Only once in the last 10 NCAA Tournaments has the Midwest Regional produced the national champion (Kansas in 2022). If you are a fan of analytics and especially KenPom.com, that dry spell could change. This regional features seven of KenPom’s top 20 teams — two more than any other quadrant. Will the team that survives this gantlet March 28-30 in Indianapolis be able to win two more in San Antonio?
Power Watch
If you enjoy watching dominant point guards, then you’ll love the Midwest Regional. Gonzaga’s 6-foot senior Ryan Nembhard leads the nation with 9.8 assists per game while Purdue’s 6-foot Braden Smith, the Big Ten Player of the Year, stands second (8.7 apg). Oh, and first-team all-SEC Zakai Zeigler, a 5-foot-9 senior, ranks fifth with 7.3 per game and set the school single-season record for assists.
Houston point guard Milos Uzan, a 6-foot-4 junior, had big shoes to fill as he transferred from Oklahoma to take over for All-American Jamal Shead. After a few months of getting acclimated, he developed into a second-team all-Big 12 pick and scored a career-high 25 points in the Big 12 conference championship game win over Arizona. Meanwhile, Illinois 6-foot6 freshman Kasparas Jakucionis (15.0 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 4.6 apg) has been projected to go as early as fifth in the upcoming NBA draft. When he limits his turnovers, he’s capable of leading the sixth-seeded Illini on a deep run.
Houston stands as the only team in the nation to earn No. 1 seeds each of the last three years, but the Cougars’ journey ended in the Sweet 16 the last two seasons. Before you stereotype, understand that this year’s crew is a little different. No, they’re not quite as dominant on the boards as they “only” outrebound opponents by 4.6 per game. Yes, they still defend like crazy — they’re No. 2 in national scoring defense (58.5 ppg) and No. 2 in KenPom defensive efficiency (87.8 points allowed per 100 possessions). But they also shoot nearly as well as they defend. Houston owns the best three-point percentage of any team in the bracket at 39.8 percent. Big 12 tournament MVP Emanuel Sharp, a 6-foot-3 junior guard (42.8 percent), Uzan (42.6) and all-Big 12 6-foot-1 senior guard LJ Cryer (42.2) have combined for 226 threes.
Under the Radar
Purdue’s 6-foot-9 junior forward Trey Kaufman-Renn (20.2 ppg) ranks as the Midwest Regional’s leading scorer, but SIU-Ewardsville 6-foot-1 senior guard Ray’Sean Taylor (19.3 ppg, 3.8 apg, 91 3-pointers) is next. He hit Indiana for 17 and Illinois for 14 in back-to-back games against Big Ten foes in November.
High Point’s 6-foot-7 junior forward Kimani Hamilton (13.4 ppg) should get first crack at guarding Kaufman-Reen when the Panthers face the Boilermakers in the first round.
Troy boasts a terrific point guard in 6-foot-3 senior Tayton Conerway. He ranks third in the nation with 2.9 steals per game – in addition to averaging 14.3 points, 4.8 assists and 4.6 rebounds, so he’ll be a handful for Kentucky.
Wofford 6-foot-9 center Kyler Filewich (11.9 ppg, 9.4 rpg) is a solid low-post threat, but pay particular attention if/when Tennessee fouls the SoCon tournament MVP in the act of shooting. Two months ago, after Filewich missed 14 straight free throws shooting them conventionally, NBA Hall of Famer Rick Barry flew to Wofford’s campus to teach his underhand “granny” technique. Filewich has gone 18 of 51 at the line (35.3) since adopting the method, which beats his 29.6 percent showing prior to the change.
Utah State played only one power conference foe during non-league play, but 6-foot-3 sophomore Mason Falslev took advantage by hitting Iowa for 25 points and 12 rebounds. He averages 14.9 points and leads the Aggies in rebounds (6.2), assists (3.7) and steals (2.3).
Matchups We Want To See
If you believe in predictive metrics like KenPom, then Houston is wondering how the Hades it might have to play Gonzaga in the second round. The Bulldogs rank as the nation’s ninth-best team per KenPom and eighth per the NCAA Net — and they get a No. 8 seed? Of course, Gonzaga has to solve ninth-seeded Georgia first. But if it’s Houston-Gonzaga, it’ll be the Bulldogs trying to play at a breakneck pace against a Cougars defense that breaks necks.
Imagine No. 2 seed Tennessee and No. 3 seed Kentucky each winning their first two games to set up a Sweet 16 showdown at Lucas Oil Stadium. As the Wildcats tried to beat the Vols for the third time in 10 weeks, that place would rock like it hasn’t since Peyton Manning flung passes there.
Who else remembers UCLA’s coaching search to replace Steve Alford in 2019? Tennessee’s Rick Barnes admitted he probably would have left for Westwood if the Bruins would have paid his $5 million buyout. Instead, UCLA brought in Mick Cronin. These schools haven’t met since – but they’re on track to meet Saturday in Lexington, Ky.
Best Storyline
If fourth-seeded Purdue and fifth-seeded Clemson avoid first-round upsets, then the second-round game just might turn into Brad Brownell’s de facto audition for the Indiana job. The Evansville native will look that much better to IU fans (and administrators) if he can take down Matt Painter.
Bracket Buster
Here’s why the NCAA Tournament is so much fun: Purdue appeared in last year’s national title game, played 28 of its 33 games this season against power-conference teams and feels like it underachieved because it didn’t win the Big Ten and get a No. 1 seed for the third year in a row.
High Point didn’t play any power-conference foes this year while claiming its first NCAA Tournament berth — and the Panthers’ fan base nearly filled the arena for the Selection Sunday show. Coach Alan Huss’ rotation features some former high-major players (Mississippi State’s Kimani Hamilton, Texas Tech’s D’Maurian Williams, Kansas’ Bobby Pettiford, Minnesota’s Abdoulaye Thiam) who won’t be cowed by the Boilers. With High Point riding a 14-game winning streak and Purdue having lost six of its last nine, here’s your 4 vs. 13 upset.
The Pick
Because this region is so deep, it’s going to be even tougher for No. 1 Houston and No. 2 Tennessee to get to the regional final. Yet that’s what’s going to happen.
And in an era when the college game has opened up, this might develop into one of the most physical slogs in NCAA Tournament history. Houston boasts the nation’s No. 2 defense and plays at the slowest tempo of any tournament team not named Drake. Tennessee brings the nation’s No. 12 scoring defense and likes to play almost as slowly as Houston. First one to 60 will win — and it might take overtime for the Cougars to seize their first Final Four since 2021.
