With the holiday tournaments wrapped and Feast Week in the books, the college hoops landscape starts to steady itself. Teams have shown their hand, flaws are harder to hide and the countdown to conference play is on.
It’s time to sift through the slate and lock in plays that offer real value as the schedule tightens and the edges become clearer. Here are a few plays that we like for the weekend.
Milwaukee vs. Akron (Saturday) – Over
There’s not a lot of premier matchups this weekend, but this should be a fun one. Two teams who have lots of success scoring and don’t play a lot of defense. The reason Akron is such a big favorite to win the MAC is because not many teams can keep up with the Zips’ offense. John Groce will always have these guys playing at a high tempo and dare opponents to keep up if they can. Akron is coming off a trip to the Virgin Islands where the offense traveled with them. In three games, the Zips scored 287 points. Do we expect them to average 90-plus points moving forward? No, probably not, but there’s no reason to believe Milwaukee will be the team to limit them. The Panthers are allowing 83.3 points per game, which ranks 298th in the country. When they’ve given up 80 points this season, the over has cashed in three of four. Taking overs is always fun and this should be an entertaining matchup to watch if you like scoring.
Montana State vs. Utah State (Saturday) – Under
Playing an under in a Utah State game doesn’t feel fun, but Montana State’s game plan has to be to slow things down. They’re playing at one of the slowest paces in the country to this point, and that’s where the Bobcats have been at their best. The defense was able to hold a tough Boise State squad to 62 points in Boise a few weeks ago and was almost the recipe for a big-time upset. Utah State is a better scoring team than the Broncos, but Montana State has proven it can limit another Mountain West team scoring. It’s also worth noting that the Aggies are coming off a trip to the other side of the country and haven’t played in six days.
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UC Irvine vs. San Jose State (Sunday) – UC Irvine to Cover
The Anteaters defense is always one of the best in the country. Russell Turner has developed one of the strongest foundations defensively among mid-majors and is fine winning his games in ugly form. They don’t foul much, are strong on the defensive glass and defend the perimeter better than almost anyone else in the country. There weren’t high expectations for San Jose State coming into the season, and nothing we’ve seen through the first few weeks suggests otherwise. Things haven’t clicked for UC Irvine yet on offense this season, but it’s been the same for San Jose State.
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