It’s hard to believe the regular season is basically over. Which means, sadly, we’re not going to be able handicap games this far ahead of time until the NCAA Tournament brackets come out.
Tournament play is an entirely different animal altogether, but we will definitely be jumping on some plays both in the futures market and the regular gambling markets once the brackets are revealed.
Even this week, the lookaheads are a little tricky because certain teams we like are already in tourney play, but we obviously don’t know how those early rounds will play out and exactly which matchups we are going to get. Regardless, let’s finish the regular season with a bang!
Monday: Coppin State at Howard – Howard to cover
We told you guys a while back that Howard was the class of the MEAC and it wasn’t close. We have been riding them the last month of the regular season and they never let us down, including a total dismantling of the Morgan State Bears in Baltimore on Saturday. The Bison have covered seven straight conference games, doing so by: 14.5, 9.5, 21.5, 14.5, 13.5, 5.5 and 20 points. They are the best offensive and defensive team in the conference. Howard won the first meeting by 19 and could win by 25 here without playing an A-game. They are pushing for the No. 1 in the conference tourney. That gym will be rocking.
Tuesday: Akron at Central Michigan – Central Michigan to cover
This will be a substantial point spread (we figure around 10 points), and that hasn’t been great terrain for Zips backers. Akron has covered just two of its last eight games and is just 7-9 ATS in conference. Central Michigan is 12-4-1 ATS in conference and 7-2-1 ATS at home. The Chippewas can muck this up and keep this close enough.
Wednesday: Baylor at Houston – Under / Baylor team total under
The Cougars are re-establishing their superpower ahead of knockout play – stifling defense and forcing opponents to match their style of physical, often methodical basketball. They held Baylor to 55 points in the first meeting and we wouldn’t be totally shocked to see Houston keep the Bears around there again. The Bears couldn’t get any easy looks in that game and were 8 of 22 on two-point attempts. Yuck. The Cougars in recent play have allowed: 62, 69, 73, 70, 64, 52, 66 and 55 points while going under in nine of its last 11 games.
Thursday: Tulsa at East Carolina – Over
The Golden Hurricane were an auto-over team for a nice stretch of the season, then the game totals started elevating to some extreme heights and the market correction followed with unders. Lately, it’s been back to the future. Tulsa is over in three straight and 10 of the last 15 while leading the conference in three-point shooting. East Carolina is ninth in the AAC defending the three-ball. Tulsa will come into this game off a week of rest; the Hurricane are 4-1 to the over with four-plus days of rest and 18-8 to the over with two or more days between games.
Friday: VCU at Dayton – Dayton ML
This should be a heck of a ballgame. The Flyers are playing by far their best basketball of the season, and they are gutsy as hell. They weren’t at their best at George Washington last week and blew a big 14-point lead and still managed to handle the final minute expertly on the road and win anyway. They can shoot the three-ball and the defense has been stingy, allowing 66, 62, 66, 67 and 59 points over their last five games. We like them to do the job at home and go into the A-10 Tournament with momentum.
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