Don’t look now but we only have one month remaining of full-scale conference play before tourneys begin. We’re not saying we’re running out of time betting these games … but it might be a little later than ya think.
It’s the second time through the conference portion of the schedule, we’re getting rematches and there is sufficient home and road data to lean heavily into trends. We’ll be doing just that this week on “Wanna Bet?”
Monday: Syracuse at UNC. Tar Heels -9.5 (-110 DK)
Syracuse’s season-long stats don’t tell the real story. The Orange played a ton at home against lesser teams, but on the road and in conference they are getting spanked. And UNC is smashing teams at home. The Orange can’t shoot the three-ball and rely on inside stuff to score; the Heels are a top-five team in the nation defending two-point shots. UNC has a top-20 offense and top-60 defense and have covered four of the last five at home. This is a 15-point spread for us.
Tuesday: Ball State at Bowling Green. Under
Ball State’s offense is a mess. It’s outside the top 300 from behind the arc and when taking two-point shots. They fight to make everything a slog, coming in around 350th in pace, while Bowling Green is not going to run-and-gun, either. Ball State is 13-6 to the under and 7-3 to the under on the road. They’ve played four straight unders and the last three went under by 18.5, 31 and 7.5. Bowling Green is 10-4 to the under as a favorite and 12-7 to the under overall and Vegas has had a helluva time pegging the number correctly for either of these teams.
Wednesday: South Dakota at Kansas City. South Dakota to cover
We’ve been paying a lot of attention to what the Kansas City Kangaroos are doing. It’s pretty special. The ‘Roos are now riding out the string with a lame-duck coach and come in 5-14 ATS overall and 1-8 ATS in conference play. They are among the bottom-10 worst teams in the country if you spend any time perusing their KenPom profile. South Dakota has covered six of nine in conference and beat Kansas City 99-83 in the first meeting.
Thursday: Binghamton at UMBC. UMBC to cover
The Retrievers had their conference title hopes dealt a blow at Vermont last week, but we still believe UMBC could reach the Big Dance. They can come at you in waves and are very sound, especially at home, and Binghamton is short on players and short on talent and has not traveled well at all. The Retrievers won, 78-60, in the initial meeting in New York, and took whatever they wanted from midrange and closer to the rim. The Bearcats are seventh in America East in scoring and last in defense; UMBC has the top scoring differential in the conference.
Friday: Loyola at Davidson. Davidson to cover
We laid off hammering Loyola because we figured they were overdue to cover. And they finally did, last week, against VMI, “only” losing by 14 as 18.5-point dogs. But this is a new week! Loyola lost by 15 when hosting Davidson in early January and has covered twice In eight games since that meeting. Loyola is routinely losing by 15 points or more in conference play and has covered three times all season (in 11 road or neutral-site games). This could be a 20-point Davidson win without the Wildcats playing their A game.
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