the brilliance of freshman forward Caleb Wilson. Trimble is the only returning experienced player on this roster, and he adds critical leadership and stability to the backcourt. Ohio State will have the best guard in the game in 6-foot-2 senior Bruce Thornton, who is averaging 21.8 points (on 50 percent three-point shooting), 5.0 rebounds and 4.4 assists to just 1.3 turnovers. The Buckeyes, however, are vulnerable defensively up front. They rank No. 124 on KenPom in two-point defense (49.7 percent) and No. 327 in block percentage. That will be a big-time problem against Wilson and Henri Veesaar, the 7-foot senior transfer from Arizona who is averaging 16.9 points (on 64.5 percent shooting) and 9.1 rebounds.
Arkansas vs. Houston
Seth’s Analysis
If you like great freshmen — and I know you do — then this is the game for you. Two freshmen (6-foot-4 guard Kingston Flemings and 6-foot-11 center Chris Cenac) start for Houston, and a third (6-foot-6 guard Isiah Harwell) is the sixth man. Arkansas counters with 6-foot-3 guard Darius Acuff Jr., who has been ridiculous of late, averaging 19.8 points and 4.8 assists on 41.7 percent three-point shooting over his last four games, and 6-foot-5 guard Meleek Thomas, who comes off the bench yet is the team’s third-leading scorer. Razorbacks senior forward Trevon Brazile also seems to be breaking out, having scored 50 points over his last two games and shooting 12 of 18 from three over his last four games while also providing stout defense around the rim. Houston is once again stingy on the defensive end, ranking third nationally in points allowed (57.7) and No. 7 on KenPom in adjusted deficiency. The Cougars are also 358th in tempo and, more problematically, 355th in offensive free throw rate. All of which leads me to conclude that Arkansas has a legit chance to win this game, but if not it’s a one-possession game.
Purdue vs. Auburn
Seth’s Analysis
The Boilermakers have bounced back nicely since their pratfall at home against Iowa State, knocking off Minnesota and Marquette by a combined 48 points. They will get a much bigger challenge from an Auburn squad that needs a better showing than the ones it turned in against the other two top-10 teams it has faced, Michigan and Arizona, who fleeced the Tigers by 30 and 19 points, respectively. The key for Auburn, as always is sophomore point guard Tahaad Pettiford, who had 18 points in the Tigers’ 87-69 home win over Purdue last season. He’s exactly the type of speedy guard that Braden Smith has trouble guarding at times. Of course, Pettiford doesn’t have the Johni Broome-quality supporting cast around him this season, but he does have 6-foot-7 senior forward Keyshawn Hall, who is averaging 20.9 points and 8.8 rebounds. It’s hard to pick against Purdue in Indianapolis, but the Tigers are long, deep and athletic, and the Boilermakers don’t quite match up in those categories. If this line were smaller, I’d go with the quasi-home team, but in this case I think the Tigers can at least make it interesting.
Duke vs. Texas Tech
Seth’s Analysis
This is a matchup of two Player of the Year candidates in Duke freshman forward Cameron Boozer and Texas Tech junior forward J.T. Toppin. They are the only two players averaging at least 20 points and 10 rebounds. The question is which one gets more help from his friends. Texas Tech will have the second-best player in the game in 6-foot-2 sophomore guard Christian Anderson, who is averaging 19.3 points, 7.5 assists and 3.5 rebounds per game, but after that there’s quite a dropoff. (Though it should be noted that 6-foot-6 junior guard LeJuan Watts is coming off a career-high 36 points in a win over Northern Colorado Tuesday night.) Jon Scheyer has yet another elite defensive team as the Blue Devils are ranked No. 3 on KenPom in adjusted efficiency and No. 4 in height. Throw in the location in Madison Square Garden, aka Cameron North, where the Blue Devils have won nine straight dating back to 2018, and I envision Duke controlling the game and covering with late free throws.
Last time: 3-2
This season: 12-18
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