We are into the meat of the conference schedules, trends are taking form and, in some cases, teams are already meeting for the second time this season. We love it.
Here are games we’ve circled this week.
Monday: Northwestern State at Stephen F Austin – SFA to cover
This has the potential to get sideways. SFA winning by 20 or more is not out of the question. The Lumberjacks just went on a challenging road trip where they further distanced themselves from much of the Southland Conference and just kept covering anyway. Now they get to come home. The Jacks are 10-1 ATS in conference and 12-2 ATS as a favorite, and they are playing tight defense and have the best rebounding margin in the conference; NW State is ninth of 12 teams in the Southland in rebounding margin. The Lumberjacks won the first meeting by 10 at Northwestern State.
Tuesday: Michigan State at Rutgers – Sparty to cover
Sparty is starting to look like a machine. They are maybe the premier defensive team in the country and they are plowing through the Big Ten. Michigan State has covered four of its last five games, doing so by 24.5, 6, 13.5, 14.5 and 17 points. Rutgers is 0-4 ATS against ranked teams, losing on average by 27 points per game and failing to cover by 8 points per game.
Wednesday: USC at Iowa – Hawkeyes to cover
The Trojans are on a brutal road trip and have struggled to string much together since sharpshooter Rodney Rice was lost for the season. They were at Wisconsin on Sunday and now Iowa midweek. Gulp. USC, like most West Coast teams heading to the Midwest this time of year, has looked totally out of sorts in blowout losses at Michigan and Michigan State during its last road trip. Iowa, meantime, hasn’t played since last Tuesday and this is a team that responds quite well to extended rest. Iowa is 6-3 ATS with four or more days off and maintains one of the more consistent home court advantages in the Big Ten.
Thursday: William & Mary at Elon – Over
William & Mary has the fastest possessions in the country. Yeah, out of all 365 teams. Playing at that breakneck pace, both of these teams can score 85 points here. Elon is a top-50 team in eFG%, but outside the top 300 in KenPom defensive efficiency and defending the three-ball. This should be run-and-gun for 40 minutes (and maybe even a little bit longer).
Friday: Dartmouth at Yale – Yale to cover
Yale looks like the class of the Ivy league to us, and home court is where they are best. The Bulldogs have played twice within the conference at home and covered those games by 7.5 and 24.5 points. They are running what has been a top-25 KenPom offense and they are second in the nation shooting the three-ball. Dartmouth is overmatched here and this should be a Yale win that clears 16 points and possibly 20.
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