We are running out of games, our friends. We are running out of games.
This tournament has been ultra-chalky, the lines have been tight and finding plus-money value that pays off has been in short supply. While we literally are running out of college hoops games to bet, there might be a natural inclination to get some action on everything going on. We’d advise caution.
Line shop with vigor and don’t be afraid to play around with alternate lines and totals, where available, to try to get numbers that are worth the squeeze. We already have some of our available budget on futures that are pending the results of these Sunday games, so if you don’t see something on a particular game, there is a decent chance one of the teams is referenced in our futures column that appeared at the beginning of last week.
There are three plays that stand out to us for Sunday:
Iowa State -4.5 (-115, DK)
The Cyclones have displayed down the stretch that their prowess will travel and they don’t need to be in Ames to run over quality teams. We love how they finished their Big 12 run — great displays within the best conference in the country — and this is a team with the No. 5 defense in the country and a top-20 offense. Kentucky was beyond lucky to survive Santa Clara in the first round, and Iowa State will turn up the defensive heat even more and, we believe, turn the Wildcats over and get easy looks at the rim. The Cyclones have covered five in a row and we love hot teams. Each of their past four wins have been by at least 21 points. With a bunch of days off after this, we think they keep their foot on the gas. When the Wildcats have been a dog of between 4-5.5 points this season, they are 0-4 ATS.
Texas Tech vs Alabama: Over 164.5 (-115, DK)
This looks like a track meet to us. Alabama will play with its usual breakneck pace, and not having one of its best players (guard Aden Holloway) won’t impact that. Yeah, this is a high number, but not by Alabama standards; it’s actually the Tide’s fourth-lowest total in a game all season. Tech won’t want to play at this pace, but we don’t think the Red Raiders are going to have a choice. And Tech can score, too: The Red Raiders put up 82 at Iowa State, 78 at Arizona and 80 at UCF; all were tourney teams. Alabama’s defense is plenty suspect and these are two of the 10 most efficient offenses in the nation. We wouldn’t be shocked if both got to 85 points. Alabama is 7-2-1 to the over in its past 10 road and/or neutral games.
UConn + Purdue + Arizona: ML Parlay (+121, BetMGM)
Embrace the chalk. It is what it is. Mick Cronin was freaking out on student managers and watching UCLA bumble away a large lead Friday night. The Bruins almost blew it against UCF, Cronin hates the cross country travel and we just think this UConn team will perform much better in this spot than it did in the late-night game Friday against Furman. Arizona will get banged around by Utah State and the Aggies won’t roll over, but the Wildcats are the best team in the country, battle-tested and will win this game even if they have to get gritty to do it. Miami has impressed us this season, but Purdue is a bad matchup for the Hurricanes. If it is a close game, the Hurricanes’ inability to make foul shots could doom them (68.1 percent, 321st nationally). Purdue is just too potent offensively, and if the Boilermakers shoot the 3-ball even remotely close to their norm, they will score too many points for Miami to catch. The Boilermakers hit 38.5 percent from beyond the arc (12th), while the Hurricanes are 274th defending the 3. And, again, we love a hot team: Purdue has won five in a row.
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