Welcome back to Daily Best Bets, where I give you my favorite plays and futures throughout the season . As always, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
We are currently 44-37-1 and +$46 on the season with just a few two days to go before brackets are locked in and March Madness officially kicks off! Before then is a great time to take a look at opportunities in the futures market, knowing what each team’s potential path looks like.
Let’s get to it.
Louisville to Make the Elite Eight, +980, $10
You can always try to get cute and avoid the one-seeds for as long as possible, or you can go straight at the belly of the beast. That’s what Louisville has been given no choice but to do and, thus, what we must do, too. As an eight-seed that probably deserved at least a six next to their name, if not a five, Louisville now has the displeasure of playing Auburn in the second round rather than the second weekend. They do, of course, have to beat Creighton first, but they’re distinctly undervalued by the efficiency models and playing close to home in the Lexington, KY pod. They take such good shots and limit opponents to so many mid range jumpers that they end up just outside the ShotQuality top ten teams. They are expected to be getting an extra net point for every ten possessions this season. That, along with their insanely high rate of three point attempts, should give them the chance to keep up with even the best team in the nation if they get hot. Don’t get confused, it is a massive undertaking and will require one of the best games Louisville has played all year combined with a very sub-par game from Auburn, but it’s possible, and much more so than the price we are getting here. After that, we should be in a great spot to beat the four or five-seed that meets the Cardinals in the Sweet Sixteen.
BYU to Make the Elite Eight, +580, $15
The Cougars rank in the top-ten of ShotQuality’s net rankings, 14 in Torvik, 16 in Evan Miya, but KenPom and the NET have them at 24! I’m going to trust the advanced data indications over the result indications. That is what the true distinction between these sites is, after all, and it’s not a belief, it’s fact, that expected data yields more predictive results. It’s been proven. So BYU, the predictive darling behind Kevin Young, who executes a strong Rim and 3 offense with the depth to match. As a result, they’ve taken 50 percent less bad shots than the average team and 50 percent more good shots. That’s not easy to do, and all signs point to BYU requiring a seriously talented, top-5 level opponent to end their potential run. I don’t think Alabama nor Wisconsin fits the bill, the cougars can match the three point shooting of either and defend the interior while creating better spacing and, thus, earning better shots. I’ll take the value on a six seed that plays like a three. Go Cougs!!!
Texas Tech to Make the Final Four, +550, $10
Almost every metric has this team as a serious top ten contender. They are experienced, methodical, aggressive on defense, and can shoot the ball. Their ShotQuality ranking is currently third, ahead of Houston and Florida as the tournament starts. So why wouldn’t we take the shot with a team that isn’t priced like their peers. Yes, they will have to go through a gauntlet in what I believe is the toughest region in the bracket, but they force opponents to take two point shots and dominate out of the pick and roll to create spacing for their jump shots that is simply fun to watch. They’re coming off the Big 12 tournament loss to Arizona that they were expected to win, and they will compete against every opponent they face. They can shoot, pass, don’t turn the ball over, force the fifth most mid range shots on defense, and know their strengths. It’s a great value.
