I promised over the weekend that we were headed for a Super Saturday in college hoops, and once again the sport did not disappoint. Besides the four ranked-on-ranked games, the day was stuffed with exciting action. Things will slow down this week as the teams finish off final exams and head into the holiday break, but we’ve got another terrific lineup set for this weekend.
If the sport seems chaotic at times, this is the place where it’s all set into its proper order. As an AP voter, I enjoy spending a few hours every Sunday pouring over the results and the data, and then submitting my ballot accordingly. Once again, I have relied on a diverse trio of metrics to guide my decisions: KenPom (a predictive metric that includes data from last season), BartTorvik (filtered to include only games from this season), and BartTorvik’s Wins Above Bubble, which is a purely results-based metric. Those rankings are listed in order beside each team. The number in parentheses reflects where that team was ranked on my ballot last week.
Here, once again, is the (correct) order of the top 25 teams in men’s college basketball, as submitted to the Associated Press Sunday evening.
DROPPED OUT: Wisconsin (23)
ALMOST FAMOUS: Kentucky (19-32-76), Iowa (22-19-30), USC (36-40-13), Indiana (26-13-62), Texas Tech (24-36-35), UCLA (31-34-58), Saint Mary’s (32-25-20), LSU (34-27-28), Seton Hall (50-35-26)
Notes on the Votes
• Once again, we have a glut of really good options for No. 1. Arizona made a big-time statement with its 96-75 destruction of Alabama in Birmingham. The Wildcats were No. 1 in the AP poll last week, and I am sure my fellow voters will extend them that honor this week.
I am not beyond shuffling my rankings even when teams don’t lose. Sometimes teams just get leapfrogged. But I am particularly protective of the top of my ballot. Believe it or not, I put a great deal of time and thought into these decisions. If I have a team at No. 1, there’s a good reason for it. So unless it loses, or in the absence of something really extraordinary, I try to maintain that order.
There is a legit case for Duke to be No. 1. The Blue Devils have won three straight games over ranked teams, bringing their total to four on the season. Only one of those came at home, and one was a true road win at Michigan State. Duke did not play a game last week due to final exams, so I saw no reason to move it down.
Regardless, I don’t believe there is a single best team in college basketball this season. But there sure are a lot of really good ones.
• I bumped up Houston and BYU due to their continued strong performance in the metrics. BYU pulled off an amazingly gutsy comeback over Clemson at the Jimmy V Classic in Madison Square Garden. The Cougars’ two-point loss to UConn in Boston is looking even more impressive given the way the Huskies are playing. (Though it should be said that UConn was still without freshman guard Braylon Mullins for that game.) I’m a little concerned about the Cougars’ lack of depth, but having A.J. Dybantsa on your roster erases a lot of deficiencies.
Houston has an odd profile. The Cougars’ best win was a one-point squeaker over Auburn in Las Vegas. Their lone loss was to Tennessee by three. They haven’t played the toughest schedule (No. 206 nonconference ranking on KenPom), but their metrics indicate they are still a top-10 team. We’ll know more about how good Houston is when it faces a surging Arkansas squad on Saturday in Newark.
• I don’t usually like to punish a team for losing to a higher-ranked opponent, but I needed to account for a) the size of Alabama’s margin of defeat to Arizona and b) the fact that it was a de facto home game in Birmingham. Alabama has three relatively easy games before it starts SEC play by hosting Kentucky on Jan. 3.
• I didn’t rank Nebraska last week because I wanted to see how the Huskers would fare against its first two top-40 opponents. My fellow voters installed the Huskers at No. 23 for their first ranking in seven years, and in this instance they were right and I was wrong. Nebraska drilled Wisconsin by 30 at home and then knocked off Illinois 83-80 on the road on Saturday. I split the difference on the Huskers’ metrics and installed them at No. 14. They’ve got a couple of mid-major opponents coming up and then host Michigan State in Lincoln on Jan. 2.
• As I’ve always said, metrics are useful, not gospel. So while Vanderbilt’s metrics would dictate a much higher ranking, this team does not have remotely the quality of wins these others have. The Commodores’ best wins were by 25 points over Saint Mary’s in The Bahamas and by 19 over SMU at home. They have played four games against top-100 KenPom teams all season and none against the top 30. The first such game will take place against Alabama in Nashville on Jan. 7. Vanderbilt has much to prove if it’s going to be lumped in with the teams ranked ahead.
• One of the teams that vaulted Vanderbilt is Florida, which has been playing better of late even though it still lacks a signature win. But if we’re putting Duke and UConn on the short list of best teams in the country, we have to acknowledge that the Gators lost to both of them on the road by a total of five points. The SEC is down from where it was a year ago and the Gators’ league schedule is back loaded (they only play Tennessee and Arkansas once). Don’t be surprised if this team strings together wins and climbs up the rankings over the next several weeks.
• As for the bottom of my ballot, Clemson proved itself rank-worthy by taking BYU to the brink. The new-look, run-and-gun Georgia Bulldogs thumped Cincinnati by 19 points in Atlanta. They open up SEC play on Jan. 3 with games against Auburn and Florida. No. 25 Virginia, which also has a new-look offense under first-year coach Ryan Odom, did not play last week and hosts Maryland at home on Saturday.
• Texas Tech has been ranked in the top 20 all season, but this is the third straight week the Red Raiders have been off my ballot. Their loss to Arkansas dropped them to 0-3 against ranked teams (including a 30-point shellacking by Purdue in The Bahamas). Their best wins were on neutral courts over Wake Forest and LSU. I might still rank this team if it had better metrics, but it is well outside the top 25 on both BartTorvik and Wins Above Bubble. Needless to say, a win over Duke on Saturday in Newark would change the math.
Speaking of LSU, the Tigers are starting to look interesting after they improved to 9-1 with an 89-77 win over SMU in New Orleans. The Tigers’ only loss is to Texas Tech on a neutral court, but given the 24-point margin in that one I remain skeptical that the Tigers are a legit top 25 team. As always, the best way to prove me wrong is to beat good teams, especially away from home. LSU’s next opportunity to do so is Jan. 10 at Vanderbilt.
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