It’s a new month, a new year, and a new phase of the college basketball season. Conference play has been unleashed in full force. That will take the action to a higher gear as the top teams will have to play true road games against conference rivals who are eager to bolster their NCAA Tournament resumes. Buckle up, buttercups.
And let’s be honest — your favorite prognosticator definitely needs a fresh start. I ended 2025 on an ignominious oh-fer, which put me further under the .500 water line. But hark! I’ve got nowhere to go but up (I think). Anybody can ride a wave when it’s cresting. This is your chance to hop on board right before the big rise.
Here are my picks against the spread for today’s top games. Play me, fade me, but let’s have some fun.
Virginia at N.C. State
Seth’s Analysis
There’s nothing like an epic rant to ring in the New Year. N.C. State coach Will Wade went off on a reporter who had the temerity to ask about the offensive struggles of 6-foot-6 senior guard Darrion Williams, the celebrated (and expensive) transfer who over his last two games has scored a combined 9 points on 3 of 20 shooting. The question was especially pertinent considering Williams has shot a total of five free throws over his last five games. Did Wade protest too much? Perhaps, but while it’s nice to see a coach stick up for his player, it’s even nicer when said player can deliver his team to an important league victory over a much-improved program. The Wolfpack lost to the top four teams they played in the nonconference, so it’s imperative they string together quality wins in the ACC. You can forgive the Cavaliers if they’re a little tuckered out after losing in triple overtime at Virginia Tech on Wednesday. Both these teams are efficient at scoring but struggle when it comes to stopping opponents, and though the Cavs will probably have some success at slowing the pace, I think this is a comfortable matchup for N.C. State. The fact that the Pack is playing at home and is in need of quality wins makes me even more confident. And Williams is too good of a player for his offensive struggles to continue for much longer.
Kentucky at Alabama
Seth’s Analysis
It’s hard to imagine a program needing a win more than Kentucky’s over St. John’s in Atlanta on Dec. 20. Not coincidentally, the Wildcats won after they finally got their full complement of players, most notably 6-foot-10 sophomore forward Jayden Quaintance, who had 10 points and 8 rebounds in his first game since tearing an ACL while playing for Arizona State last February. Quaintance only played 8 minutes in UK’s win over Bellarmine on Tuesday as coach Mark Pope looks to bring him along slowly. Pope also held out 6-foot-3 junior point guard Jaland Lowe to rest the dislocated shoulder that will likely be an issue all season. Alabama coach Nate Oats also held out 6-foot-4 sophomore guard Labaron Philon, the current frontrunner for SEC Player of the Year, from Monday’s win over Yale to protect a minor groin injury, but he should be ready to go for this one. The extended rest and practice time is good for everyone, but the return of both Quaintance and 6-foot-7 junior forward Mouhamed Dioubate (who played his first two seasons at Alabama) should enable the Cats to take advantage of the Crimson Tide’s lack of inside muscle. I actually think Kentucky has a good chance to steal one on the road, but even if the Cats fall short I think they can turn this into a squeaker.
Kansas at UCF
Seth’s Analysis
Speaking of injury questions, there is none bigger in college basketball than the state of Darryn Peterson’s tender hamstring and cramping issues, which have cost him nine games, including the last two. Bill Self said this week that Peterson is showing his old explosiveness in practice and should be good to go for this game, and hopefully the remainder of the season. If that’s the case, look out, because the Jayhawks have quietly turned into a championship-level defensive team while Peterson has been sidelined, and his supporting cast has improved greatly. UCF’s 11-1 start does not include a win over a single top-40 KenPom team. The only ranked squad the Knights have played was Vanderilt, which beat them in Orlando on Nov. 8. UCF ranks No. 93 on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency, and with Peterson back in the fold the Jayhawks are well-equipped to exploit that glaring weakness.
Tennessee at Arkansas
Seth’s Analysis
Just when it appeared the Razorbacks were surging, they ran head-on into Houston —and reality — on Dec. 20 in Newark. The Cougars’ guards carved up Arkansas’ defense, shooting 11 of 25 from three (51.6 percent overall) while coasting to a 94-85 win. Tennessee, however, does not have the same level of perimeter firepower. The Vols rank No. 35 on KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency and they are 135th in three-point percentage (34.6). Senior guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie is averaging a healthy 17.8 points per game, but his three-point percentage has dropped from last season at Maryland (35.0, down from 40.7) because he is being pressed to launch at a higher volume. Tennessee is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, so it will be the highest priority for the Hogs to keep them off the boards, which has been a concern all season. That makes this a scary matchup for Arkansas, but with a line this small it’s hard to go against the Hogs in Bud Walton Arena.
Purdue at Wisconsin
Seth’s Analysis
When the Badgers were blitzed by 30 points at Nebraska on Dec. 10, a clearly shaken Greg Garden bemoaned afterwards that his team lacked a defensive identity. That was also lacking in the Badgers’ overtime loss to Villanova in Milwaukee nine days later. Purdue is not the team you want to face if you’re having problems stopping people. The Boilermakers are ranked No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom, and they are ninth in offensive rebound percentage. And of course, they have the nation’s best point guard in 6-foot senior Braden Smith, who needs just 10 more assists to pass Michigan State’s Cassius Winston on the Big Ten’s all-time list. Smith also has an outside chance to pass Bobby Hurley late this season as the NCAA’s all-time assists leader. We know Smith has plenty of veteran support, but does Purdue also have a burgeoning star in freshman guard Jack Benter, who scored 20 points off the bench in Monday’s win over Kent State? I know Wisconsin is a desperate home team, and if the line were at -8 as projected by KenPom I might take a chance on the underdogs. But even if it’s a competitive game I think the Boilermakers can cover this spread with late free throws.
Last time: 0-5
This season: 12-23
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