As expected, Auburn earned the overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament by fending off all comers until late in the season. One of those teams that found a way to handle the Tigers was Southeastern Conference mate Texas A&M, which is seeded No. 4 in the South and could potentially come up against Auburn again. The Tigers have lost three of their last four and the first loss was to the Aggies in College Station just a few days after Auburn clinched an undisputed regular season title.
Elsewhere in this bracket, Michigan State, a perennial tournament team, is the No. 2 seed. We could get into the Spartans vs. the Tigers in the regional final. This region also includes a team that earned its way into the Big Dance in its first season of being eligible to play in it (see “Best Storyline” below), and a couple of other teams—we’re looking at you Lipscomb and Yale—that could break some brackets.
This region is going to be a blast.
Power Watch
After Auburn lost to Tennessee in Saturday’s SEC tournament semifinals, a member of the media made the mistake of asking Tigers coach Bruce Pearl if he and his players were “panicked” after losing three of their last four games.
“We lost to Alabama, Tennessee, and at Texas A&M,” Pearl said, his irritation with the question building with every word he spoke. “Yeah, we’re panicked. That’s a real softball [question]. We lost to some great teams… Yeah, we’re panicked. I can hardly wait till next weekend to start playing again.”
Pearl’s point is well taken. He’s got a team filled with dudes—grown men with size, experience, and talent. It starts with 6-foot-10, 240-pound center Johni Broome, who looks like a California Redwood with feet. If Duke freshman Cooper Flagg isn’t the national player of the year, that award will go to Broome, who is close to unstoppable in the paint. Auburn wisely plays through Broome—who’s also a good passer and leads the team in assists—but Pearl has another behemoth, 6-11, 255-pound Dylan Cardwell, and three guards who range from 6-4 to 6-7 and who can all shoot. The bench is deep.
The NCAA selection committee obviously didn’t care about Auburn’s late-season “slump.” This team deserved to earn the overall No. 1 seed by virtue of its 16-5 record against Quad 1 teams. The Tigers have already put those three losses behind them and are ready to rumble.
Under the Radar
Donovan Dent, 10th-seeded New Mexico’s point guard, is a treat to watch. The 6-foot-2 junior guard operates with speed and abandon, and the Mountain West player of the year has put up great numbers. He’s the only player in the nation averaging more than 20 points and six assists, and he hung 40 points on NCAA Tournament team VCU in a mid-December game.
Lipscomb 6-foot-8 senior forward Jacob Ognacevic is a scoring machine. He led the Atlantic Sun with his average of 20.1 points per game on shooting splits of 57.3 percent from the field, 40.2 from three and 79.8 from the free-throw line, where he attempted 208 shots. He’s a tough cover who can also board (8.1 rebounds per game) and pass (48 assists).
UC San Diego’s Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, the Big West player of the year and tournament Most Outstanding player, leads the nation in free throw attempts (293) and makes (222). The 6-foot-6 senior guard/forward averaged 19.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.3 steals.
Matchups We Want To See
Speaking of Lipscomb, we’re eager to see the 14th-seeded Bison play No. 3 Iowa State. Lipscomb coach Lennie Acuff is one of the sharpest offensive coaches in the business, and his teams have not backed down in the guaranteed non-conference games they schedule every year, winning at Florida State in 2023, at Louisville in 2022, and at Dayton in 2021.
The Cyclones will be without the services of 6-foot-4 senior guard Keshon Gilbert, who has been shut down for the rest of the season after missing four of Iowa State’s last seven games with a groin injury. Gilbert leads the Cyclones in scoring and is second in assists. The Cyclones are No. 9 in defensive efficiency according to KenPom.com so the offense vs. defense aspect is compelling.
Looking farther down the line, an Auburn-Michigan State clash for the right to go to the Final Four would be fun to see. The game would be fast and physical. The Spartans are playing in a Big Ten record 27th consecutive NCAA Tournament, and like Auburn, they dominated Quad 1 opponents (13-5). Here’s a stat to keep an eye on—despite the presence of Broome, Auburn loves to crank up 3s, and makes them at an impressive 36.8 percent clip, 40th in the nation. Michigan State is No. 2 in the country in three-point field-goal defense (27.9 percent).
Best Storyline
In its first season after serving the NCAA’s mandatory four years in post-season purgatory when it reclassified from Division II to Division I, UC San Diego won 30 games and the Big West regular-season and tournament championships to secure an NCAA bid. Their reward as a 12 seed is a game against Michigan and its twin-tower front line, but the Tritons will be a tough out. They lead the country in turnover margin (+7.2) because they commit just 8.7 a game (second nationally) and force nearly 16 (eighth in the country). These dudes are pesky—they are also second in Division I in steals per game (8.7).
Bracket Buster
Did we give you enough dish on UC San Diego to pick the Tritons as your obligatory 12 versus 5 upset? If you don’t like that one, remember we told you Lipscomb runs brilliant offense, has bagged some power conference wins the last three seasons, and its opponent, Iowa State, has a key man down.
The Pick
Auburn vs. Michigan State in the Elite Eight, and the Tigers, who as Pearl said are not panicking, will make their second Final Four trip in six years.
