Welcome to another edition of The Hoops HQ Fast Break, where we ask our panel of experts a series of questions for them to answer on the run. Today, we’ve got Alex Squadron, Chris Dortch, Fran Fraschilla and Hoops HQ Editor-in-Chief Seth Davis with us. We’ll be tackling Cooper Flagg’s remarkable season, Iowa State’s rise to No. 2 in the country, Michigan State’s potential and more. Let’s dive in:
Let’s start with what has obviously been a huge topic in college basketball this season, and that’s Cooper Flagg. Specifically, whether Flagg has overtaken Johni Broome in the National Player of the Year race? And we had all built a narrative that you can’t win a title relying heavily on freshmen. Is Flagg going to prove us wrong?
DAVIS: First of all, it’s amazing that Flagg came into the season with so much hype and might actually be exceeding it. The POY race definitely is getting more interesting, not only with Flagg putting up video game numbers but also with Broome going down with an ankle injury. Even if Broome were healthy, I would give the slight edge to Flagg. And yes, anyone who thinks Duke is too young to win a title is fooling themselves — partly because the Blue Devils aren’t as young as people think. They have two players in their rotation who are returning vets and Jon Scheyer added two seniors and a junior in the portal who are getting major minutes. In other words, they are a perfect mix of old, young and talented, and no one on this team, or in the country, is more talented than Flagg.
SQUADRON: Yes, I believe Flagg has overtaken Broome in the POY race. Broome has been sidelined by an ankle injury and Flagg’s last month has been ridiculous. It isn’t just the big scoring performances, the freshman can dominate a game in so many different ways. He currently leads his team in every major statistical category. And I definitely think the Blue Devils could win the title despite three of their key players being freshmen, mainly because of their commitment to the defensive end. With elite size and length (this is the second tallest roster in Division I, per KenPom), Duke is holding opponents to just 59.4 points per game, which ranks sixth in the country.
DORTCH: I’ve never thought winning a championship with a freshman-laden team couldn’t be done — I saw the 2012 Kentucky team play a lot — but obviously given the choice between a talented young team and a talented older team, you’d take the latter. With the portal, no program has to overly rely on freshmen, and Jon Scheyer and his staff have done a great job of continuing to recruit five-star players while mixing in transfers like Mason Gillis (formerly of Purdue) and Sion James (Tulane). There are even returning players recruited as freshmen, like Tyrese Proctor. Duke is one of eight to 10 teams that could win it all. As for Flagg, he gets better every game, and Broome is out with an ankle injury. He has every opportunity to slip past Broome for national POY honors.
FRASCHILLA: The Broome-Flagg race for National Player of the Year was certainly leaning in the Auburn senior’s direction. But two things have happened to change that narrative. Broome is out indefinitely, although he should be back soon. And Cooper Flagg is playing like the National Player of the Year. Assuming that Broome is back soon and performing at the level he has displayed, I believe we will now have a race to the finish. How each team finishes the season could be the tie-breaker.

Very quietly Iowa State has risen to No. 2 in the country with its only loss by two points to Auburn at the Maui Invitational. How good is this team and how has T.J. Otzelberger built such a consistently winning program there?
DAVIS: This is Otzelberger’s fourth season in Ames. The year before he got there, the Cyclones won a total of two games. Two! Not only is he winning big, but he’s doing it with guys who were not highly-ranked recruits coming out of high school. His teams have always been great defensively, but this is by far the best offensive team he has coached (No. 8 in adjusted efficiency per KenPom). That may change with Milan Momcilovic being injured, but it sure didn’t seem to hold the Cyclones back in their win over Kansas Wednesday night. Otzelberger is a great example of a perfect fit between a coach and a program. He knows exactly the type of player who can thrive there, and how to coach him. It would not shock me in the least to see him with a net in his hand on April 7.
SQUADRON: This team is clearly a contender to win the national title. Otzelberger has built a powerhouse by bringing in players who perfectly fit his defensive-minded system. Since he took over the program in 2021, Iowa State has ranked fifth, eighth and first in defensive rating, per KenPom. The difference this season? The offense has taken a major step forward. Iowa State is currently averaging 85.4 points per game (14th in Division I) while shooting 49.5 percent from the field.
DORTCH: Iowa State is rated in the top eight of Ken Pomeroy’s offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. The Cyclones are also 22nd in the country in Division I experience (2.81 years per man). That pretty much tells the story. Otzelberger knows teams have to be balanced offensively and defensively and he knows that in a league like the Big 12, you can’t do it with 18-year-old kids. I also like that, although Iowa State is a solid three-point shooting team, it focuses on scoring inside the arc; 52.4 percent of its points come from there. So you’ve got an older team that guards and takes high-percentage shots. That’s a winning combination.
FRASCHILLA: There may not be a sure-fire NBA prospect on this Cyclone roster, but who cares? Otzelberger has eight solid winning players in the rotation. He returned his four top scorers and added four great (especially for the money) transfers. That’s enough to overcome the loss of sophomore forward Milan Momcilovic for the next month. Curtis Jones is the most improved player I’ve seen in the Big 12 in years and is a legitimate conference player of the year candidate. Joshua Jefferson brings a versatility that hasn’t been seen in Ames since Georges Niang was on campus. This team has weaknesses but they are hard to find.
Another team rising somewhat quietly is Michigan State. The Spartans are 6-0 in the Big Ten and have a huge game coming up on Sunday at home against Illinois. Is this a legit Final Four team or is Tom Izzo’s group headed for a comedown?
DAVIS: This team isn’t going anywhere. I love these Spartans. We tend to focus on their poor three-point shooting (28.7 percent, which ranks 340th nationally), but that stat is a little skewed because they didn’t make anything their first eight games. This is the deepest, most balanced team Izzo has had in a while. If anything, I worry that this team might be a little too balanced. They don’t have a go-to late clock bucket getter like Tyson Walker was the last two seasons. But they defend and get on the glass like Izzo’s vintage squads. They’ve got a huge game at home against Illinois on Sunday.
SQUADRON: I don’t think Michigan State is headed for a comedown, but I’m not ready to say its a legit Final Four team yet. The Spartans are solid defensively and excel at getting to the free throw line and converting, which is a recipe for a lot of wins. But I am concerned about the lack of shooting. The team does not take a lot of threes, mainly because it is connecting on such a low percentage of its attempts from there. I’ll be interested to see if Izzo’s squad can hang with Illinois, which is averaging 87.3 points per game (fifth in Division I), on Sunday.
DORTCH: The Spartans are on a nice run; they haven’t lost since Nov. 26. That’s 10 wins in a row. Like Iowa State, MSU is good on both sides of the ball, and it places a heavy emphasis on scoring inside the arc. There’s good reason for that — Michigan State is shooting 28.7 percent from three. But the Spartans are shooting 57.1 percent from two. And here’s an eye-popping stat that will serve them well as the season winds down to tournament play —they’re fourth in the nation in free-throw percentage (.816). That’s handy in close games.
FRASCHILLA: The Spartans are off to their best start in five seasons and 4-0 to begin Big Ten play is nothing to sneeze at. Izzo’s team already has three conference road wins. So while I don’t see a Final Four club at the moment, I don’t believe a comedown is coming either, even as the schedule gets tougher. This Michigan State team has a deep backcourt that unselfishly moves the ball, even if it can get careless with it at times. The guards get the ball to the paint and Izzo’s big men pound the offensive glass. On the defensive end, that backcourt puts pressure on opponents and allows for a beautiful, ugly winning formula.
Inside the Big Ten: Michigan State’s Throwback Look, and is Indiana Better Without Reneau?
PLUS: How are Rutgers and Illinois faring without their stars?On the flip side, Arkansas is now 0-4 in the SEC with a road game coming up at Missouri on Saturday. Why is this team so bad? And if you had to say yea or nay … will the Hogs make the NCAA Tournament?
DAVIS: To answer the second question first: Nay. The Hogs are not a terrible team, but they are getting exposed big-time in the SEC. It’s hard enough to beat the top teams, especially on the road, but when you can’t even win at LSU, then something truly is amiss. Arkansas is an okay defensive team, but offensively it’s a mess. The Hogs got one of the best (and most expensive) players in the transfer portal in Johnell Davis, a guard from FAU, and John Calipari is trying to turn him into a standstill shooter when he’s at his best attacking the rim. Arkansas got outscored 26-11 from the foul line at LSU. That’s a toughness stat. And now there’s no time to recover with a game coming up at Missouri on Saturday.
SQUADRON: In our last Fast Break, I predicted Arkansas would make the tourney. Then Cal’s team lost to LSU earlier this week, a game it really needed considering how difficult it is to get wins in the SEC. The offense struggled immensely, as it has since conference play began at the beginning of January. The Razorbacks are loaded with talent, including a few high-level NBA prospects, but they haven’t figured out how to play together. So now I am going to say nay, this squad won’t go dancing. I just don’t see it turning things around enough.
DORTCH: It seems as though Cal is still looking for a way to play and what players he wants to do that with. The good news is Arkansas will have plenty of opportunities for Quad 1 wins. But that also means it will have plenty of opportunities for Quad 1 losses. There’s a rocky road ahead after the Missouri game. Arkansas still has to play at Kentucky, Texas, Texas A&M and Auburn. Alabama, Missouri, Texas and Mississippi State are coming to Fayetteville. It’s starting to look like this hole the Hogs have dug themselves might be too deep to crawl out of.
FRASCHILLA: Ken Pomeroy and I are forecasting a 6-12 record in the powerful SEC, so the Razorbacks have to plug leaks in a sinking ship quickly. They are inexperienced with a shallow bench and no offensive identity. Freshman Boogie Fland is a first-round pick and freaky athletic Adou Thiero brings the energy every night. While I am not optimistic, the good news is that their schedule is manageable down the stretch, even in the best league in the country this season.
Finally, give our readers one under-the-radar player that they should make an effort to watch?
DAVIS: If it weren’t for Flagg, the front runner for ACC Player of the Year might be an obscure, tall Frenchman at Stanford. (What, you didn’t know Stanford was in the ACC?) Maxime Raynaud, a 7-foot-1 forward from Paris, leads the league in scoring (20.5 points per game) and rebounding (11.5) and is making 35.8 percent from three on 4.8 attempts. The Cardinal only play Duke once, by the way, on Feb. 15 in Cameron Indoor Stadium. That will be appointment viewing for sure.
SQUADRON: Nique Clifford. The Colorado State senior guard has shot up NBA draft boards due to his versatility and athleticism. He is a fun player to watch because his skill set is so unique. At 6-foot-6, he ranks in the top 20 nationally in rebounding (9.7 rpg) and leads the Rams in scoring (16.6 ppg). He is shooting with more confidence this season, but he is most effective attacking the rim. Expect Clifford to be a first-round pick come June.
DORTCH: I would watch Thomas Sorber, a 6-foot-10, 255-pound freshman from Georgetown. He was a top 50 freshman and has surpassed that billing, leading the Hoyas in scoring (14.2 ppg), rebounding (8.6 rpg) and blocked shots (2.4 bpg). He’s also second on the team in assists while shooting 53.9 percent from the field and a solid 74 percent from the free throw line.
FRASCHILLA: Last week, I would have said Iowa State’s Curtis Jones is under the radar. That has changed, especially after his dominant performance against the Cyclones’ historic nemesis, Kansas, on Wednesday. But staying in the Big 12, I’d say West Virginia’s Javon Small. The South Bend, Indiana, native starred on Oklahoma State’s basement dweller last season but he is quickly gaining notoriety for the overachieving Mountaineers, spearheading their win over the Jayhawks in Allen Fieldhouse.