Conference play is in full swing and so are we. This is the time of year where we start to lean into more volume in college hoops wagering.
This can be the most fertile time of the season, as we get into the ebb and flow before tournament time approaches and more variance sets in. Hope we can make the most of it together.
Here are plays we are planning to attack this week.
Monday: Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Prairie View – Prairie View to Cover
We’ve faded Pine Bluff a few times this season and they began as a dead over team, given some of their deficiencies defensively. But in this case we expect them to lose by 10 points or more on the road at a superior opponent, and this line is more likely to open around 5-7 points. Vegas has had a tough time pegging Prairie View, which we like. The Panthers are a strong 8-3 ATS on the season and easily covered the first two Southwestern Conference games on their schedule, including going to Southern and winning by multiple possessions despite being a 7.5-point dog. They might be the class of the conference.
Tuesday: Central Michigan at Miami (OH) – Miami (OH) to win by 20+
We got burned by the Redhawks early last week on “Wanna Bet?” but loved them even more on Friday vs. Toledo, which we jumped on in this space. We urged a ML play and expected them to be a small dog, and they won by 14. Even the game they failed to cover last week, they opened at Northern Kentucky by going 3 of 19 from behind the arc and still ended up winning comfortably — just not covering. Back at home in this spot against a lesser opponent, we anticipate this being a smash spot. Miami has a top 80 offense and a top 125 defense and is 4-2 ATS at home. The Chippewas are a bottom 300 team on offense and defense and they get destroyed on the boards. Central has been destroyed for the most part on the road is 3-5 ATS away from home.
Wednesday: Tulsa at Charlotte – Over
Tulsa can be an overwhelming offensive basketball team and we like them to strut their stuff here. As a result, the Golden Hurricane are 7-2 to the over since Thanksgiving, playing another game over 170 points Saturday in losing to South Florida. They can hang 90 on anybody and have had lapses where they allow an opponent to do that, as well. Tulsa is top 40 in offensive efficiency, top 20 in eFG%, they don’t turn the ball over and they defend like heck. They also can’t defend the three-ball very well.
Thursday: Hofstra at Stony Brook – Hofstra by 12+
The Pride remain the surprise story of the CAA. They are just about a top 100 KenPom offensive and defensive team and have won seven straight games, knocking off Pitt and Syracuse in the process (sure, those programs are down, but still). Perhaps most impressively, Hofstra is 38thin the country in opposing eFG%; that, coupled with one of the slowest styles in the country, makes it difficult to come back on them. Possessions just fade away. Of utmost import to us, the Pride is 12-3 ATS for the season. They smashed reigning CAA champs, Towson, on the road already this season, and Stony Brook is clearly one of the least talented teams in this conference.
Wanna Bet? Top Wagers for Thursday and Friday Night
Feb 23: Take the over in Louisville at UNC — even with Caleb Wilson out of commission. Our gambling tandem also brings you picks for USC at UCLA, Michigan at Illinois and more.
Friday: Loyola Chicago at Dayton – Dayton to Cover
Loyola Chicago is an auto-fade for us unless something changes dramatically. Especially on the road in conference, where teams aren’t going to show a lot of mercy. And the Flyers can put a hurting on them. We enjoyed George Washington covering -14 for us on Sunday while hosting Loyola … and topping 100 points while Loyola struggled to crack 60. Yeah, that happened. Dayton beat GW by seven at home prior to that game. The transitive property doesn’t work in college hoops, but this should be over at the half.
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