East Regional Preview: Duke, Alabama and Wisconsin Top Bracket

Power Watch

After spraining his ankle Thursday and missing the rest of the ACC Tournament, Duke star Cooper Flagg, a 6-foot-9 freshman forward and the frontrunner for National Player of the Year, will return for the NCAA Tournament. Flagg leads the Blue Devils in every major statistical category.

Alabama has the highest-scoring offense in the country (91.1 points per game), led by 6-foot-1 senior guard Mark Sears. The Tide also rank first nationally in pace.

With 6-foot-5 senior guard John Tonje and 6-foot-4 sophomore guard John Blackwell, Wisconsin has one of the strongest backcourts in America. Tonje, a transfer from Missouri who also played at Colorado State, was a first-team All-Big Ten selection.

Arizona’s success largely hinges on the play of 6-foot-4 senior guard Caleb Love, who has had an inconsistent season but can take over games when he’s in the zone. Love averages 16.6 points on just 38.6 percent shooting.

During Oregon’s recent eight-game winning streak, 7-foot senior center Nate Bittle averaged 18.1 points, 8.4 rebounds and 3.3 blocks. Bittle was a third-team All-Big Ten honoree.

BYU is 12-2 in its past 14 games and has the potential to make noise because of its explosive offense. Junior Richie Saunders, a 6-foot-5 forward, was named the Big 12’s Most Improved Player after averaging 16.0 points and shooting 43.7 percent from behind the arc.

Some elite NBA prospects to keep an eye on (all projected to be first-round picks in Hoops HQ’s mock draft): 7-foot-2 freshman center Khaman Maluach (Duke), 6-foot-7 freshman guard Kon Knueppel (Duke), 6-foot-5 freshman guard VJ Edgecombe (Baylor), 6-foot-9 freshman guard Egor Demin (BYU), 6-foot-8 freshman forward Carter Bryant (Arizona) and 6-foot-4 freshman guard Labaron Philon (Alabama). Knueppel was MVP of the ACC tourney.

Under the Radar

No. 15 seed Robert Morris won the regular season and tournament title in the Horizon League thanks in large part to 6-foot-9 sophomore forward Alvaro Folgueiras, a Spanish native who was the conference’s player of the year.

No. 14 seed Montana’s Money Williams, a 6-foot-4 sophomore guard, has the ability to score in bunches. He dropped 30 points on defensive juggernaut Tennessee earlier this season.

With a balanced attack, Akron averages 84.6 points per game, which ranks eighth in the country. Its primary weapon is 6-foot-4 senior guard Nate Johnson, the MAC Player of the Year. The Zips have won 21 of their past 22 games.

Liberty shoots a scorching 39.5 percent from three (sixth nationally) and is home to the Conference USA Sixth Man of the Year: 6-foot-4 senior guard Taelon Peter, who averages 13.9 points per game while shooting 58.6 percent from the field and 46.6 percent from behind the arc. He spent the past three seasons at Division II Arkansas Tech before transferring (Arkansas Tech’s nickname is the Wonder Boys).

VCU’s do-it-all guard Max Shulga, a 6-foot-4 senior from Ukraine, was named the Atlantic 10’s player of the year. Shulga averages 15.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.8 steals per contest. 

Matchups We Want To See

1. Wisconsin vs. BYU in the second round. These teams are nearly identical in terms of the metrics. This would be a high-scoring, closely contested affair with elite guard play.

2. Alabama vs. Saint Mary’s in the second round. A clash of distinctly different styles. Alabama wants to push the pace and score a lot of points. Saint Mary’s wants to really slow it down (359th in adjusted tempo) and win with defense.

3. Alabama vs. Duke in the Elite Eight. This is the game everyone wants to see. The Tide played all of the tournament’s No. 1 seeds in the regular season except for the Blue Devils. More on this potential matchup below. 

Best Storyline

Will Cooper Flagg and the Blue Devils live up to the hype? Duke enters the NCAA Tournament as the favorite to cut down the nets in San Antonio. Of course, so much rides on Flagg’s health and whether he is hobbled by his sprained ankle.

Despite a remarkable season, Jon Scheyer’s team still has its share of skeptics because it competes in the ACC, which was significantly weaker than the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 this season. Only four ACC schools made it into the tournament: Duke, Clemson, Louisville and North Carolina.

In the second round, Duke will meet either battled-tested Mississippi State or a Baylor squad that looked much sharper during the Big 12 Tournament. And to get to the Final Four, the Blue Devils most likely will have to go through SEC powerhouse Alabama. 

Bracket Buster

Watch out for Akron. As previously mentioned, coach John Groce’s team can flat out score. The Zips play with tremendous pace, share the basketball and launch a lot of threes. They also have the fifth-highest scoring bench in the country (34.35 points per game). Expect their first-round game against Arizona to be a track meet. If Akron hits shots and cranks up the intensity on defense, it has the potential to make the second weekend.

The Pick

Alabama over Duke in the Elite Eight. This would be a fascinating matchup for a number of reasons. Duke is an incredible defensive team, especially when fully healthy; Alabama continues to be unstoppable on offense. Duke starts three freshmen (Flagg, Maluach and Knueppel); Alabama has the ninth-most experienced roster in college basketball. Duke has a young superstar in Flagg; Alabama has a veteran superstar in Sears.

Coach Nate Oats’ team has struggled of late, but no program played a tougher schedule this season, per KenPom.com. This group is more talented, deeper and better defensively than the group that made it to the Final Four last season, and it will not be fazed as the stage gets bigger and the pressure rises.

Duke has played in few close games over the past three months. This one will surely be close and I trust the Tide just a little bit more.