It’s a wild time in college hoops with games going on around the clock every day and tournaments being held all over the place.
That presents unique challenges when handicapping games being played in weird gyms and ballrooms, often with only a handful of people in attendance and teams being flown to far flung places as they bond before conference play.
Here are some games we’re paying close attention to.
Duke vs Arkansas (Thursday) – Duke to cover
The Dukies are one blue blood that is most definitely out for blood. They look to us like the best team in the country right now, and we don’t expect them to slow down against a ranked opponent here. Duke has won every game this season by at least 12 points and this is another spot where Cameron Boozer should shine and score 25 points. The Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS this season (heading into Sunday afternoon’s hosting of overwhelmed Howard) and are 26-10 ATS against nonconference foes since 2023. Arkansas is just 14-21 ATS out of conference in that span, and this is a big jump up in caliber of opponent for the Hogs. They played Sparty tough but haven’t faced a team that can score like Duke, and we don’t think they can keep pace here. We anticipate another double-digit victory for the Dukies.
Oklahoma State at Northwestern (Thursday) – Wildcats to cover
So it’s 10:30 p.m. on the East Coast and you are thinking about heading to the fridge for the first leftover sandwich. You want another helping of holiday sports, but you don’t want to watch bad football. So you flip on this one. Well, prepare to be entertained. The Cowboys are putting on a show. How is this for an early season profile – third in KenPom pace and just about top 60 in offensive and defensive ranking. And this Northwestern team looks more agile and athletic than in years past and is off to a great start, too. Neither team has played a very grueling schedule thus far and this is always a weird time for games on campus, with the kids away for Thanksgiving break. But overall, we think Vegas probably hasn’t caught up to what these Wildcats are, and we’ll be looking to grab points here and root on the home team. The Big Ten looks like it might be a helluva gauntlet. The slower team has a better chance to dictate pace and tempo at home. And the more manic team having to play from behind away from home can be problematic.
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Cleveland State at Missouri (Friday) – Over
Cleveland State games are not for the faint of heart. They aren’t for anyone who enjoys defense, either, as the Vikings’ games are averaging 170 points this season. It’s weird, man. They played Kent State twice already – yeah, they played the same out of conference opponent twice in the span of two weeks – and those games totaled 197 and 162 points; Cleveland State mustered just 25 points in the first half of the second meeting and it still nearly reached our projected total of 167. This is a strange 2 p.m. tip time at Missouri. Cleveland State has allowed at least 90 points in every loss this season. The Tigers have scored at least 83 points in every game they have played and topped 100 points twice already.
Elon vs Mercer (Saturday) – Over
Elon was an up and down team in the CAA a year ago, but they did have a backcourt that could heat it up from behind the arc. And it’s still early, and they haven’t exactly played the country’s toughest schedule, but the 2025-26 Phoenix are again shooting nearly 40 percent from three-point land, and Mercer is playing pinball basketball as well. Every Elon game this season against D-I opponents has produced at least 171 points and they are going over by margin – 38.5, 29.5, 24.5, 6.5. Oh, Winthrop hung 105 on Mercer, and Mercer games have been going over by double digits lately. They play with real pace – top 60 in the country – and Elon looks like a bottom-20 defensive team. Those are the kind of combinations we are looking for when we hunt early overs and look for lines to jump when they populate.
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