Good news, America. Your favorite prognosticator is back to deliver another season of his precious prescience.
When we last heard from our hero, he was picking Florida to cover a one-and-a-half-point spread against Houston in the NCAA championship game. Final score: Florida 65, Houston 63. Money! That pick ended my season record against the spread at 88-76-3. If you were smart enough to follow my advice all season, it’s only fair that you should name the new wing of your house after me.
As I’ve already indicated, this season Hoops HQ is stepping up our gaming game. Not only am I going to be publishing picks columns more frequently, but we have added the powerful Wanna Bet? tandem of Jason La Canfora and Ben Hall. They published another futures column today. Justin Perry from ShotQuality is also going to be contributing for us again this season. So keep it right here, and your bank account will thank us.
Here are my picks for today’s top five games. All times ET. Good luck!
Western Carolina at Duke
Seth’s Analysis
The Blue Devils are suffering from a bit of a Cooper Flagg hangover, but Cameron Boozer is a pretty good cure. The 6-foot-9 freshman forward was scoreless in the first half of Duke’s game against Texas Wednesday night, but he erupted for 15 points in the second and finished with 12 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals in the Blue Devils’ 75-60 win. Duke also got 23 points on 4 of 8 three-point shooting from sophomore guard Isaiah Evans, who could emerge as a critical outside to Boozer’s inside. The Catamounts are coming off an 8-22 season and got blitzed by 31 at Cincinnati on Monday night, so Duke should have an easy time of it — too easy, in my opinion. KenPom had Duke favored by 27. This one has back door cover written all over it.
Alabama at St. John’s
Seth’s Analysis
The St. John’s point guard drama (or should I say, lack-of-point-guard drama) is going to be quite the soap opera this season, but an answer may be emerging in 6-foot-2 senior Dylan Darling, a transfer from Idaho State who dished a team-high 6 assists in Monday’s 108-74 pasting of Quinnipiac. Alabama has no such issue because the man running the show in the wake of Mark Sears’ graduation is sophomore point guard Labaron Philon. He looked solid in his first game Monday night, putting up a career-high 22 points to go along with 8 assists and 3 rebounds in the Crimson Tide’s 91-62 win over North Dakota. Alabama, however, had to play that game without projected starters 6-foot-1 junior guard Aden Holloway (wrist), 6-foot-3 senior guard Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (finger) and 6-foot-5 sophomore guard Jalil Bethea (foot), as well as backup 6-foot-10 sophomore forward Keitenn Bristow (ankle). Holloway and Wrightsell are likely to play against the Red Storm, but the other two will not. That’s a lot of disruption to overcome, so I’ll take St. John’s to cover.
Virginia Tech vs. Providence
Seth’s Analysis
The Friars put up 89 points — their highest-ever total in a season opener — in their win over Holy Cross Monday night. They have a lot of older players but were led in scoring by a pair of freshmen in 6-foot-7 guard Stefan Valks (19 points) and 6-foot-6 forward Jamier Jones (16). The Hokies, who were picked to finish 12th in the ACC preseason poll, have a much-heralded newcomer of their own in 6-foot-9 point guard Neoklis Avdalas. He did not shoot well (3 of 13) in the season opening win over Charleston Southern, but he had 9 assists to just 1 turnover. This is a big season for Friars coach Kim English, whose 10 newcomers includes 6-foot-1 senior point guard Jason Edwards, a transfer from Vanderbilt who had 11 points and 1 assist against Holy Cross. I’ll take the Friars to cover in this quasi-home game, but both teams should expect a much more competitive game than they played Monday night.
Arkansas at Michigan State
Seth’s Analysis
If this is the Season of the Freshman, then the Razorbacks are going to have double the fun behind Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas. The two combined for 43 points, 11 assists and 3 turnovers in Monday’s 109-77 win over Southern. Acuff is a Detroit native who grew up a Michigan fan, so he’ll be triply motivated to leave the Breslin Center a winner. Michigan State looked a little sluggish against Colgate Monday night before finally pulling away for an 80-69 win. The Spartans shot just 6 for 21 from three-point range and allowed the Red Raiders to shoot 47.4 percent. Arkansas also dominated two really good teams in Cincinnati and Memphis during exhibition play, so I expect they’ll come in plenty prepared and sharp. I might even suggest you look for a moneyline play here.
Oklahoma at Gonzaga
Seth’s Analysis
Gonzaga to the Final Four (+1000) was one of my top futures bets for the season, and the Zags looked the part in dominating Texas Southern 98-43 on Monday night. Tyon Grant-Foster, the 6-foot-7 senior transfer from Grand Canyon who won his eligibility on Oct. 27 via a court injunction, had a team-high 15 points. Gonzaga will obviously face tougher competition against an Oklahoma team that notched a one-point win over Wisconsin during exhibition play and coasted to an easy 102-66 win over Saint Francis Monday night. Eight of the 10 players who took the court for the Sooners Monday night are new, so it will be some time before this team hits its stride. Still, Porter Moser did a good job recruiting the transfer portal and his starting lineup features three seniors and a junior. I think the Sooners will find a way to make this thing competitive.
