Last week, if you faded Cleveland State, and backed Green Bay, and rode that Tulsa team total over, AND got behind Cal Baptist… well, then you cashed with us.
Let’s do it again! Here’s a primer on key numbers to watch and how to pounce on a game per day to get you to next weekend.
Monday: Wofford at Gardner-Webb – Wofford -9.5 (-110)
Gardner-Webb specializes in losing games by double digits and we expect more of the same come Monday. The Runnin’ Bulldogs didn’t lose their first 11 games for no good reason. Nine of their 11 losses have come by 10 points or more, and we expect Wofford to be at least 12 points better than them. Gardner-Webb is a mess. They turn the ball over like crazy and are 360th in opponents’ EFG and 355th in KenPom defensive efficiency. Wofford could hang 85 on them easy, and we have a hard time seeing GW get to 70 points without getting to the line a ton… and that’s not a specialty of theirs. Wofford protects the ball at an elite rate and gets to the line constantly (top 70 in FTA/FGA rate). Vegas is having a tough time with Gardner-Webb; the Runnin’ Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS. Wofford is 3-2 ATS as a favorite this season.
Tuesday: Toledo at Michigan State – Under
Sparty unders at home, baby. Sparty unders at home. Especially against overmatched opponents. And especially this time of year with a lull between conference games in the Big Ten schedule and campus thinning out for winter break and intensity and energy a little low. No need to run up the score on Toledo, and a great spot for Tom Izzo to reinforce the defensive principles he so strongly espouses. We go back to this well so often because it cashes so often. Sparty is 5-1 to the under at home this season and 7-1 to the under after a win and 6-2 under in nonconference games. Oh, that means since the start of 2023-24, Michigan State is 24-12 under out of conference and 28-12 under at home. Toledo does a really nice job protecting the basketball, so shouldn’t give away too many easy transition points. Toledo is 5-3 to the under out of conference this season and we expect them to struggle to get to 60 points here. Sparty might be comfortable cruising to 75.
Wednesday: Citadel at College of Charleston – COC to cover
This is not the best version of Charleston; the roster looks a little down from recent years and they are dealing with some key injuries as CAA play looms. Lucky for them, they are facing one of the most overwhelmed outfits in college hoops. Charleston can flirt with 90 points here and if they do we are looking at a margin of victory of more than 20 points, easy. The Citadel is dead last in KenPom defensive rating. They are No. 346 defending the three ball and No. 333 defending the two ball. They are outside the top 250 in key rebounding metrics. Charleston has way too much size, with two seven-foot kids to throw at them, and the Cougars will kill them with second-chance opportunities.
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Thursday: Western Carolina at Georgia – Over
These Bulldogs can really run. In a column full of Dogs and dogs, few teams are more fun to watch than the Dogs from Athens. They want to hang 100 on everyone and their nonconference games have been bonkers. They are 6-3 to the over outside the SEC, with conference play still to come, and those games have gone over on average by 12.8 points. Not even close. The Dogs are seventh in KenPom pace and top 25 in offensive efficiency, and we anticipate another 100-point performance from them. Western Carolina is also a top 50 team in pace and we have them penciled in to contribute 70, as well. This total won’t open quite that high and perhaps not all that close to it.
Friday: Coppin State at Navy – Navy to Cover
This is Coppin’s 14th game of the season and only one has been played at home. These kids have been put through a gauntlet and still have another road game after this one before they get UMBC at home. This isn’t a long trip from Baltimore to Annapolis, but it’s a Navy team that looks tournament-bound and it’s another brutal task for a team very short on talent. Coppin is outside the top 350 in offensive and defensive net rating. They have not been able to make 28 percent of their three-point attempts and opponents are making 37 percent against them. The Eagles are 3-6 ATS on the road, losing on average by 28 points per game and failing to cover by 5.0 per game. Navy can slow this down and suffocate Coppin on the boards and hold them under 60 points. Something in the range of 85-60 wouldn’t surprise us at all. The Midshipmen are coming off a 12-day layoff and could start a little rusty, so we don’t love the team total as much as just covering a spread that will be around 20.
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